Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 7, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Derby was run for the 234th time at Epsom Downs

last Saturday and it delivered another spectacular renewal. Just like the Brits

call it The Open Championship, we call it the British Open. They have The Derby,

we have our own Derby (Kentucky). They have a "Darby," we have a "Derby." I

guess when you are first, you make these determinations.

No matter what it is called, it is the most important three-year-old

race in the world and unlike its American counterpart, not the Derby but the

Belmont Stakes, the winners of it will not be shunned by the commercial

breeding industry. Unless you win the Triple Crown, winning the Belmont becomes

a negative in the breeding shed. Just ask Birdstone, who not only

won the Belmont but the Champagne at two and is still not a fashionable

sire.

On Saturday, 14 horses will contest the Belmont and it

shows the difference between American racing, and all it's problems with unsound

horses who seem to lack the stamina of their international rivals, and European

racing, where the Derby is the goal of sophomores and then the Arc de Triomphe,

run at 1 1/2 miles also, at the end of the year is the goal of every horse aged

three and up.

There's a quote that I have read that said that the

Thoroughbred breed is based on a piece of wood -- the winning post at Epsom.

Getting to that post is how Thoroughbreds were measured and still are in Europe.

Epsom is a course that is a challenge for any horse. It's

not just about the uphill climb in the homestretch that tests every fiber of a

horse. It's the ability to run downhill and go around Tattenham Corner without

losing your balance. The course has various tilts to it so the winner is not

just a horse that can get 1 1/2 miles but can handle its undulations while racing

in traffic.

Last Saturday, the heavy favorite was Dawn Approach, winner of the Two

Thousand Guineas going a mile at Newmarket. He was

suspect going the added distance even though his sire, New Approach, won the Derby in 2008 and

his paternal grandsire, Galileo, won it in 2001, but the public made him the odds-on favorite.

Right from the start, you could see the upset was on as

Dawn Approach was cut off coming out of the gate and fought his rider, Kevin

Manning, every step of the way. He was throwing his head from side to side as he

was surrounded by horses and Manning had no choice to steer him to the outside.

Even after he made it to the outside, he would still not settle and resisted

all of Manning's efforts to get him to relax. Manning had to let him go to the

front and once there, he was quickly challenged going down the hill toward Tattenham.

Unlike Sea the Stars in the Arc, who

eventually settled down and switched off, Dawn Approach was in the words of the

commentator, "Lit Up," which is an apt description if you visualize what will

happen when a bomb's fuse is lit.

With Dawn Approach backing up through the field while down

on the field, a herd of challengers were making their moves. Ryan Moore, one of

the greatest big-money riders in the world, had Ruler of the World in

a drive and quickly opened up a margin that he was not to relinquish.

Libertarian flew home for second after a horrible start and

Galileo Rock held on for third.

It was another masterful effort from the team from

Ballydoyle as the familiar silks of Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick

Smith were in the winner's circle once again. Not only did they win, but

their superstar sire, Galileo sired the winner, the

third-place, fourth-place and sixth-place runners. The runner-up was a grandson

and showed once again why Galileo is the world's leading sire and, in my mind,

the greatest sire of all time.

Winner of the Derby in 2001, he has had a spectacular

career at stud that is barely half over. The next day in France, his Intello won the French Derby at Chantilly to further display his

dominance. Like all great sires, his competition will come from his sons. New

Approach is already making noise has he sired the winner of the Oaks the

day before and the runner-up in the Derby. And just wait for the Frankel runners to hit the track in 2015.

What is striking is that a horse can win a major race at 1

1/2 miles and have his offspring sought after at the sales auctions looking for

the next great horse that can get 1 1/2 miles. Yes, they have sprinters in Europe

and sprint sires but their ultimate goal is to win the "Blue Riband of the

Turf."

Dawn Approach's debacle was a bit of an object lesson in

handicapping. He did not get the 1 1/2 miles and many felt that he was too fast to

do it. But it wasn't like he came up short in the deep stretch. He was out of

the race early when he fought his rider soon after leaving the starting gate.

Horses that don't settle will not be successful when

stretching out in distance. They use up too much energy and come up short. The

ones that behave that way and still win, Seattle Slew and Dr. Fager, for example, are in the history books.

A good example was Frankel. Sired by Galileo, you would

think that he had enough pedigree to go farther than 10 furlongs. But early in

his career, he got "Lit Up" going a mile and trainer Henry Cecil was always

concerned that it would happen again if they tried to stretch him out in a race

like the Arc.

Dawn Approach will live to fight another day as long as it

is against his rivals and not his rider. He has immense talent and trainer Jim

Bolger is as crafty as they come. If he can get it together, he will be a force

in the 10-furlong events later in the year. But he hasn't shown that he can

settle in traffic while going slower than he wants so I can't see him in races

like the Arc.

Believe it or not, if he is ever going to get 1 1/2 miles, it would

be in the Breeders' Cup Turf, which is always run with a faster pace which

Dawn Approach should adapt to.

The next time you chuckle when you hear a trainer say that

a horse has a good mind, you might want to take it serious.