Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 29, 2008

by Dick Powell

There have been 139 runnings of the Travers S. (G1), but none closer than

last Saturday's renewal. The only way it could have been closer would be a

dead-heat, but there has never been one in 139 runnings so last Saturday was at

least a tie for the closest finish ever.

If you had COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow), consider yourself lucky. Not only did he

win the bob from Mambo in Seattle (Kingmambo) to win an improbable photo finish, but he could have easily been disqualified.

As the field rounded the far turn, Garrett Gomez had plenty of horse to go

after Da' Tara (Tiznow), who had been on the lead for the first mile. He was

coming up hard behind paceprompter Tizbig (Tiznow) and suddenly needed room to

run. Gomez steered Colonel John to the inside, but that is where Tale of Ekati

(Tale of the Cat) was so he had to snatch him up.

It was at this point that Gomez caused a chain reaction as he veered out

toward Tizbig, who then swerved away from him, tightening up Cool Coal Man

(Mineshaft) and Harlem Rocker (Macho Uno). As this pack of horses was bouncing

around, Macho Again (Macho Uno) almost went down as he was left with nowhere to

go and Pyro (Pulpit) was blocked repeatedly as Shaun Bridgmohan was gearing him up for

the final quarter-mile.

It was a very rough stretch of running and it was caused by Colonel John's

veering in and out. Gomez could have slammed on the brakes himself, but he would

have never won. Instead he went inside, then outside, then spurted clear of the

pack and looked like a winner with a 100 yards to go.

Avoiding all the traffic was Robby Albarado aboard Mambo in Seattle. He

saved ground as much as possible from post 9 and after passing horses on the

inside on the far turn, he swung to the outside for clear sailing down the

center of the track. Mambo in Seattle should have won decisively at this point, but Gomez had other ideas.

The greatest finisher since Jerry Bailey, Gomez can urge a spent horse better

than anyone in today's game and he got busy on Colonel John. Albarado had all

the momentum with Mambo in Seattle and it looked like he would go by him. In

fact, Albarado did beat Gomez to the wire by about a foot. But, somehow, Colonel

John's nose was down at the wire when it counted. Albarado pumped his right hand

with the whip at the wire in a sign that he won. After numerous slow-motion

replays, the camera showed Colonel John as the 139th winner of the Travers

Stakes. Pyro finally got running room and finished third.

So where was the inquiry? Anyone could see that at the top of the stretch

there were horses bouncing around. Yes, the stewards are looking at the replay

even if they don't post the inquiry sign. But it would give the betting public

more confidence in them if they would post the inquiry sign and let us watch the

replay from the angles that they are looking at.

Why is it that the races that have the most at stake seem to receive the

least scrutiny? Not true for other sports; just ours. I know they were running

behind schedule, but the betting public can't help but come away from the

decision not to post the inquiry sign as an example that there are different

rules for different races. Even if not true, it's hard to conclude otherwise.

Colonel John's final time for the 1 1/4 miles was 2:03.20 and he only earned a

BRIS Speed rating of 101, reinforcing the view that this is not a strong crop of

sophomores once you get beyond Big Brown (Boundary).

One final thought about this year's Travers. Each morning, there's a

renovation break during training so that the tractors can harrow and even the

track after a few hours of training. After the track has been harrowed and the

break is over, there is a flurry of activity as trainers prefer to train their

horses over a racing surface that is smooth and even.

So why did the first eight horses in the gate for the Travers get to run over

a harrowed racetrack and the four outside horses have to begin over the part of

the racetrack that had not been harrowed. Granted, they only have to run on it

for a while as the field angles over toward the rail. But if it's so important

that after the horses break from the gate, the ground around where the gate had

been is raked so that no horse is distracted by footprints in the stretch, what

about coming out of the gate? Would it kill the track superintendent to run an

extra tractor around the main track in two turn races so that this doesn't

happen?

Gomez flew back to southern California after the Travers to ride GO

BETWEEN (Point Given) in the Pacific Classic (G1). Unlike in the Travers when he

was aboard a son of Tiznow for Winstar Farm and trainer Eoin Harty,

this time Gomez had to run down WinStar Farm and Harty's Well Armed (Tiznow) to earn the

victory. And after his narrow win on Saturday, Sunday's margin of a neck must

have seemed like the Grand Canyon.

Go Between has earned more than $1 million in purses on the turf and more

than $1.7

million on all weather tracks. Mott had him at Payson Park this winter, Belmont

Park in the spring and now Churchill Downs in the summer. But he's been racing

exclusively on all weather tracks this year, and he should feel right at home at Santa Anita at

10 furlongs. And if it comes down to a gut-wrenching stretch

battle, he has Gomez.

On Saturday morning, DUKE OF MARMALADE (Danehill) continued his undefeated

season with his fifth straight Group 1 stakes win in the Juddmonte

International Stakes (Eng-G1). Switched to Newmarket for Saturday after first being

scheduled to run on Tuesday at York where their entire Ebor meet had to be

abandoned due to torrential rain, the race held together under sunny skies and

firm turf at Newmarket.

Despite the scrambling around that all parties had to do when the race was

re-scheduled, it went pretty much according to form as Duke of Marmalade

utilized his pacesetter Red Rock Canyon (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) to perfection and

came up the rail to win by three-quarters of a length over Phoenix Tower (Chester House).

Farther back in third was Epsom Derby (G1) winner New Approach (Galileo [Ire]), but

he might be the one to watch for the rest of the season. He came out of Epsom

with some ailments and missed the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) and some training. Newmarket

was much firmer than he likes it and he was incredibly rank in the early going,

throwing his head about, and forced Kevin Manning to take him back to last to

get him to settle.

When New Approach finally did make his run, it was on the center of the

course and he ran one-paced to the wire. He'll be a monster next time out, which

might be the Champion S. ((Ire-G1) at The Curragh and a rematch with Duke of

Marmalade.

Duke of Marmalade is now quoted at 5-1 for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

(Fr-G1) at most of the British

bookmaking firms with one notable exception. Ladbrokes, which historically has

had knowledge of Ballydoyle's intentions, is not providing any price on him at

the moment leading me to conclude that they think that trainer Aidan O'Brien

will be represented in Paris by soft-ground specialist Soldier of Fortune (Galileo

[Ire]).

If Duke of Marmalade does not have the Arc as his year-end goal, look for him

to try the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on the all weather track at Santa Anita.