Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

MARCH 21, 2013

by James Scully

Saturday's Rebel Stakes put a smile on the face of D. Wayne Lukas, with

Will Take Charge edging stablemate Oxbow by a head on the wire, and

the Hall of Fame trainer holds a strong Kentucky Derby hand for the first time

in more than a decade.

Will Take Charge guaranteed himself a spot with the 50-point winner's share,

jumping to the top of the standings with 60 points after earning another 10 for

his Southwest victory earlier this year. He was impressive Saturday, quickly

erasing about a three-length deficit after turning into the stretch, and has run

well twice at Oaklawn going a mile and 1 1/16 miles this winter. His final prep

could come in the April 13 Blue Grass at Keeneland, where he broke his maiden on

the Polytrack last October, but Lukas left open the possibility of training him

straight up to the main event.

Oxbow came up a little short but gained plenty of admiration in defeat. After

breaking from post 10, he raced close to a wicked pace, traveling widest of all

on the first turn, and moved early while losing a lot of ground on the far turn.

The colt tried valiantly all the way and his BRIS Speed ratings continued to

increase, registering a career-best 101 Saturday, and Oxbow is well-situated

presently with 36 points. He can add to his total in the April 13 Arkansas

Derby.

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be offered Friday-Sunday and

War Academy is a new addition following his smart allowance win at Santa

Anita last Friday. The son of Giant's Causeway displayed a tremendous turn of

foot in his two-turn debut, winning effortlessly for Bob Baffert, and will try

to earn a Derby berth in one of the final preps. War Academy beat little on

Friday, but I liked his style and the exciting colt could prove to be a major

player.

The first leg in the championship portion of the new "Road

to the Kentucky Derby" scoring system concludes this weekend, with

Saturday's Spiral and Sunday's Sunland Derby both offering 50-20-10-5 points to

the respective top four finishers.

There is plenty of intrigue surrounding the Spiral, which features the

comeback of Kentucky Jockey Club winner Uncaptured against a full field

of challengers on Turfway's Polytrack. Nine will square off at the New Mexico

track Sunday, including a pair each from Baffert (Governor Charlie and

Shakin It Up) and Todd Pletcher (Abraham and Overanalyze).

Rebel

Oxbow was the only horse close to the pace to be involved in the finish and

was hurt by a ridiculously wide trip. He probably moved a little soon as well,

but it was encouraging to see him immediately gallop out in front after the

wire. The Rebel eliminated any quality concerns surrounding the improving colt

and the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby trip should be right up his alley.

A son of Breeders' Cup Classic hero Awesome Again, Oxbow is out of a full

sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow and possesses plenty of

speed. He's the type who could set the pace in the Kentucky Derby or race close

to the action before making his move. I love the progress he's making -- the

Churchill Downs maiden winner takes his track with him, running big at Fair

Grounds and Oaklawn this year -- and believe Oxbow will be a tough customer on

Derby Day.

Lukas saddled 23-1 outsider Proud Citizen to a non-threatening second in the

2003 Derby, but it's been a long time since he's been in the spotlight heading

into the race. The 77-year-old conditioner has sent out a steady string of

seemingly overmatched longshots since his last success in 1999, with all

starters since 2000 being at least 20-1. That's a far cry from his glory days in

the late 1980s and '90s.

From 1988 to 1999, Lukas won with four of 23 starters in the Kentucky Derby,

a 17 percent win rate that Pletcher would cherish (Lukas owns a record 45 Derby

starts and Pletcher is second with 31), and he also recorded three thirds. One

had to account for his horses every year. The scenery changed over the last

decade, but the "Coach" appears to have the right horse again in Oxbow to demand

serious respect.

Will Take Charge deserves credit for a career-best effort, racing in midpack

before advancing into contention on the far turn, and is developing into a nice

three-year-old. Whether he can carry his form outside of Oaklawn, at longer

distances against steeper competition, is a legitimate concern. Out of multiple

Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady, the son of Unbridled's Song owns plenty of

class on the female side of his pedigree but it is arguably slanted toward

distances of nine furlongs or less.

Den's Legacy rallied up the rail to a menacing position entering the

stretch drive but lacked the necessary finishing kick and wound up third, a

couple of lengths back of the top two finishers. It was another three-length gap

to fourth and Den's Legacy has managed to place in his fourth consecutive stakes

races since switching from the turf last fall.

The Baffert charge doesn't rate as top prospect -- he doesn't look fast

enough to beat top-class rivals -- but Den's Legacy is as honest as they come

and looks like the type that could show up in the right spot, at the right time,

to surprise everyone. That happened with Giacomo in 2005.

Super Ninety Nine and Treasury Bill both proved to be major

disappointments in the Rebel.

Super Ninety Nine was favored at 6-5 following his 11 1/4-length,

front-running romp over a sloppy track in the Southwest, but did not make the

early lead in the Rebel and threw in the towel before the conclusion of the far

turn, weakening to fifth. Despite his pedigree, he probably favors middle

distances at this point in his career. Treasury Bill, the 4-1 co-third choice

with entry-mate Title Contender, received the perfect set-up but never made any

impact from the back of the field in his two-turn bow.

Derby Future Wager

I plan on playing both Oxbow (20-1 morning line) and War Academy (30-1) in

this weekend's third pool of the Kentucky Derby wager and will add Orb to the

mix as well if his odds are 10-1 or greater on Sunday afternoon.

Derby Top 10

1. Verrazano -- Unbeaten Tampa Bay Derby hero is a supreme talent

   and his effectiveness at longer distances is the only question; will stretch

   out to nine furlongs in Wood Memorial

2. Orb -- Fountain of Youth winner is a perfect candidate for 1 1/4

   miles; stock will continue to rise with a strong showing in the Florida

   Derby

3. Revolutionary -- Could be any kind for Pletcher but maturity

   issues are the main concern; will return off a freshening in Louisiana Derby

4. Itsmyluckyday -- A star so far this year, registering 111 and 106

   BRIS Speed ratings in two stakes wins, Plesa trainee will attempt to keep

   rolling in Florida Derby

5. Oxbow -- Displayed plenty of fight in last two, gaining a ton of

   seasoning while experiencing rough trips in Risen Star and Rebel, and could

   peak at the right time for Lukas

6. War Academy -- Brilliant Santa Anita allowance winner looks ready

   to make a serious impact for Baffert

7. Flashback -- Never quit trying despite tiring late in first

   setback; San Felipe will toughen him up for next time

8. Code West -- Hasn't "wowed" anyone with performances so far but

   believe he still has a lot more to offer; Louisiana Derby is next

9. Hear the Ghost -- Improving gelding secured Kentucky Derby berth

   in San Felipe and could pack a strong punch in the final furlongs

10. Will Take Charge -- Notched his second stakes tally this year

    when closing boldly to take Rebel; Blue Grass likely next