Kentucky Derby 2006

The greatest two minutes in sports, Saturday's $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1)

is wide open. Seldom have we seen such a deep group of contenders on the

first Saturday in May, and we'll willingly admit our uncertainty toward the

outcome as we praise the virtues of more than half the runners in the 20-horse

field. The 1 1/4-mile event sets up to be a terrific race.

Sweetnorthernsaint catapulted into the Derby picture with his Illinois Derby victory (Jim Tyrrell/Horsephotos.com) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) has the look of a winner. A dominant 10-length, wire-to-wire hero in his stakes debut at Laurel Park on February 4, the Florida-bred gelding stepped up in class and drew the 10 hole over Aqueduct's inner track in the Gotham S. (G3) two starts back. After rating off the pace, the dark bay found his best stride late in the stretch, closing with a rush to miss the win by three-quarters of a length. He earned a 107 BRIS Speed and a 108 Late Pace rating. The Michael Trombetta trainee improved substantially next time out in the 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby (G2). Sitting patiently off slow early fractions, Sweetnorthernsaint struck with an impressive turn of foot in upper stretch, quickly opening up en route to a 9 1/4-length decision while being kept to task through the stretch by Kent Desormeaux. He earned a 114 Speed and 121 Late Pace rating, and we believe Sweetnorthernsaint has more to offer on Saturday. The stalker has trained well at Churchill Downs, recording a six-furlong bullet move in 1:11 3/5, and he's well drawn in post 11. The powerful finisher rates top honors. Many have questioned the merits of the Arkansas-based three-year-olds this year, but we think LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) is all racehorse. Trained by the outstanding horseman Bob Holthus, the chestnut colt didn't favor the turf or Turfway's Polytrack early in his career, but his fortunes changed when switching to the main track for good in December at Louisiana Downs. Following a couple runaway victories in lower-level races, Lawyer Ron drew off to an 8 1/4-length score in his graded debut, the Risen Star S. (G3), in mid-January, and registered a 105 Speed rating. He then moved to Oaklawn Park, where he posted convincing victories in the Southwest S., Rebel S. (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2).

The Southwest was taken in wire-to-wire fashion, but Lawyer Ron displayed a

new dimension in the Rebel, rating off the pace until blowing away the field on

the far turn. He can win the Kentucky Derby with those same tactics. Jockey John

McKee asked for the sophomore's run a little too early in the Arkansas Derby and

must avoid making the same mistake at Churchill Downs as he utilizes his mount's

natural speed to gain decent positioning from post 17, but there's so much pace

in the field that we envision Lawyer Ron settling into a perfect stalking

position right behind the early leaders. He's trained well over the track

(five-furlong bullet move) and appears set for another big showing. We love the

way Lawyer Ron finishes and have great respect for his chances.

Trainer Bob Baffert has a very dangerous trio in BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the

Gold), POINT DETERMINED (Point Given) and SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste), and

we'll tab Wood Memorial (G1) winner Bob and John to round out the top three. A

well-beaten third in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) in mid-December, Bob and John

opened his three-year-old season with an easy allowance win and then rolled to a

4 1/2-length triumph in the Sham S. (G3). He didn't beat the best competition in

that spot, but he did it the right way, earning a 106 Speed figure. The San

Felipe S. (G2) came next and proved to be a valuable learning experience for the

improving colt as Bob and John got slammed at the start, dropping far off the

pace for the first time in his career. The dark bay displayed a nice turn of

foot while rallying four wide on the far turn, rapidly passing rivals to close

to within a length of the lead at the top of the stretch, but he got a little

tired late and settled for third. In the Wood, Bob and John couldn't afford to

allow KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) to steal the race and tracked his rival

through fast early fractions before moving willingly to engage his rival on the

far turn. After working hard to get past the game pacesetter in the stretch, Bob

and John drew clear in a very encouraging performance. The Kentucky Derby should

set up better for him, as Bob and John eases back off fast early fractions, and

he should relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. A winner in three of his last four

starts, Bob and John has always had the look of a horse who has more to offer.

We expect to see his best on Saturday.

Point Determined has rallied well in his last two starts, runner-up finishes

that netted him 113 and 100 Late Pace numbers, and we're anxious to see how

he'll perform given a much better pace scenario. In the San Felipe two starts

back, he raced close to the pace early before dropping back and then re-rallying

in the stretch, and we like the way he altered course and split horses that

afternoon because traffic is a definite concern in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby.

The bay colt had no chance in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as BROTHER DEREK

(Benchmark) dominated on the front end, but Point Determined found his best

stride late to overhaul A. P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) and blew past Brother Derek in

the gallop out. He registered triple-digit Speed ratings for both efforts and

has continued to train well in the mornings for Baffert at Santa Anita. The

talented young rider Rafael Bejarano has the mount, and Point Determined is

a dangerous threat from off the pace.

Barbaro successfully transferred his stellar turf form to the dirt (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com) BARBARO (Dynaformer) eats up ground with his massive stride and has never lost in his career. We're not crazy about his light campaign (one race in the last 13 weeks) or his likely price (could easily go favored), but we can't fault the horse. Switching to the main track for trainer Michael Matz two starts back in the Holy Bull S. (G3), Barbaro sailed to a comfortable win over the sloppy track and then showed his class with an ultra-game effort in the Florida Derby (G1), drawing clear late to win by a half-length. He earned 104 Speed ratings for both efforts, and his last race should toughen him up for Saturday's grueling task. Barbaro has been eager to run in the early stages of all his races, but he's no confirmed front runner and should be able to settle into a perfect stalking trip under Edgar Prado. When he gets to the top of the stretch, the dark bay colt always has at least one more gear in reserve. We don't like the spacing of his schedule coming into the Derby, but Barbaro may be talented enough to buck history. After working his magic with Giacomo (Holy Bull) last year, John Shirreffs is back with another outsider in A. P. Warrior. He certainly looks better than Giacomo did at this point last year, and the Grade 2 winner appears capable of launching a big move from off the pace. Unwilling to rate in his first start this year, A. P. Warrior was turned over to Shirreffs and got a jockey change to Nakatani. The new connections paid immediate dividends as the dark bay colt settled nicely and rallied to a half-length score over Point Determined in the San Felipe. We won't hold his third in the Santa Anita Derby against him because there was no speed to run with Brother Derek that afternoon, forcing Nakatani to go after the pacesetter early, but A. P. Warrior still earned solid Speed and Late Pace numbers for his effort. He's recorded three sharp workouts at Hollywood Park since then, and A. P. Warrior looms as a dangerous presence in the Derby with his push-button acceleration.

One of the top-ranked Kentucky Derby contenders earlier this year, BLUEGRASS

CAT (Storm Cat) has fallen completely out of favor and will be overlooked on

Derby Day. We would advise caution to those dismissing his chances. Winner of

the nine-furlong Remsen S. (G2) in late November, the Todd Pletcher runner

opened his 2006 campaign with a victory in the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay

Downs, his fourth consecutive triumph, but he's dropped two straight since then.

In the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), the bay colt threw a shoe on the far turn

but still managed a creditable runner-up finish. In the Blue Grass S. (G1), he

never ran a step, but that race may be a complete throw-out due to the quirky Keeneland track. Bluegrass Cat, who has earned Speed ratings as high as 104, is

better than he showed in those last two races, and he might rebound with a big

showing in the Kentucky Derby from just off the pace.

STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude) is definitely one to consider for the exotics. The

late runner proved that he could pass a lot of horses on the far turn in

Arkansas this year, and the Kentucky Derby couldn't set up any better for him.

We expect to see him unleash his terrific late speed leaving the backstretch on

Saturday, as he probably makes up a ton of ground by the time he straightens

into the stretch, but the question is whether he can sustain his momentum

through the stretch. His Speed ratings aren't encouraging in that regard (career

high 98), but the gray colt has made excellent progress for trainer Dan Peitz

this season and may have more left to offer.

What to do with Sinister Minister is a question that has plagued us. He could

lead wire to wire, or burn out on the front end and fade to last. If the track

is exhibiting a supreme speed bias on Saturday, we'd recommend keeping him in

the mix. His Blue Grass romp was amazing, as he blazed his way through

fast early fractions and never lost any steam, extending his margin to 12 3/4

lengths while earning a field-best 116 Speed rating, but the Keeneland track

definitely favored him. Sinister Minister hasn't shown any willingness to get to

the lead and slow the pace down -- he keeps going full throttle regardless --

and that's a concern in a 1 1/4-mile race packed with other speed types. He may

be a special horse who keeps showing more with another scintillating success on

the lead, but nobody knows for sure what to make of him coming into the Kentucky

Derby. Your call.

Brother Derek is the morning-line favorite (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com) Brother Derek might be the best horse in the field at nine furlongs, but the 1 1/4-mile distance and his front-running style could conspire against him. We still have plenty of admiration for his talents, as he's won all six starts around two turns and earned Speed ratings as high as 108, and post 18 may a blessing for the Dan Hendricks trainee, allowing Alex Solis to settle into a stalking position as the speedballs wing it to his inside. Brother Derek has captured six of eight career starts and appears to be heading into the Kentucky Derby in good order. CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria's Mon) owns triple-digit Late Pace numbers in his last five starts and will attempt to come charging from the clouds. Trained by Northern California kingpin Jerry Hollendorfer, the gray colt is a stakes winner this year and is bred to relish 10 furlongs. He was too forwardly placed last time behind a slow pace in the Illinois Derby, but that won't be a problem Saturday. Cause to Believe still has some class concerns, but we won't be surprised to see him rebound a vastly improved showing that nets him a top three placing. JAZIL (Seeking the Gold) has only a maiden win to his credit, but the late runner remains a threat to show up with big performance. He closed with a rush to finish second in the Wood, registering a 114 Late Pace rating while covering his final quarter-mile in less than 23 seconds, and he turned in a nice work at Churchill for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. We're concerned about the large field and Jazil's inexperience, but the Shadwell Stables colorbearer has proven that he can fly late. PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow), who captured the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill last November, didn't return to the races this year until the Rebel in mid-March and disappointed with a dull seventh. The Steve Asmussen charge improved last time when finishing third in the Arkansas Derby and is certainly eligible to take another step forward here. He likes the track and has been training well (working a bullet five furlongs recently), but we're worried about the distance. Still, Private Vow is a threat to show up with a top performance that puts him in the mix.

SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) is probably trying to do too much too soon

here with only three career starts to his credit, and the unbeaten colt

didn't even make his career bow until February 11. We liked his victory in the

Lexington S. (G2) last time as the Barclay Tagg-trained chestnut changed running

styles and won from off the pace, and Showing Up looks like a very athletic colt

who's probably nimble enough to navigate a bulky field. We just think his

inexperience will catch up to him.

SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) could face too much pressure from Sinister

Minister and others to be effective. He exits a sterling front-running

performance in the Florida Derby, giving Barbaro all he could handle through the

stretch before grudgingly settling for second, and the Dale Romans runner owns plenty of room for further improvement

in his third start this season. Sharp Humor's never won around two turns and may

not want to run this far at this point in his career, but he is very talented.

STORM TREASURE (Storm Boot) is a late runner with class issues in this spot.

Keyed Entry is very quick and may be forced to show speed from post 3, but we

can't envision him getting 1 1/4 miles under these circumstances. DEPUTY

GLITTERS (Deputy Commander) has done his best racing close to the pace and

figures to get shuffled far back in the early stages here. We can't recommend

his chances. FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) is a one-paced maiden winner exiting a dull

prep race with possible distance limitations. SEASIDE RETREAT (King Cugat)

brings poor credentials into the race and appears to be overmatched.