Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

JANUARY 20, 2010

by James Scully

The first round of 2010 preps for Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls are underway,

with Santa Anita, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Golden Gate Fields all

offering races over the holiday weekend, and Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds

will get into act this Saturday with the Holy Bull S. (G3) and Lecomte S. (G3),

respectively.

The big guns -- champion

LOOKIN AT LUCKY

(Smart Strike), Remsen S. (G2) hero

BUDDY'S SAINT

(Saint Liam) and Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) romper

SUPER SAVER

(Maria's Mon) -- won't get started for at least another month, but we'll have

plenty to discuss in their absence.

San Rafael

Bob Baffert has the early Derby favorite in Lookin at Lucky, but the Hall of

Fame conditioner is loaded with prospects and is counting on being at least

double-barreled when he arrives at Churchill Downs in the spring. Unbeaten

CONVEYANCE

(Indian Charlie) took a step in that direction with a 1 3/4-length

score in Saturday's San Rafael S. (G3).

After commanding victories over maiden special weight and allowance rivals in

a pair of six-furlong races, Conveyance stretched out to two turns against a

questionable group of four rivals in the one-mile San Rafael. The front runner

got away with slow early splits (:24 2/5 and :48 2/5) and was passed momentarily

by former claimer Cardiff Giant (Yankee Gentlemen) approaching the top of the

stretch, but he shrugged off the surprising challenge and was in complete

control in the lane despite racing greenly. The gray had his head cocked

sideways toward the stands and switched leads back and forth before crossing the

wire.

Both Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez said the gray colt got a little tired

late, and Conveyance netted only an 88 BRIS Late Pace rating. After registering

a whopping 101 BRIS Speed figure for his previous allowance score, his Speed

rating plunged to a 90 in the San Rafael. It wasn't the most impressive showing,

but I still like him going forward.

Conveyance is classy individual with dangerous speed. Little but long-striding, the

lightly-raced sophomore has the pedigree to handle longer distances and will

likely improve upon his first stakes attempt. Baffert said he wants to get him on

dirt in the near future, and that will be a plus. Conveyance's sire (Indian

Charlie) and damsire (Holy Bull) were both beaten Derby favorites, so he's got

the revenge factor going for him this year.

Smarty Jones

After concluding his juvenile season with a good-looking allowance victory at

Churchill Downs,

DRYFLY

(Jump Start) confirmed his status as a Derby prospect with a victory in Monday's

Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park. The Lynn Whiting-trained gelding sprinted to

the front when the gates opened and was never threatened under Calvin Borel, but

he got a little tired late in the one-mile event. He still managed to win

comfortably by 2 1/4 lengths over the late-running Oklahoma-bred Pleasant Storm

(Pleasant Tap).

After receiving a 102 BRIS Speed rating for his seven-furlong

allowance triumph at Churchill, Dryfly earned a respectable 95 figure on Monday.

The Smarty Jones is the first in a four-race series that culminates in the April

10 Arkansas Derby (G1), and the bay Kentucky-bred looms as a potential major

player in those events.

The competition will get much tougher and he'll need to keep improving as the

distances increase, but it was an encouraging start to his three-year-old

campaign.

Pasco

Tampa Bay Downs, which produced a couple of talented top-class runners last

year in Musket Man (Yonaguska) and General Quarters (Sky Mesa), launched their

three-year-old stakes program on Saturday with the seven-furlong Pasco S., and

the up-and-coming

UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (Limehouse) delivered a rousing performance, drawing off

to a six-length decision in his stakes bow. He defeated a small, suspect group

of rivals over the Oldsmar, Florida, oval, but his sheer superiority makes him

one to follow in the coming months.

After rating a few lengths off the early pace, the chestnut rolled past the

leaders in upper stretch and was kept to task the rest of the way by jockey

Daniel Centeno. It was only his second career start, following a nine-length

demolition over maiden special weight rivals on December 26 at Tampa, and the

Alan Seewald trainee has earned commendable BRIS Speed ratings (94 and 98) in

his two sprint starts.

We'll find out more about this promising colt when he stretches out to two

turns in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. (G3) on February 13.

California Derby

Saturday's California Derby set up as a showcase for the Todd

Pletcher-trained

CONNEMARA

(Giant's Causeway), who invaded Golden Gate Fields off an allowance victory

at Oak Tree, but the late-running colt couldn't run down the pacesetting

RANGER HEARTLEY (Lost Soldier), who sprang the minor upset in his stakes

debut.

Trained by John Sadler, Ranger Heartley probably won't be a serious factor

on the Derby trail. He registered only an 86 BRIS Speed rating for his narrow victory,

and I can't envision him wanting any more ground than Saturday's 8 1/2-furlong

distance. The dark bay gelding got away with an extremely slow pace (:49 4/5 for

the half-mile) and was all out to withstand the late runners.

Connemara, a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner and 2004 Kentucky Derby

runner-up Lion Heart, didn't turn heads with a pair of 83 BRIS Speed ratings in

his first two starts and left plenty to be desired in the California Derby. But

it's important to remember that he's made all three starts on synthetic tracks.

If his connections want to find out what they have in terms of the Derby, they

have to get him on dirt in the near future. Connemara still has much to prove, and may be too slow to ever develop into a

legitimate Derby contender, but I liked the precociousness he displayed winning

right away in his first two outings. The deep closer deserves the chance to get

out of California.

Upcoming

A good-sized field is shaping up for Saturday's one-mile Holy Bull, and

JACKSON

BEND (Hear No Evil) will be the horse to beat. A dominant performer at

Calder last year, the Florida-bred was flattered when D' Funnybone (D'wildcat),

who finished second to his rival in the Frank Gomez Memorial S., went on to

easily capture the Futurity S. (G2) and Saratoga Special S. (G2) in New York.

Transferred to Nick Zito following his juvenile finale, Jackson Bend is

working bullets for his return, and his BRIS Speed ratings will lay over his

Holy Bull rivals. He figures to be an overwhelming favorite.

The one-mile Lecomte looks like a more evenly-matched affair. Kentucky Jockey

Club third-placer

WORLDLY

(A.P. Indy), who exits a good second to the promising Stay Put (Put It Back) in

a January 3 allowance at Fair Grounds, and Remsen third-placer

CITRUS

KID (Lemon Drop Kid) are the top draws.