Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

MARCH 4, 2015

by James Scully

No points' races for the Kentucky Derby were offered last week but some

interesting developments took place.

Dortmund to run, Far From Over to wait

Dortmund (Big Brown) became a new addition to the March 7 San Felipe (G2)

field, with trainer Bob Baffert deciding not to wait for the April 4 Santa Anita

Derby (G1) as originally planned following a victory in the February 7 Robert B.

Lewis (G2).

Baffert's decision stands in stark contrast to Todd Pletcher's recent

announcement that Far From Over (Blame) will bypass the March 7 Gotham (G3), a

race previously considered likely for the late-starting colt with only two

career starts. Far From Over, who earned 10 points winning the February 7

Withers (G3), will make his lone remaining prep in the April 4 Wood Memorial

(G1).

Dortmund is a physically imposing sophomore who towers over most rivals. But

after easily dispatching maiden and entry-level allowance foes in his first two

starts last fall, the massive chestnut colt displayed signs of immaturity

recording narrow wins in the December 20 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert

Lewis.

He did not maintain a straight path in the Los Alamitos Futurity, waiting

until deep stretch to offer his best stride, and continued to run in spots

during the Robert Lewis, with jockey Martin Garcia going to a full-out drive on the far

turn as Firing Line (Line of David) rolled past what appeared to be a tiring

Dortmund. But Dortmund had more to offer, gamely re-rallying through a tight

spot along the rail to win going away in deep stretch.

The talent's clearly there but Dortmund still has something to learn from a

mental standpoint. Baffert figures two more races will provide valuable

seasoning, helping to toughen up his charge for the 20-horse congestion and

rowdy 150,000-plus crowd that awaits him at Churchill Downs on May 2.

Pletcher employs a different approach, keeping his top horses as fresh as

possible before the big event.

Case in point is how both trainers have handled talented but unraced

juveniles in recent years. The Baffert-trained Bodemeister didn't make his

career debut until January 16 in 2012, while the Pletcher-trained Khozan

(Distorted Humor) was unveiled on January 24 this season.

Bodemeister received four starts, including a pair of stakes attempts before

finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher will give Khozan only three

starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the March 28 Florida Derby (G1) serving

as his only stakes outing.

Pletcher not only avoided a stakes race with Khozan following his flashy

first-out score, he kept the colt at a one-turn allowance distance on February

22. It's extremely rare to see a top hopeful like Khozan wait until the end of

March for his two-turn debut.

Pletcher's strategy does protect the value of very expensive stallion

prospects, eliminating the chances for multiple defeats in the months leading up

to the first Saturday in May. Thoroughbreds can be fragile and Pletcher has had

several top contenders with enormous stud value -- Eskendreya, Uncle Mo and

Constitution -- sidelined by injury in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky

Derby.

But keeping lightly-raced horses safe with extra time off between starts in

the months preceding the Kentucky Derby, or in the case of Khozan providing

limited stakes opportunities, has never translated into success for Pletcher,

who possesses a 40-1-2-3 record since sending out his first Kentucky Derby

starter in 2000.

Remarkably, four of the last five horses that hit the board for Pletcher,

including 2010 winner Super Saver and 2014 third-placer Danza, raced only three

weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Those results run counter to Pletcher's

preference for giving horses more time between starts.

Derby pursuit begins for Brandi

D. Wayne Lukas will tell you there is nothing more important than winning the

Kentucky Derby. He leads all modern-day trainers with four wins, including the

front-running filly Winning Colors in 1988, and never lacks in confidence.

That's why it should be no surprise to see champion two-year-old filly Take

Charge Brandi (Giant's Causeway) committed to the March 14 Rebel Stakes (G2) at

Oaklawn Park. Lukas knows he can beat males in the Kentucky Derby with a filly

and if Take Charge Brandi can't earn enough points to qualify, she will run in

the Kentucky Oaks the day before.

The 79-year-old Hall of Famer finished only a neck back of Dortmund with Mr.

Z (Malibu Moon) in the Los Alamitos Futurity and probably isn't worried about

the male sophomore division this year.

It's been easy so far to call the Kentucky Oaks the goal since it serves as

the ultimate back-up plan. But if Take Charge Brandi qualifies against males in

either the Rebel or a following points' race, the Kentucky Derby becomes a

no-brainer for her connections.

Royal Son wins, The Great War departs

Royal Son (Tiznow) recorded his first stakes win in the February 28 John

Battaglia Memorial, leading all the way over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. The

1 1/16-mile race didn't offer any points, but the Pletcher runner will get

the opportunity next time, with the March 21 Spiral (G3) at Turfway representing

a logical option.

By two-time Breeders' Cup Classic hero Tiznow, Royal Son receives more

stamina from his dam side being out of a mare by A.P. Indy. The WinStar Farm

homebred counts champion two-year-old filly Countess Diana as his second

maternal dam.

The bay colt registered a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating for a widening 5

1/4-length decision.

The Great War's (War Front) Kentucky Derby hopes came to an end in the

Battaglia. Favored at 1-5, the Wesley Ward-trained colt bled despite being on

Lasix, fading to last in the 10-horse field. Ward said afterward The Great War

will be given some time off to recuperate.

Louisiana Derby bound

A Day in Paradise (Yes It's True) made his stakes bow a winning one in the

February 28 Texas Heritage at Sam Houston and trainer Larry Jones said the March

28 Louisiana Derby will be next for the New York-bred gelding.

A maiden winner at Keeneland last fall, A Day in Paradise was making his

first start since finishing second to War Story (Northern Afleet) in a Fair

Grounds' allowance on December 28. War Story went on to finish second in the

Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) in his next two outings, but A Day in Paradise

will need to improve significantly from a BRIS Speed figure perspective to be

competitive at that level, registering only an 85 in the Texas Heritage.

Upcoming

A blockbuster weekend is up ahead.

The California contingent is extremely deep at this stage and Dortmund will

be squaring off against a quartet of well-regarded rivals in Saturday's San

Felipe that consists of unbeaten Grade 3 winner Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense),

who will be making his 2015 return; Lord Nelson (Pulpit), who exits a nice win

over Texas Red (Afleet Alex) in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) for Baffert

and will be looking to establish his prowess at a two-turn distance; Bolo

(Temple City), a spectacular winner of the grassy Eddie Logan (G3) who many

believe can carry his outstanding form to the main track; and Prospect Park (Tapit),

a convincing allowance winner who will make his anticipated stakes debut.

Other runners based in California include champion American Pharoah (Pioneerof

the Nile), who is headed to the Rebel; Texas Red, who is being pointed toward

the Santa Anita Derby; and Firing Line, who appears to have the March 22 Sunland

Derby (G3) on his agenda.

Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G2) marks the return of Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem

(Giant's Causeway), who was last seen taking runner-up honors in the Breeders'

Cup Juvenile (G1). He'll be favored against a nice group of challengers that

includes Ocean Knight (Curlin) and Divining Rod (Tapit), the top two finishers

from the January 31 Sam F. Davis (G3); and Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon), an

impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream Park who is making his first stakes

attempt for Mark Casse.

The Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct took a significant hit with the defections of Far

From Over and Ocean Knight in recent days, leaving El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) as the

horse to beat. The John Terranova-trained colt already has 25 points to his

credit, posting wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Jerome (G3) as well as

placings in the Withers and Champagne (G1), and the speedy gray figures to add

to his total against an unaccomplished cast on Saturday.