Oaklawn Notebook

OAKLAWN NOTEBOOK

FEBRUARY 20, 2009

by Steve Collison

Southwest S. (G3): Although this was just the first step on the long

road to the Kentucky Derby (G1), the Larry Jones-trained OLD FASHIONED

(Unbridled's Song) made it an impressive one by winning the Southwest (G3) here on

Monday. Old Fashion came into this event as the individual favorite among those

listed Pool 1 of the Derby's Future Book wagering and did nothing to tarnish

that image. The three-year-old colt easily defeated Bret Calhoun's SILVER CITY

(Unbridled's Song) to capture initial important step on the way toward

Louisville.

"This horse is truly blessed," admitted Jones following the race. "He stays

fit. We weren't looking to go out in :45, but he showed he was a lot fitter than

we thought. He is a gift and we will play it day by day. With a

horse like this you don't want to take any chances."

Track Surface

Throughout the holiday race week, the Oaklawn surface maintained its

consistency with no running style holding a distinct advantage over the others.

For example, on Monday, President's Day, four runners were able to win on the

lead, four came from three lengths off the pace to win, with the rest being

taken by those who could be considered closers. That would be considered five or

more lengths off the front runners. If there was any advantage at all to the

racing surface here it would be towards the inside and the rail did attract some

of the more seasoned riders. However, any edge to that effect would have to be

considered slight.

Jockey Profile

Last year, in his second full season of riding at Oaklawn, jockey EDDIE RAZO

captured the title to the surprise of many, except himself of course. The Mexico-born reins man quickly states that you

"never go looking for titles" but accept

the good fortune that comes along. That's good advice considering that this year

he's having a much more difficult time finding the winner's circle. Much of this

slide can be attributed to is lack of success with three-year-olds of which he's

only won once from 23 mounts. Another sore spot at the moment is in routes,

which shows just two wins from 29 starters. However, to help compensate for that

lack of success Razo has been much more aggressive when riding in sprints. This

is an area where he's riding above average and if there's a bias to be found on

a given day, Razo is as likely to find it as anyone.

Trainer Notes

Obviously the big news around this part of town is the word from LARRY JONES

that he has "lost the drive" and is planning to step aside at the end of the

year to give more attention to his grandchildren and other interests. Right now

those interests are his two Derby prospects, OLD FASHIONED and FRIESAN FIRE

(A.P. Indy), but

after that who knows, according to Jones.

Trainer Profile

Currently, trainer D. WAYNE LUKAS stands third in the standings here at

Oaklawn with eight winners to his credit. Lukas is mostly associated with winning

the big races and seldom does anyone stop to consider what methods of operation

he uses during the day to day operations. As I've pointed out in the past, I've

always found it useful to follow runners this stable is dropping in class. Not

so much as a play for that day, but because they are often well bred runners

who'll do well when claimed by others stables. However, Lukas also wins a strong

25-percent of the time with these drop downs while managing a overall positive

rate of return. That doesn't seem like earth shattering news. And it isn't. But

what may surprise a few people is that he does even better with his runners on

the rise, hitting about the same percentage but having a much healthier rate of

return due of course to the more generous odds. Another avenue to watch for with

Lukas is his use of blinkers. Not so much when he first puts them on a horse,

but when he takes them off again. This is also a winning pattern that he puts to

good use with older runners coming back from layoffs.

RECENT CLAIMS TO WATCH

Friday (2/13)

1ST -- LAST MARTINI (Lemon Drop Kid), well-bred colt, turned in a tremendous

effort today despite ending up in the place spot. Was claimed by trainer John

Locke who does exceptionally well with his first off the claim runners.

Monday (2/19)

7TH -- UNREAL ROCKET (Unreal Zeal) had been going well

against allowance runners before dropping down to a claimer today. The

six-year-old mare was taken by

trainer Steve Asmussen, who obviously has a spot picked out for her against

loftier company.

HORSES TO WATCH

Saturday (2/14)

9TH -- DAY OF VICTORY (Victory Gallop) turned in a huge effort for

trainer Bob Holthus in the Pippin S. to gain the place spot. Jockey Calvin

Borel moved to the inside but unfortunately found no room and the time forced to

wait probably cost him the race. However, you will be seeing this one in the

winner's circle real soon.

Monday (2/16)

1ST -- CITIZEN JOHN (Proud Citizen) has been running well

without reaching the winner's circle for slumping trainer David Vance. Once

again today, the four-year-old colt ran what should have been a winning race only to be denied.

4TH -- ROCKBREAKER (Sunday's Break [Jpn]) moved into the barn of trainer

Allen Milligan following several months vacation. Milligan sent him one mile

where he showed speed before fading under own steam. Watch for the shrewd

Milligan to send him back on the cut back to shorter sprint.

BEWARE OF THESE

Sunday (2/15)

6TH -- RED DUBAI (Essence of Dubai) made the type of move that on

paper looks very good but in truth it was more of a mirage then anything else.

Just happened to move when everyone else is backing up, and the young filly then couldn't

maintain the advantage even when it was being handed to her.

YOUNG BLOODS

Friday (2/13)

2ND -- CLASSICAL CLOSING (Brahms) broke from the rail, which is

tough on first time starters, and the only thing that kept this horse out of the

winner's circle was the presence of a tough odds on choice. Fortunately, that

one will be gone by the time our guy runs back.