Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

MARCH 4, 2010

by James Scully

For the second time this year, Santa Anita was forced to postpone a graded

prep race due to unsuitable conditions on the Pro-Ride. The Sham S. (G3) will be

brought back one week later, on Saturday's Santa Anita H. (G1) undercard,

weather permitting.

The second Kentucky Derby Future Wager begins its three-day run on Friday.

Gulfstream allowances

In a slow week for Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls, RADIOHEAD (GB)

(Johannesburg) made some noise

with an impressive allowance score on Saturday. The Richard Dutrow-trained colt

showed speed from the start in his dirt debut, pressing

pacesetter General Maximus (Freud) in second down the backstretch of the

one-mile test, and struck the front while turning for home. He accelerated clear

in midstretch with an excellent turn of foot

that netted him a 116 BRIS Late Pace rating, registering a 101 BRIS

Speed rating for the 3 1/4-length decision.

Dutrow holds a strong hand for any three-year-old stakes race at a mile or

less. Radiohead looks like a better candidate for two turns than stablemate D' Funnybone

(D'wildcat), but remains questionable at the Derby 1 1/4-mile distance. There's

plenty of speed on his female side, and his connections ran him early and often

in Europe last season, with six starts at six furlongs or less. He may be able

to stretch out effectively to 1 1/8 miles, but 10 furlongs is a different

ballgame.

Last seen finishing third in the one-mile Iroquois S. (G3) at Churchill

Downs, SOARING EMPIRE (Empire Maker) returned to the races with a smart

performance last Thursday. The long-striding colt rallied through the stretch of

the seven-furlong event to record a narrow victory, giving every indication that

he will relish longer distances as he drew off late, and the tightener sets him

up for his two-turn debut next time. Out of an A.P. Indy mare, Soaring Empire is

well-bred for classic distances and has earned solid BRIS Speed numbers in his

sprint starts so far. He's an interesting prospect from the barn of Cam

Gambolati, who saddled 1985 Derby winner Spend a Buck.

FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) and FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even), the one-two finishers

in a February 21 allowance at 1 1/8 miles, also merit watching in the future. A

maiden scorer at Churchill Downs in his juvenile finale, Fly Down closed

determinedly to win by a head in his first start against winners, posting a

career-best 96 BRIS Speed rating, and the lightly-raced colt looks like one who

will keep improving for Nick Zito. Recent Gulfstream maiden victor First Dude

ran too well to lose in an ultra-game showing. The Dale Romans colt took it to

3-5 favorite Colizeo (Distorted Humor) from the start, pushing fast early splits

before disposing of the well-regarded pacesetter, and drove hard all the way to

the wire. Fly Down and First Dude could both make an impact in upcoming stakes.

Sportsman's Paradise

Sanford S. (G2) winner BACKTALK (Smarty Jones) made his first appearance since

October a winning one in Friday night's Sportsman's Paradise S. at Delta Downs,

getting up in deep stretch to record a half-length decision over the sloppy

track, and he's headed to the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 27. It

was encouraging to see him succeed at a two-turn distance, but his 89 BRIS Speed

rating was pretty dismal. He'll be tested for class and stamina next time.

Battaglia & Borderland

Saturday's John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway Park won't have any impact

upon this year's Kentucky Derby. CODOY (Bernstein), a graded stakes-placed turf

performer at two, was the best horse in the Battaglia but wound up being

disqualified from the top spot due to interference in deep stretch. He received

an 88 BRIS Speed rating and may have a decent future on synthetic tracks as well

as turf.

Canadian champion juvenile Mine That Bird (Birdstone) used the Borderland

Derby at Sunland Park as a steppingstone to his Derby upset, but there were no

runners of his caliber in Saturday's field. RAISE THE BRIDLE (Spanish Steps),

who was exiting a second in a February maiden special weight, finished first by

a neck over STORMING SAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) but remained eligible for maiden

contests after being disqualified to second. Storming Saint, who was stepping up

to a route off a third in the 6 1/2-furlong Riley Allison Futurity, earned an 85

BRIS Speed rating for his first stakes win.

KDFW

What does D. Wayne Lukas look for in a sire? Speed, speed and speed. When

analyzing the Derby Future Wager, one can't go wrong searching for value, value

and value.

I played three futures in pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager at odds

of 20-1 or higher: Maximus Ruler (Roman Ruler) (76-1), Drosselmeyer (Distorted

Humor) (20-1) and Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway) (22-1). Maximus Ruler is no

longer viable after being knocked off the Derby Trail with a physical setback.

Drosselmeyer can still make the field with a strong showing in his final Derby

prep, but he lost his luster when finishing a dull fourth in the Risen Star S. (G2)

and isn't an individual interest in Pool 2. Eskendereya is sitting pretty right

now.

I'll recommend two horses in Pool 2: DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) and TEMPTED TO

TAPIT (Tapit).

The Lukas-trained Dublin will draw some support, but his 15-1 morning line

looks realistic with three straight setbacks since his Hopeful S. (G1) victory

in early September. I liked his runner-up performance in the Southwest S. (G3)

last time and expect him to run big in the March 13 Rebel S. (G2).

Tempted to Tapit (50-1 morning line) will be one of the longest shots on the

board, but I'll take a flier on the well-built gray colt. A maiden winner two

starts back on the inner track at Aqueduct, he easily proved second-best in the

Risen Star and owns a big upside for Steve Klesaris. He owns good BRIS Speed

ratings, can be placed anywhere with his tactical speed, and is bred to handle

10 furlongs.

Upcoming

Saturday's Gotham S. (G3) marks the U.S. debut for AWESOME ACT (Awesome

Again), who ships in from Newmarket, England, for Jeremy Noseda. A

fast-finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), the

highly-regarded colt is bred for dirt and lands in a favorable spot without any

graded winners. Whirlaway S. and Finger Lakes Juvenile S. hero PEPPI KNOWS

(Stephen Got Even) is a top draw.

Saturday's Sham S. (G3) won't feature any graded winners either. SETSUKO

(Pleasantly Perfect) and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (Lido Palace [Chi]) both merit serious

respect in their first stakes attempt, and CashCall Futurity (G1) fourth-placer THE PROGRAM

(Harlan's Holiday), who exits an allowance triumph on Pro-Ride, is a threat for

Bob Baffert.