Kentucky Oaks Report

KENTUCKY OAKS REPORT

APRIL 23, 2011

by Jennifer Caldwell

Since 2000, only four winners of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (G1) were not named

champion three-year-old filly. That puts the odds squarely on the side of this

year's winner to be honored with an Eclipse at the end of the year, but

first the race needs to be run. Just two weeks remain until we find out who will

be crowned Queen of the Lilies.

The final prep for the Kentucky Oaks was run last Sunday, if one can even

call it a prep. No one in the about seven-furlong Grade 2 Beaumont is expected

to line up in the nine-furlong Oaks, but I'll give a brief recap of the race

anyway.

Following the Beaumont I'll give a brief analysis of the first five in my Top

10 list. Next week, the bottom five and any other contender will be profiled.

Kentucky

Turbulent Descent has proven to be no slouch at routes, taking the

Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks and Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet while going 1 1/16 miles.

However, trainer Mike Puype always contended his charge was better around

one-turn distances and the bay lass put the exclamation point on that with an

easy five-length score in the Beaumont at Keeneland.

Turbulent Descent broke well from the gate and settled about four wide

outside horses down the backstretch as Gran Lioness took command.

That one set the pace through the opening half-mile while tracked by Honey Chile

just to her outside. Jockey David Flores had Turbulent Descent

loping along while still wide, and the bay dynamo took off after the leader

under her own power nearing the turn.

Ranging up to the outside of Honey Chile in the lane, Turbulent Descent

kicked it into gear in midstretch. She drew off under mild encouragement from

Flores, which was mostly to keep her mind on the business as hand, and even

jumped a break in the rail shadow, but was five lengths clear on the wire.

Even before the Beaumont, Puype had said the Kentucky Oaks was not in the

plans. Instead, a New York campaign has been mapped out for Turbulent Descent.

She's expected to show up next for the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes Day, June

11, followed by the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga on August 6.

Honey Chile ran well in defeat, brushing with Gran Lioness in the stretch but

holding second by a half-length over Grade 3 Cicada runner-up Coax Liberty.

Analysis

JOYFUL VICTORY (Tapit) -- The gray filly will enter the Oaks having dominated

both of her sophomore races, the Grade 2 Fantasy and Grade 3 Honeybee, by a

combined 15 3/5 lengths. She's earned one of the best BRIS Speed number thus far

this year, garnering a 111 figure for her Honeybee score, and has shown major

progression from her juvenile season when posting a second in the Grade 1 Frizette and fifth in the

Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Having trainer Larry

Jones on her side can only help Joyful Victory's chances, and her pedigree

indicates going nine furlongs for the first time in the Oaks shouldn't be a

problem.

R HEAT LIGHTNING (Trippi) -- Trainer Todd Pletcher has captured two Oaks thus

far in his distinguished career with Rags to Riches and Ashado, and will look to

add yet another to his resume with this bay pupil. The filly has romped in her

past two races, scoring by 8 1/4 lengths in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and 7

1/4 lengths in the Grade 2 Davona Dale, following an uninspiring fourth-place run

in her sophomore bow, the Grade 2 Forward Gal. Already a Grade 1 winner after

taking the Spinaway at Saratoga, she led in the Juvenile Fillies before

being caught by the winner and forced to settle for second. R Heat Lightning has

earned consecutive triple-digit Speed figures for her wins this year, and

already boasts a victory at nine furlongs in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. While one

may argue that she loves Gulfstream's track and won't be able to reproduce those

efforts under the Twin Spires, this daughter of sprinting parents has more than

proven her ability to handle two-turn distances.

ZAZU (Tapit) -- Yet another gray daughter of Tapit, Zazu has finished worse

than second only once in her career, with that coming as a fifth in last year's

Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. She began her racing career on the synthetics in

California, but her capability on dirt was confirmed with a 1 1/4-length victory

in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Though she ran second in the 8

1/2-furlong Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks last out, the miss was rallying late and

easily drew off from the winner on the gallop out while in the center of the

track. Her Speed ratings don't compare with the top two, but hold their own

against other contenders in the field. The John Sadler charge could come

charging in the stretch to offer yet another exciting stretch duel following

last year's Blind Luck-Evening Jewel match-up.

PLUM PRETTY (Medaglia d'Oro) -- The Bob Baffert filly's sire produced 2009

Horse of the Year and Kentucky Oaks queen Rachel Alexandra in his very first

crop, and a good number of his best runners have proven to be female. Plum

Pretty didn't show much in her first three starts, but really turned a corner

last out in the Sunland Park Oaks, romping by 25 lengths. Some may contend she

didn't face much in the 1 1/16 race, but her 102 Speed rating puts her on equal

footing with my top two. The biggest concern with her is that she didn't already

peak in the Sunland Park Oaks and a bounce awaits her on the first Friday in

May.

SUMMER SOIREE (War Front) -- The bay miss would have given horseman Jones a

second shot in the Kentucky Oaks following her dominating 10 3/4-length triumph

in the Grade 3 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. However, Team Valor was so

impressed with her win that they purchased the filly and transferred her to

trainer Graham Motion. She's already joined her new barn at Keeneland, where

she's been preparing for her May engagement on the synthetic Polytrack. Her

final prep came on Turfway's Polytrack and now she's training up to the Oaks on

the all-weather, but the synthetic conditions can be discounted in Summer

Soiree's case. The lass romped by 9 3/4 lengths on Oaklawn Park's dirt prior to

the Bourbonette Oaks and broke her maiden last year at Delaware Park by 6 1/4

lengths. When she wins, she does so in a big way, but like Plum Pretty may have

already run her best race this spring. Also, her Oaklawn victory was the first

time Summer Soiree has been able to break a 90 in Speed ratings.

Top 10

1.   Joyful Victory

2.   R Heat Lightning

3.   Zazu

4.   Plum Pretty

5.   Summer Soiree

6.   Kathmanblu

7.   Daisy Devine

8.   Lilacs and Lace

9.   Arienza

10. Holy Heavens