Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 31, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Metropolitan Handicap (G1) never fails to deliver and this year's 121st

renewal was no exception. Whether it's an exciting finish, a great wagering

opportunity or both, the "Met Mile" is a race to look forward to all year.

Last year we saw the gallant and game Shackleford hold off the hard-charging

Caleb's Posse by a nose in a thrilling renewal. It looked like Caleb's Posse was

a winner with a sixteenth of a mile to go but Shackleford stuck his neck out and

would not be denied.

This year, the nine-horse field was deep and talented and the betting public

settled on Flat Out, the winner of all four starts on the Belmont main track, as

the lukewarm 5-to-2 favorite with Todd Pletcher's Cross Traffic close behind at

29-to-10.

Trying to visualize how the race was going to be run was a real challenge. It

looked like Johnny Velazquez was going to have to use Cross Traffic hard right

from the start since he was in post No. 1 and it looked like the pace pressure

would come from stablemate Discreet Dancer, who was in the stall next to him.

One thing with the Met Mile is that you almost want to see a fast first

half-mile run. The speed horses can run a hole in the wind and take the kick out

of the closers that never quite seem to get there. This year, Cross Traffic

gunned to the front, after breaking inward from the innermost post, but

Velazquez hustled him to the front with a first quarter in :22.40 and the first

half mile in :44.88.

The big surprise, at least for me since I was alive with a big pick 4 with

him, was Discreet Dancer, who not only was not able to run up near the lead but

was running erratically with his neck sticking out. Either he was not getting a

hold of the track or something was wrong but he wound up racing between horses

in traffic before dropping out of it.

That made Cross Traffic even more dangerous and in only his fourth career

start at the age of four, it looked like a valuable Grade 1 stakes win was

within his grasp. Velazquez gave him a bit of a breather around the far turn,

hitting the six-furlong mark in 1:09.20. Mark Valeski offered a challenge at the

top of the stretch but he could not go on and Cross Traffic opened up a clear

advantage with one furlong remaining.

Just when it looked like he might be home free, here came Jerry

Hollendorfer's Sahara Sky, who was rallying hard on the outside under Joel

Rosario. After winning two graded stakes sprints in a row at Santa Anita, he

shipped east last out and just missed in the Carter Handicap (G1) going seven

furlongs.

This was his first start going a mile on the dirt but as Woody Stephens would

say, Hollendorfer was "here for a reason, not the season." The master of

cross-country shipping showed up with a determined horse and the hottest rider

in America.

Like Garrett Gomez for a few years and Jerry Bailey before that, when a great

rider is riding great they tend to win every photo finish. Cross Traffic was

down on the rail and Rosario had Sahara Sky about four paths on the outside.

They were never next to each other in the drive to the wire so it made it harder

to guess who won, but the photo showed Sahara Sky with his nose less than an

inch ahead of Cross Traffic.

The final time of 1:34.17 seconds was good, not great. The field that Sahara

Sky beat was good, not great. But, the Met Mile was great, as always.

The other races at Belmont on Monday, Memorial Day were terrific as well.

Discreet Marq showed why Discreet Cat's second crop was way better than his

first with a sharp, front-end score in the grassy Sands Point Stakes (G2) going

1 1/16 miles on firm going with the rail out at 27 feet. She should be tough up

here in Saratoga going two turns on the turf.

I had Tiz Miz Sue as a best bet on Monday because I thought the race would

set up well for her and lo and behold, it did. She sat behind the pace duel

between Joyful Victory and Authenticity and pulled out in the drive for home to

win by a game half-length.

It was a well-gauged ride by Joe Rocco Jr., who is extremely strong in the

stretch drives of his races. Also, good to see Steve Hobby get a Grade 1 stakes

victory. Not a household name in New York but a top trainer in the Midwest,

Hobby had the six-year-old mare ready for anything at a distance probably short

of her best.

Bob Baffert won the Acorn Stakes (G1) last year with Contested and showed up

this year with Midnight Lucky. The betting public was not going to be fooled

again and made her the 11-to-10 favorite over Kauai Katie at 17-to-10. And that

was despite Kauai Katie being undefeated in six starts going one turn.

Momentary Magic gunned to the front from post 2 and Rosie Napravnik put

Midnight Lucky into the race early and stalked her on the outside. Poor

Velazquez could not have had it worse aboard Kauai Katie as he was stuck down on

the inside with a longshot in front of him that was likely to back up into him

and the horse to beat clear on the outside. Rosie could go any time she wanted

but bided her time to keep Kauai Katie pinned down to the rail.

When the outside closers like Close Hatches arrived on the scene, Rosie gave

Midnight Lucky the signal and the filly drew off to a dominating 6 1/4-length

victory with Close Hatches redeeming herself some after her Kentucky Oaks

debacle.

I don't put her ahead of Beholder yet, but with the longer races coming up at

Saratoga, Midnight Lucky should assume control of the three-year-old filly

division. And, she has only started four times.

One final point. I wish NBC Sports and the rest of the media would stop

discussing Rosie Napravnik as one of the greatest "female" riders. Rosie

Napravnik is a great rider, period.