Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

JANUARY 17, 2008

by James Scully

The stage was set for "The Bad Cat." Three rivals dueled early on the front

end as EL GATO MALO (El Corredor) patiently bided his time, rating about 10

lengths off the pace down the backstretch, and the response was immediate when

David Flores asked for run entering the far turn. El Gato Malo blew past

into the stretch, quickly opening up by daylight en route to an impressive 6

1/4-length romp in Saturday's San Rafael S. (G3) at Santa Anita.

The early exploits figured to take a toll on the front runners, but few

anticipated such a thrashing. El Gato Malo was magnificent in victory, turning a

competitive-looking event into a laugher, and he catapulted himself toward the

top of the three-year-old California ranks. The Craig Dollase runner is

three-for-three overall.

A 5 1/2-length debut winner going six furlongs at Hollywood Park on November

18, El Gato Malo registered his first stakes victory with an easy 4 1/4-length

score in the one-mile Gold Rush S. at Golden Gate Fields on December 15.

Unbeaten but untested, the dark bay gelding stepped up to face a group of five

rivals in the one-mile San Rafael that included Grade 3 hero and CashCall

Futurity (G1) third-placer MASSIVE DRAMA (Kafwain) and promising maiden winner

TALK OF A CAT (Tale of a Cat).

His connections were understandably ecstatic afterward, speaking of roses in May,

and you can't blame them. But some perspective is required. El Gato Malo has run strictly on synthetic

surfaces so far, and he's never been past a mile.

The synthetic question is difficult to answer. This will be the first time a

contingent of Kentucky Derby (G1) horses will invade Churchill Downs without dirt experience,

and we don't know what to expect. The surface change could negatively impact

some, but others will probably make a smooth transition.

Distance is always a big factor. Horses will stretch out to 10 furlongs for

the first time in the Derby, and the added ground will be too

extreme for many participants. I'm quick to discount horses based

on their breeding, but pedigree analysis only goes so far in gauging a

horse's ability to handle a classic route of ground. Mistakes are made both ways

-- horses you thought would get the distance didn't, and vice versa. I was among

the majority who dismissed the chances of Closing Argument, who hails

from a family of sprinters, getting 10 furlongs prior to the 2005 Derby, but there he was, leading in deep stretch under the Twin Spires, before finishing only a

half-length back in second. He outran Preakness (G1) and Belmont S. (G1) winner

Afleet Alex, who checked in a close third that afternoon.

El Gato Malo is out of the winning Mountain Cat mare One Bad Cat, who raced

primarily in sprints, and his granddam, the Native Royalty mare Stedes Wonder, was

also a sprinter. Broodmare sire Mountain Cat is a multiple graded winner at

both 8 1/2 and six furlongs. Sire El Corredor is best known for winning the 2000

Cigar Mile H. (G1) and excelled at middle distances throughout his career. He's

responsible for last year's Blue Grass S. (G1) winner Dominican.

Though his pedigree doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for 1 1/4 miles, the

jury is still out on El Gato Malo. He hasn't shown any distance limitations so

far, and next up is the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. (G2) on March 15. The

Kentucky-bred gelding received a career-best 98 BRIS Speed rating in the San

Rafael, which seems a little low, but we probably can't place

too much stock on Speed numbers earned over the dried out Cushion Track last week.

Massive Drama just missed second following a suicidal pace duel, crossing the

wire in the bronze spot, and don't be surprised to see Bob Baffert switch him to

dirt next out, which will probably play better to the colt's front-running

style. INDIAN SUN (Indian Charlie), who finished second in the grassy Generous S.

(G3) after breaking his maiden on the turf at Santa Anita, clunked up for

runner-up honors in the San Rafael. We'll likely see him back on the turf later

this year. Talk of a Cat, a smart 5 1/2-length maiden special weight winner at

Hollywood for Todd Pletcher, refused to settle during the early stages and spit

the bit midway on the final turn. He's better than he showed on this occasion.

Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]) threw his hat into the Kentucky Derby ring with a

surprising win in Saturday's Lecomte S. (G3) at Fair Grounds. It wasn't a major

upset -- trainer Steve Asmussen obviously thought enough of the unbeaten New

York-bred to ship him out of the Empire State -- but Z Fortune looked like a

confirmed front runner entering the race. He surprisingly changed tactics in his

stakes debut, rating in fifth under jockey Shaun Bridgmohan before launching a

bid on the far turn that propelled him to a 2 3/4-length decision.

His first two victories -- allowance and maiden special weight tallies --

came over state-bred rivals at Belmont and Aqueduct, respectively, so the gray colt was taking

a class hike in the Lecomte. And the expected pace battle never ensued, with

reasonable splits of :24 1/5, :48 1/5 and 1:12 4/5 through the opening

three-quarters of a mile. Z Fortune entered the lane with a full head of steam

and swept clear in a matter of a few strides, eliminating any suspense in the

stretch run of the one-mile contest. It was easy to be impressed by his move,

and Z Fortune earned career-best 99 Speed and 108 Late Pace ratings.

Out of 1992 Demoiselle S. (G2) winner Fortunate Faith (Fortunate Prospect),

who is a

Minnesota-bred mare, Z Fortune doesn't own a fashionable pedigree for the

Kentucky Derby. But he turned in an encouraging performance at Fair Grounds on

Saturday, and we'll see if he can back it up next time.

BLACKBERRY ROAD (Gone West) kicked it in too late to offer a serious

challenge in the Lecomte, but finished up well to be a clear second. A

half-brother to undefeated juvenile champion Vindication, Blackberry Road lost

training time last fall when trainer David Carroll's barn at Churchill Downs was

quarantined due to an outbreak of the equine herpes virus. He returned off a

two-month layoff to finish a fast-closing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S.

(G2) at Churchill in late November, and the Lecomte, which was too short for him

to be most effective, served a useful starting point for his 2008 campaign.

The dark bay colt is no win machine, capturing only one-of-seven starts so

far, but Blackberry Road is a threat to put it all together eventually. His

Speed ratings remain a little low, but he's still maturing and should relish

added ground in the future. Jockey Calvin Borel, who guided Street Sense to

victory in last year's Kentucky Derby, calls him "Little Street." Blackberry

Road recorded BRIS Late Pace ratings of 109 and 112 in his last two outings, and

the one-run closer is certainly eligible to keep improving. All in all, it was a

very good effort for him.

Other three-year-old performers of interest last week included BORDEAUX

BANDIT (Vindication), who broke his maiden in commendable fashion at Gulfstream

Park on Saturday. Trained by Nick Zito, the $350,000 yearling purchase tracked

the pace before asserting himself at the top of the stretch and drew off to a 5

1/2-length triumph, registering a 107 Speed rating in the one-mile, one-turn

heat. A half-brother to 2005 Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Noble Causeway,

Bordeaux Bandit was making his second career start and is now likely headed to

stakes company. He doesn't figure to have any trouble stretching out to two

turns.

ON THE VIRG (Pulpit) graduated in his second career start, winning a maiden

special weight at Santa Anita on Sunday by two lengths. The Pletcher-trained

colt raced on the front end throughout after breaking from post 11 in the 1

1/16-mile event and accelerated nicely after turning for home. He's out of a mare by

two-time champion sprinter Housebuster, but there's plenty of stamina on both sides

of his pedigree.

Upcoming

There are no graded stakes races for three-year-olds until February 2, when

Santa Anita will host the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) and Gulfstream

offers the 6 1/2-furlong Swale S. (G2). Oaklawn Park opens this Friday, and

Monday's Martin Luther King Day feature is the inaugural running of the one-mile

Smarty Jones S. for sophomores.

Top 10

1) MAJESTIC WARRIOR -- My faith will start withering if he doesn't return to

the worktab soon for Bill Mott

2) COURT VISION -- Grade 2 winner also hasn't been seen on the

worktab yet for Mott

3) COLONEL JOHN -- Hope Eoin Harty ships him out of California for at least

his final prep

4) INTO MISCHIEF -- Athletic colt is very promising

5) PYRO -- Came on strong last fall for Asmussen

6) TALE OF EKATI -- Grade 2 winner could develop into a top one for Barclay

Tagg

7) WAR PASS -- Undefeated colt returned to the worktab last week for Zito

8) EL GATO MALO -- Smashing winner of the San Rafael

9) MUSHKA -- Her Demoiselle win was special

10) COUNTRY STAR -- Another very talented lass; no filly has been in the Derby

field since 1999