Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 10, 2013

by Dick Powell

Kentucky Derby 139 is finished and in the books. All in all, despite bad

weather, it turned out to be a big success with the highest television ratings

in 21 years. Considering how network television audiences continually go down

due to the addition of more and more channels to watch, it was a great message

from the industry that on our biggest day, our sport is still very popular.

Orb's win has been very popular among racing fans and the momentum should

carry through to the Preakness Stakes. Anytime a horse wins the Derby

convincingly, talk about the Triple Crown immediately surfaces even with the

Preakness not having been run.

But Orb's convincing win and the general assumption that trainer Shug

McGaughey brought him up to the Derby perfectly leads to the speculation that

the performance can be repeated at least once and maybe twice.

One handicapping angle that we used to use years ago was that there were

certain trainers that would work their horses rain or shine. While more trainers

began to schedule workouts around weather forecasts and do very little outside

the barn when the track was wet in the morning, others sent their horses out and

gained valuable experience handling the conditions.

The four that immediately come to mind in New York were Allen Jerkens, Woody

Stephens, Scott Schulhofer and Shug McGaughey. They would always send their

horses out to the track on wet mornings whether it was a gallop or breeze.

A quick look at Orb's past performances in seven races and his past 10

workouts all came on dirt that was listed as fast. Yet, as we saw the other day

on a rainy morning at Belmont, which wiped out Wednesday's turf races, there was

Orb out on a sloppy track doing his work. So, it came as no surprise that he

would be ready for a wet track last Saturday.

Even with the Churchill Downs' main track as wet as it was for the Derby, it

played very fair. There did not seem to be any advantage to the inside or

outside and the fact that the race wound up being dominated by come-from-behind

types was due to the crazy pace that Palace Malice set as he seemed to run off

with Mike Smith in his first start with blinkers.

Orb wound up wide throughout but at least he was always in the clear. He was

far enough back in the pack so that he could move when he wanted to move. The

guy calling all the shots was Joel Rosario, who wound up with his own riding

daily double by going out of town and skipping the Florida and Louisiana Derbys

to win the $10 million Dubai World Cup aboard Animal Kingdom.

When Johnny Velazquez decided to stick with Verrazano and get off Orb, it

opened the door for Rosario to get back on. So, he wound up having his cake and

eating it too and the whole process was brilliantly engineered by him and his

agent, Ron Anderson.

When Orb drew post 16, there was only one way to ride the race and that was

what Rosario did. He stayed on the outside and avoided the temptation to try to

get over to the inside and save ground. When Revolutionary drew post 3, and when

Black Onyx scratched out of post position 1, the winner of the Louisiana Derby

was going to get an inside trip regardless of his rider being Calvin Borel.

Golden Soul was in post 4 and at the start, he broke inward and bumped

Revolutionary, forcing him to race near the back of the pack for most of the

race. Borel never really had to check or steady, but at no point in the first

mile of the race was he able to start passing horses when he wanted to. He had

Golden Soul right in front of him so when Orb was making his move on the

outside, Revolutionary was stuck around the far turn. Unlike the spectacular

inside trips he worked out for Street Sense and Mine That Bird, Revolutionary

was stuck on the inside, idling behind Golden Soul, and was only able to fun

freely at the top of the stretch when that one finally got off the rail.

It was too little too late when the stretch drive of Orb down the middle of

the track saw him blow by Normandy Invasion and seize command. Golden Soul was

the big price that got second and Revolutionary could do no better than third.

With a better trip, I felt that Revolutionary should have at least been second.

After the race, Todd Pletcher indicated that all five of his Derby entrants

would pass the Preakness. He also hinted at running one or even two fillies in

the Belmont, so Orb's path to the Triple Crown will result in the Preakness

almost conceded to him and everyone saving their eggs for the Belmont Stakes

basket.

In his way in Baltimore will be Al Stall Jr.'s Departing, who is coming off a

good third in the Louisiana Derby then a win in the Illinois Derby. Considering

how the Louisiana Derby horses ran at Churchill, his third holds up very well

and he should be a factor in the run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

The issue with Orb is did the Derby take anything out of him and will he

continue to maintain this form cycle that he has been on since the early part of

the Gulfstream Park meet. I don't know how he could have come up to the Derby

any better than he did, and it's unlikely that his luck will carry through two

more races.

But for now, Orb is at the head of the class. He's in good hands and will now

have to come back on short rest for each of his next two starts. There will be

new shooters to face and if given the chance, I think his biggest obstacle will

be Revolutionary in the Belmont.