Keeneland Daily Notebook

KEENELAND DAILY NOTEBOOK

OPENING DAY PREVIEW, OCTOBER 6,

2006

by Brian P. Turner

Since the day Keeneland first opened its doors in the fall of 1936, the

Central Kentucky track has prided itself on maintaining an appearance and feel

which was styled after the classic European race courses while attempting to

stay at the forefront of

modern technology. Never has the dedication to the horse and the technological

side of the sport been more pronounced than it will be at the 2006 Fall Meet. The changes will be noticed even by the most causal

enthusiast of Keeneland.

Keeneland becomes the third

North American race track, following in the footsteps of Woodbine and Turfway, to

install Polytrack, a mixture of silica sand, fibers, and recycled materials

which provides a softer cushion on the track. A wax coating covers the material,

allowing water to drain freely from the top surface to the layers below, which

in turn provides a more consistent track regardless of the weather conditions.

For long time followers of Keeneland racing, the Polytrack will likely create a whole new ball

game with the long-perceived

speed bias.

While this bias has been blown out of proportion at times, there were

definitely occasions in the past that it reared its head to the point that the

first runner to reach the rail with the lead greatly enhanced his/her chances of reaching the finish line first. The new surface, combined with a

reconfiguration of the track itself that has produced wider turns and a longer

stretch, could bring the old bias to an end forever.

As for the racing itself, Keeneland begins its 17-day meet on Friday. Over the

course of three weeks, the Fall Meet will offer 19 rich stakes races worth more

than $5

million in purses. Keeneland will kick things off with the Fall Stars Weekend,

where a total of seven stakes races will be contested over the first three days

of the meet. The outcomes of these races will likely have a major impact into who goes into the starting gate for the

Breeders' Cup races at Churchill Downs on November 4.

Three of the four Grade 1 events during the meet will be offered this weekend, with two

on Saturday and one Sunday. Saturday's card features the Shadwell Turf Mile

(G1), for three-year-olds and up, and the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for two-year-olds

at 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack. Sunday's main event is the Spinster S. (G1) for fillies and mares, three-years-old

and up, going nine furlongs.

The final Grade 1 event offering of the meet is the Queen Elizabeth II

Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) for three-year-old fillies at nine furlongs on the lawn October

14. Due to the close timing, most serious contenders for Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) will not contest QEII.

Nick Zito should once again be a force during the Fall Meet. He's captured

the past two training titles at Keeneland and always point for the short

meetings. Last spring, the Hall of Fame trainer won with

30 percent of his starters, and last fall he saddled nine winners for a 32

percent win rate. No matter how his horses have been running beforehand, they always

come to life once they reach Keeneland. Todd Pletcher finished second in spring

but does not typically send a large contingency for the Fall Meet. It wouldn't

be surprising though if the New York based trainer sent more runners this fall,

in light of the announcement that he is sending a stable to California to train

over an all weather surface. Steve Asmussen has done very well in the past, but he is currently sitting out a suspension.

However, assistant Scott Blasi took over most of his horses and could easily be

a force at the upcoming meet.

Patrick Biancone will undoubtedly have several in his barn sitting on ready

for the meet as he won with 19 percent of his starters here in the spring and

appears to be a proponent of the Polytrack. It will be interesting to note

though whether the new surface deters some of the more well known and

traditional trainers from competing or actually draws more names not usually

associated with Keeneland in for the meet.

Jockeys Julian Leparoux and Rafael Bejarano were forced to share the riding

title in the spring with 17 winners each. Last fall, before Leparoux arrived on

the scene, Bejarano dominated with 30 victories. Shaun Bridgmohan many times

goes unnoticed by the betting public, but he is always in the thick of the rider

standings. In the spring, he won with 20 percent of his mounts and produced an

average win payoff of $30.60.

With all of the stakes racing leading up to the Breeders' Cup, we

will undoubtedly see some of the country's top jockeys at one point or another

while many of Keeneland's regular colony will be off to other locations to ride

in big races all across the country.

Given the change in racing surface, it will be a bit difficult to determine

what to expect in regards to the racing itself for the meet. It's probable that

there will be at least a little change as far as a bias is concerned, but to get

an idea as to what to expect at Keeneland, we will take a look at the last two

Turfway meets.

The one thing that does jump out about Polytrack is that the greater the

distance of the race, the less likely speed horses will be able to make it into

the winner's circle. A look at sprint races from the last two Turfway meets

shows that speed is less effective as distances increase. For example, horses on

or near the pace won 67 percent of the races contested at 5 1/2 furlongs the

last two meets. Last winter's meet concluded with horses on or near the pace

winning 66 percent of the six furlong races and 61 percent of the 6 1/2 furlong

events. While the advantage wasn't as great this fall, speed still had the

slight edge as horses on or near the pace won 55 percent of the six furlong

races and 53 percent of those contested at 6 1/2 furlongs.

In route races though, the advantage went to horses closing from off the

pace. Last winter, 54 percent of the eight furlong races and 61 percent of the 1

1/16 miles races were won by closers. This fall, the advantage is more

pronounced as 63 percent of the eight furlong races and a whopping 77 percent of

the 1 1/16 miles races were won by runners with an off the pace running style.

Whether these trends hold true remains to be seen, but it gives food for thought

for handicappers.

As for the Keeneland turf, closers generally dominate on the grass, but this

changed in the spring when horses on or near the pace held a clear advantage at

both nine and 12 furlongs. Given the limited number of races contested at this

distance, it is difficult to determine if this is a trend change or simply an

aberration.

Keeneland will be making a change to the wagering format for the meet as they

introduce the 50 cent Pick 4. Following in the footsteps of the highly

successful 10 cent Superfecta wager, the 50 cent Pick 4 will allow novice

bettors to play for big dollar payoffs with small investments, in addition to

allowing experienced players a chance to spread their wagers and bag some of the

healthy payoffs. The take out for the Pick 4, as well as all other exotic

wagers at Keeneland, is 19 percent, while the take out for Win, Place, and Show

wagers is 16 percent.

Opening Day Outlook - Friday, October 6

Keeneland kicks off its fall meet with a pair of graded stakes races, each of

which could have implications for the Breeders' Cup. A field of 14

two-year-old fillies is set to go to the gate for the 1 1/16-mile

Alcibiades S. (G2), and this race will undoubtedly produce some runners for the Juvenile Fillies (G1).

UNTOUCHED TALENT (Storm Cat) will be invading Keeneland

off of a second-place effort in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante S. (G1)

where she rallied from 10 lengths off the pace to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind

winner, Point Ashley (Point Given). The bay was also extremely impressive in

taking the Sorrento S. (G3), also at Del Mar, where she stalked the pace early

before opening up in the stretch for an easy three-length victory. Friday will

be her first

attempt at a route, and her pedigree says she should relish the added ground.

Untouched Talent's versatile running style should allow jockey Patrick Valenzuela to have her

well placed regardless of the pace scenario that develops on the lead.

SHE'S INCLUDED (Include) finished only a nose behind Untouched Talent last

out in the Del Mar Debutante and is more than capable of turning the tables

here. The bay has posted three solid works since her last start, including a

bullet clocking of 1:13 for six furlongs at Hollywood on September 23. Jockey

Alex Solis, who has been aboard in each of her last two starts, has made the

trip east for the mount, only adding to her appeal. APPEALING ZOPHIE (Successful

Appeal) is coming off of a visually impressive effort in the seven-furlong Spinaway S. (G1) at Saratoga where she took the lead out of the gate and never

looked back on her way to a very solid 5 1/4-length victory. The dark bay is

definitely the speediest member of the field and is more than capable of

stealing this one if they let her have her own way on the lead.

COTTON BLOSSOM (Broken Vow) finished second to Appealing Zophie last out in

the Spinaway, and she was closing well late for the always dangerous Pletcher.

She could avenge that setback if she handles the added ground. X STAR (Pulpit) hit

the wire only a head behind Cotton Blossom in that same event and, given her

pedigree and the fact that trainer Larry Jones wins 14 percent of his starts in

the "1st at Route" trainer category, is another that could appreciate the

stretch out.

LISA M (Banker's Gold) rallied from 16 lengths off the lead to claim the

victory by a nose last out in the Arlington Breeders' Cup Lassie S. (G3). The

chestnut should be making up ground at the end and could repeat with the right

pace in front of her. BEAUTIFUL VISION (Came Home) is coming off of a third

place finish in the Bassinette S. at River Downs and an in the money finish is

not out of the question with any improvement at all. PRO PINK (Touch Gold) was

beaten 13 1/2 lengths in the Spinaway, but she could have an impact if she returns to

the form she showed in May when she finished second in the Kentucky Breeders'

Cup S. (G3) at Churchill Downs.

GATORIZE (Exploit) is a perfect two for two in her short career though this

will be her first attempt against stakes-competition. However, her experience

over the all weather track at Turfway can't hurt. HER

MAJESTY (Giant's Causeway) is coming off of a four length maiden score at Turfway.

While her BRIS Speed rating looks a bit light compared to these, she

has the combination of Biancone and Leparoux in her corner, which automatically

makes her a threat. GET READY BERTIE (More Than Ready) rallied from over four

lengths off the lead for a solid 6 3/4 length victory against maiden special

weight company last out at Arlington. Though that was a solid victory, she may

not be quite ready to handle the likes of these.

CALL THE KITTY (Langfuhr) finished third, beaten a half-length, last out

in the Arlington Breeders' Cup Lassie. As solid as that effort

was, she will need to show more to be a factor here. BOAT'S GHOST (Silver Ghost)

missed by three parts of a length last out in a minor stakes race at Prairie

Meadows. It will take a major move forward to have an impact here. BEL AIR

BEAUTY (Smart Strike) comes from the always dangerous barn of Frank Brothers, but

she is still a maiden and would be a surprise.

Also on Friday, a field of 11 is set to contest the Sycamore Breeders' Cup S.

(G3) for three-year-olds and upward going 12 furlongs on the lawn. REVVED UP

(Sultry Song) is a model of consistency as he has been in the money in 20 of his

28 career starts on the grass, which includes 13 wins and over $1 million in

earnings. The gray returned from a short vacation last out with a respectable

victory against listed stakes-company at Monmouth and could be sitting on a nice

effort.

ROCHESTER (Green Dancer) is no stranger to the Keeneland lawn as he has

compiled a career record of 11-4-2-2 here. As a matter of fact, three of those

victories came in this very event, which includes last year's running where he

rallied from 6 1/2 lengths off of the pace setters for a solid 3 3/4-length

victory. It would not be a surprise to see the 10-year-old gelding return to the

winner's circle once more. RUSH BAY (Cozzene) is coming off of a nice victory in

the Nijinsky S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine and stands a solid chance of challenging

for it all here. The bay appears to be the speed of the field and could try to lead the field gate to wire.

LOUVE ROYALE (Ire) (Pientre Celebre) will be taking on the boys but appears

to stand a solid chance of getting a piece here despite not reaching the

winner's circle in any of her last three starts. The five-year-old mare has a

nice late turn of foot and she's never been off

the board in three tries at Keeneland. ALWAYS FIRST (GB) (Barathea [Ire])

returned from a nine month vacation with a nice win against listed

stakes-company on September 23 at Delaware. The Grade 2 winner is more than

capable and could be sitting on a top effort in his second start off the layoff.

PORFIDO (Chi) (Mash One) was a terror in South America but has not been able

to get on track in two starts for Bobby Frankel. Still, the bay is subject to

wake up at any time and could be capable of challenging for an upset at a square price. BIG PRARIE (Danzig) has visited the winner's circle in

each of his last two starts against conditioned allowance runners and could

share here with his best. LORD CARMEN (Ordway) actually finished three parts of

a length in front of Rochester last out in the Kentucky Cup Turf (G3), and it

wouldn't be a surprise to see him get a piece here.

RAMAZUTTI (Honor Grades) possesses a nice early turn of foot but may not be

on par with Rush Bay if it comes to a speed duel through the stretch. HOST (Tabasco

Cat) made his first start of the year a winning one in the John Henry S. at

Arlington, but he'll need to move forward to be a factor here. SINGLE MON (Maria's

Mon) has won two of his three starts on the grass this year but may find the

going to be too tough against these.

Friday's forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and a high of 60.

Friday's Best Plays

1ST - MAIZELLE (Seeking The Gold) is coming off of a respectable career debut

at Saratoga where she rallied from 11 lengths off the lead to miss by three

lengths against maiden special weight company. The chestnut will be stretching

out to a route for her second career effort and her pedigree indicates she

should handle that with ease. The three-year-old filly possesses the best BRIS

Speed rating in the field and her BRIS Pace ratings indicate that she was

finishing with a tremendous closing turn of foot against a slow early pace.

Trainer Pletcher wins 28 percent of his starts in the "1st at Route" trainer

category and 30 percent of his starts in the "2nd Career Race" category, only

adding to the list of things to like.

3RD - TRIPLE IT (Put It Back) will be taking a bit of a class drop in search

of her first win since May. The bay's recent BRIS Speed ratings are the best of

this field and her BRIS Pace ratings indicate that she should have things her

own way on the lead early, leaving her with plenty in the tank for the run

to the finish line. The three-year-old filly tops the field in BRIS Prime Power

by over six points and also holds the advantage in BRIS Class rating as well.

Though she has yet to try an all weather surface, she has competed at many

different tracks and run well at all of them. She should be able to

carry her form over to this surface as well.