Jockey Club Gold Cup

Saturday's $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) takes place at the same

distance as the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) (1 1/4 miles) over the same track

(Belmont Park). It came up very speed-laden and figures to set up for a closer.

BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]) enters the 87th running of the Jockey Club in top

form, having earned his first stakes victory in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic

(G1) last out and a career-high BRIS Speed rating of 106. The four-year-old was

competitive in several big events as a sophomore, finishing second in the

Arkansas Derby (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2) and Super Derby (G2), but he never

quite put it all together. After capturing his first start in 2005 over optional

claiming/allowance rivals, the Beau Greely trainee finished a late-running but

non-threatening third in the Santa Anita H. (G1).

Borrego showed more of the same when taking second in July's Hollywood Gold

Cup (G1), but LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) was the lone speed that afternoon and he

really didn't have much of a chance against his sharp rival. The chestnut colt

trained well for the August 21 Pacific Classic and got a stiff early pace,

with Lava Man and Surf Cat (Sir Cat) dueling on the front end while he trailed

near the back of the pack. On the far turn, Borrego began circling opponents and

he closed powerfully through the short stretch, pulling clear for a half-length

win and recording a century-topping BRIS Late Pace rating. Shipped to Belmont

several weeks ago to acclimate to the track, Borrego has trained well in

preparation for Gold Cup, posting a bullet five-furlong move last week (fastest

of 14), and the pace should be hot once again. We'll look for Borrego to keep

moving forward with a late-running score.

Travers S. (G1) winner FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor) will be facing elders

for the first time and is the horse to beat. Trainer Todd Pletcher has entered a

rabbit entrymate, BISHOP COURT HILL (Holy Bull), to ensure a contested, fast

pace up front, but Flower Alley has never been much of a closer, taking the Jim

Dandy S. (G2) in wire-to-wire fashion two starts back. John Velazquez will

likely try to take a big hold in the early stages, but the chestnut colt

probably won't be too far back stalking the pace. Flower Alley owns an excellent

turn of foot and has earned tremendous Speed ratings of 110 and 109 from his

last two victories. He's a huge threat to string together three straight wins.

IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr) probably isn't at his optimum distance going 10 furlongs, but

the gray colt enters on the upswing for conditioner Kristin Mulhall and could

close for part at nice odds. He's definitely a strong closer, winning the

seven-furlong Pat O'Brien H. (G2) with a sweeping last-to-first move last out,

and he showed his class at a route when sharp earlier this year when finishing

fast to just miss by a nose against Rock Hard Ten (Kris S.) in February's 1

1/8-mile Strub S. (G2). Imperialism looks dangerous.

SUN KING (Charismatic) can't be dismissed from top-three consideration.

Following a disappointing Triple Crown campaign, the three-year-old was

freshened by trainer Nick Zito and returned to the races in much better form,

winning the Leonard Richards S. (G3), finishing second in the Haskell

Invitational (G1) and capturing the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) by 4 1/2 lengths in

his last start. His Speed numbers are respectable from those starts and the

stalker should offer a rally on the far turn Saturday, but we're not convinced

that 10 furlongs is his best distance. We will use the improving colt in some

exotics.

Lava Man displayed exceptional form this summer for trainer Doug O'Neill,

winning the Hollywood Gold Cup by 8 3/4 lengths (good for a 113 Speed rating)

and finishing an extremely gutsy third in the Pacific Classic, beaten only three

parts of a length, after dueling on fast fractions. He must bounce back off that

grueling performance and doesn't face a promising pace scenario here, but we

wouldn't be shocked to see the much-improved four-year-old hang on for a small

share.

SUAVE (A.P. Indy) recorded his first big win in the Saratoga Breeders' Cup H.

(G2) last out, but he was lone speed on a slow pace that day. He could get

caught up chasing the pace from his rail post on Saturday and may not have

enough starch left for the stretch run. GRAND REWARD (Storm Cat) exits a

dreadful effort in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G2). He could add some to the early

pace, but the four-year-old probably won't be much of a factor here. Bishop

Court Hill will take them as far as he can on the lead but isn't a distance

horse.