Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 18, 2011

by James Scully

Three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races were offered last Saturday and BRETHREN

(Distorted Humor) proved to be the biggest star, recording an easy four-length

victory in his stakes debut, the Sam F. Davis S. (G3). We'll take a closer look

at his performance below, as well as a recap of the Robert B. Lewis (G2) and El

Camino Real Derby (G3).

We also have a dynamite race to preview this Saturday, the Risen Star S. (G2)

at Fair Grounds.

Unfortunately, a couple of notable horses, Boys at Tosconova (Officer) and

Tapizar (Tapit), were officially withdrawn from Kentucky Derby consideration in

the last week. Boys at Tosconova wasn't a big surprise, given that he already

missed a scheduled prep in the January 30 Holy Bull S. (G3) and wasn't working

for Richard Dutrow, and the Hopeful (G1) winner appeared to be a fringe

candidate for 1 1/4 miles anyway. His connections will be able to point him

toward lucrative races at middle/sprint distances later this year if healthy.

The news of Tapizar's bone chip provides an explanation for his rank

behavior in the Lewis, but it's still very disheartening -- he looked like a

serious Derby contender based on his smashing victory in the January 15 Sham S.

(G3). The Steve Asmussen runner could be back in training this summer.

The Derby is 11 weeks from Saturday.

Sam F. Davis

Brethren didn't beat any quality rivals or record a big Speed number (94 BRIS

Speed rating) at Tampa Bay Downs last Saturday, but there was a lot to like

about his stylish victory.

Making only his third career start, and first at two turns, the bay colt

broke a step slowly from post 10 and rushed up to secure three-wide positioning

into the first turn of the 1 1/16-mile event. He settled into a perfect stalking

position down the backstretch, about a length behind the pacesetter through a

moderate opening half-mile in :48 1/5, and dragged himself to the lead midway on

the far turn.

When jockey Ramon Dominguez asked for run turning for home, the response was

immediate; Brethren quickly accelerated away from the pack and the race was

over. Dominguez took a look around in midstretch for any possible threats and

then wrapped up on Brethren for the final sixteenth of a mile, winning with

plenty in the tank.

The Todd Pletcher pupil narrowly captured his first start, a six-furlong

maiden special weight at Belmont Park on October 16, and then posted a 1

3/4-length score over entry-level allowance foes going a one-turn mile at

Churchill Downs on November 27. A half-brother to 2010 Derby hero Super Saver,

Brethren entered his sophomore season full of promise but with much to prove.

The Davis was a very encouraging step in that direction, and he's got the

potential to offer much more going forward.

I expect to see Brethren's Speed ratings (Saturday was a career-best)

increase significantly as he continues to improve, and the Davis didn't appear

to take much out of the lightly-raced sophomore, who has plenty of time for two

more preps before the Derby.

While the March 19 Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn is a logical possibility, the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) became an attractive option Wednesday when

Gulfstream Park wrote a one-turn overnight handicap for UNCLE MO (Indian

Charlie). The early Derby favorite hasn't been confirmed for that race, but it's

obvious what's happening (Nick Zito wanted a 1 1/8-mile race for DIALED IN

[Mineshaft] on the same day but didn't get it). Uncle Mo will likely stay at

Gulfstream.

That move had to burn the folks at Tampa Bay Downs, but they could still get

Brethren. He's a three-year-old on the rise.

Robert B. Lewis

Tapizar was headstrong early in the Sham before settling down for his rider

on the backstretch, but there was nothing Garrett Gomez could do to calm him

down in the Robert B. Lewis -- his mount was out of control like a horse bolting

to the outside rail on the turn. Tapizar maintained a straight course down the

backstretch Saturday but was tossing his head back and forth in an effort to run

off.

Give him credit for battling on gamely to midstretch, but Tapizar was able to

hang in there for so long because the two horses to his outside -- ANTHONY'S

CROSS (Indian Charlie) and RIVETING REASON (Fusaichi Pegasus) -- weren't

finishing fast.

Anthony's Cross wound up edging Riveting Reason by a nose on the wire, but

they needed nearly 14 seconds to run the final furlong. The winner received an

84 BRIS Late Pace rating, and I thought it would be much lower.

Anthony's Cross earned an 89 Speed rating when grinding his way to a maiden

special weight victory two starts previously at Churchill Downs and recorded a

non-threatening third, five lengths back of the runner-up, in the Sham. Out of

an Unbridled mare, the Eoin Harty-trained colt owns a solid pedigree for the 1

1/4-mile trip, but he can't be regarded as a serious contender yet.

Riveting Reason isn't the top Derby prospect in the small stable of

owner/trainer Myung Kwon Cho -- that distinction belongs to unbeaten multiple

stakes winner PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus). Riveting Reason was multiple

Grade 1-placed as a maiden last year, and he was in the right place at the right

time to grab another placing Saturday. The rest of the Lewis field was even

slower.

El Camino Real Derby

Off as the 1-2 favorite in the El Camino Real Derby, COMMA TO THE TOP

(Bwana Charlie) advanced into a threatening position at the top of the stretch

but came up empty in the final furlongs, eventually weakening to fourth. The

Peter Miller trainee showed that he liked the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields last

fall, recording a pair of runaway victories, but faltered badly while trying 1

1/8 miles for the first time Saturday.

He remains a candidate to bounce back with an improved showing next time

following the tightener, but Comma to the Top is bred top and bottom for speed.

He's not going to carry that speed a classic route of ground this spring. The

Grade 1-winning gelding was able to dominate three consecutive stakes on the

front end last season, scoring at distances up to 1 1/16 miles, but it's a

different ballgame this year.

SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver) rallied off the pace to win going away in

the El Camino Real Derby, and it wasn't surprising to see him handle the

synthetic track considering his fine turf form. Winner of the grassy Eddie Logan

S. in his previous outing, Silver Medallion wasn't particularly fast on the

turf, and he didn't turn heads with his performance in the El Camino Real Derby,

netting only a 91 BRIS Speed rating. His connections could look for another spot

on synthetics like the March 26 Vinery Racing Spiral S. (G3) at Turfway Park.

Other races

TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road) recorded a good-looking victory when making

his stakes debut in the February 5 Whirlaway S., rallying to a two-length

decision, and would have won by further if he had switched leads earlier in the

stretch. The Graham Motion trainee came into the 1 1/16-mile event off a pair of

convincing wins at Laurel Park, and he netted a 103 BRIS Speed rating over the

sloppy track at Aqueduct. The March 5 Gotham S. (G3) is next.

SHACKLEFORD (Forestry) earned a berth in the February 26 Fountain of Youth

(G2) when posting a 2 1/4-length tally in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Gulfstream

Park on February 5. A maiden winner two starts back at Churchill Downs,

Shackleford owns good speed and rates as a nice prospect for Dale Romans.

Runner-up CASPER'S TOUCH (Touch Gold) also has a potentially big upside. He

experienced a terrible trip early and was knocked sideways in upper stretch

before re-rallying. Casper's Touch will head to the Fountain of Youth for Kenny

McPeek.

FREE ENTRY (Tale of the Cat) has now reeled off two straight wins at

Gulfstream Park for Chad Brown, breaking his maiden on January 23 prior to a

sharp 1 3/4-length allowance victory going a one-turn mile on February 13. He is

bred to run long on his dam's side and has posted a couple of commendable Speed

figures in his last two starts.

ALBERGATTI (Unbridled's Song) is playing catch-up, but the Asmussen-trained

gray posted a sharp maiden tally going seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February

12 and looks like a colt with a bright future. RUN FLAT OUT (Flatter) is another

recent maiden winner of note. The colt won at first asking on January 29,

recording a 101 BRIS Speed rating for the easy 2 1/2-length decision, and will

make his stakes debut in March 12 San Felipe S. (G2) for John Sadler.

Previews

The Risen Star will feature a 10-horse field Saturday with Kentucky Derby

implications. The 1 1/16-mile race marks the 2011 debut of Breeders' Cup

Juvenile (G1) third-placer ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones) and Kentucky Jockey Club

(G2) victor SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway), and MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) and

MACHEN (Distorted Humor) add further depth to the line-up.

Rogue Romance is the slight 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but the one-run

closer could need a race and shouldn't be fully cranked for his return. With

$258,000 in graded earnings, he just needs a solid performance to build upon.

Mucho Macho Man is intriguing. He's run well in his last two starts at two

turns, breaking his maiden by four lengths and recording a second in the Remsen

S. (G2), and his 101 BRIS Speed rating in the latter can't be overlooked. The

Kathy Ritvo runner showed too much speed when opening this year in the one-turn

Holy Bull, but I expect him to revert to rating tactics Saturday and respect his

chances.

Santiva broke his maiden in the Kentucky Jockey Club and found himself up

close from the start on a slow pace that afternoon. He figures to be running

late in the speed-laden Risen Star, and I'm inclined to give him a race.

However, the bay colt does appear to be training sensationally at Palm Meadows

for Eddie Kenneally.

Unbeaten Machen is my top pick. He's won both career starts at Fair Grounds

in visually impressive fashion, including a five-length allowance victory in his

two-turn debut, and we can't count his last Speed rating (89) against him due to

the ridiculous early pace (six furlongs in 1:15 3/5). The Neil Howard colt

registered a 98 BRIS Speed rating for his debut, and his affinity for the New

Orleans oval should serve him well.

Lecomte (G3) third-placer ACTION READY (More Than Ready) and fifth-placer

JUSTIN PHILLIP (First Samurai) also merit consideration. Justin Phillip added

blinkers last time and the hood obviously didn't work; he's capable of better

sans blinkers for Asmussen.

Santa Anita will offer the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) on Sunday, and most

of the pre-race attention will be on THE FACTOR (War Front), who established a

new track record at Santa Anita when breaking his maiden in 1:06.98. He missed some

training due to a foot bruise and will return off a 56-day layoff, but the Bob Baffert runner must be regarded as extremely dangerous in any one-turn race.

INDIAN WINTER (Indian Charlie) is the one I'm looking forward to seeing in the San Vicente. He closed

with a rush to capture the 6 1/2-furlong San Pedro S. on January 17, his first

appearance since a dead-heat third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and appears to

be training forwardly for his second start back from the 4 1/2-month layoff. I'm

not sure how far he wants go down the road, but the Jerry Hollendorfer colt will

command plenty of respect with a strong showing at seven furlongs Sunday.

Monday's Southwest S. (G3) could feature a full field at Oaklawn Park. Grade

1 winner J P'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal), who was last seen finishing second in

the CashCall Futurity (G1), will launch his three-year-old campaign, and the

one-mile trip could be within his range. Other locally-based contenders include

Smarty Jones S. winner CALEB'S POSSE (Posse); recent allowance winner YANKEE

PASSION (Yankee Gentleman); and ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who experienced a

troubled trip when missing by only a head to ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) in his first

start back from a six-month hiatus. I expect big improvement from the Tim

Ritchey-trained Elite Alex.