Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

DECEMBER 2, 2006

Profitable Polytrack Sire Lines

by Tim Holland

With three racetracks -- Turfway Park, Woodbine and Keeneland -- having held

meets over the Polytrack surface, enough data has been accumulated for pedigree

followers to pinpoint significant trends. An exhaustive study conducted on all

races that have been run at the three tracks -- up to and including November

19th of this year -- was recently concluded, producing fairly interesting

results from which some conclusions can be drawn. This study was not intended to

simply prove which sires are "good or bad" Polytrack sires but rather to

identify sires, or sire lines, who may be overlooked by the public and therefore

offer value at the windows.

Every race was considered, with horses who ran better

than expected compared to their post-time odds credited with a plus and

those who ran worse with a minus. For example, horses who won at odds of more

than 5-1, or finished second at more than 7-1, were considered "overachievers."

Those who were well supported in the market as favorites or second choices and ran

poorly were considered "underachievers." Overall there were 3,986 runners that

either exceeded or did not meet expectations. The ratio between over- and underachievers was not quite even; in fact 57 percent of the 3,986 ran better than

expected. Therefore, one can count 57 percent as "normal."

Skip Away led all stallions who have had at least 15 performances by

horses who were either better or worse than expected. Indeed, and

as noted in a previous Pedigree Handicapping, the offspring of this sire are certainly enjoying

the Polytrack surface. Players that have supported them may have been

rewarded with payoffs such as $80.20 from Subtle Approach at Keeneland or the

$31 returned by Skiptothegoodpart at Turfway Park this fall. In all, Skip Away

has been represented by 20 runners who exceeded the public's expectations,

while just two disappointed, to give the sire a rate of 91 percent -- 35 percent

higher than the norm.

The two tables below give the top and bottom five rankings from 65 stallions

who were represented by horses with at least 15

performances:

Best five overachieving sires

1.		Skip Away (Skip Trial)		91%
2.		Sefapiano (Fappiano)		77%
3.		Count the Time (Regal Search)		73%
4.		Boundary (Danzig)		72%
5.		Langfuhr (Danzig)		71%
5.		Service Stripe (Deputy Minister)		71%

Worst five underachieving sires

61.		Deputy Minister (Vice Regent)		29%
62.		Cherokee Run (Runaway Groom)		29%
63.		Unbridled's Song (Unbridled)		28%
64.		Rubiano (Fappiano)		26%
65.		Pulpit (A.P. Indy)		20%

While Skip Away has the best percentage of horses with 15 or more

representatives, if one lowers the limit to 10, that honor goes to Eastern Echo,

who was unbeaten in his only three career starts, all as a two-year-old,

including the 1990 Futurity S. (G1). From a hugely successful family, which

includes Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sea Hero, Eastern Echo is by 1967 Horse of

the Year Damascus, who won 21 races -- including the Belmont S., Travers S. and Preakness

S. -- and proved to be hugely successful as a stallion by siring more

than 70

stakes winners while passing along his durability.

One must always be careful when drawing conclusions from statistics,

especially when dealing with smallish samples, and this may apply to Eastern

Echo. Indeed, while he was represented by 11 runners who outran their odds and one

who did not (placing him at more than 91 percent), this was achieved

through just four individual horses. However, it should be noted that Skip Away,

like Eastern Echo, is descended from Damascus, which leads one to look at others

with runners on the Polytrack that descend from this line. Some of those

stallions include: Afternoon Deelites (Private Terms), Fly So Free (Time for a Change),

Frisk Me Now (Mister Frisky), Gilded Time (Timeless Moment), Old Topper (Gilded

Time), Personal Flag (Private Account), Private Terms (Private Account), Rod and

Staff (Marsayas), Skip Trial (Bailjumper), Top Account (Private Account),

Unaccounted For (Private Account) and Why Change (Time for a Change).

These

sires, combined with Eastern Echo and Skip Away, are represented by runners that

have made 97 over- or underachieving starts on the artificial surface, and 70 of

these have been overachievers at around 72 percent, an impressive total of 15

percent better than normal, which indicates that this sire line is one to follow

on the Polytrack.

The positive influence of Damascus on his Polytrack runners is not confined

to

his male line. Indeed, as a broodmare sire he is responsible for the likes of

Boundary (Danzig), Coronado's Quest (Forty Niner), Dixieland Heat (Dixieland

Band), Ghazi (Polish Navy), Red Ransom (Roberto) and Out of Place (Cox's Ridge),

whose runners have shown an overall affinity for the artificial surface.

Additionally, Damascus is the grandsire of the dams of Count the Time (Regal

Search), Gold Case (Forty Niner), Sir Cat (Storm Cat) and Subordination (Mt.

Livermore), who between them sport a 34-14 record of over- versus underachievers

as sires, or a well above par of 68 percent.

While Gold Case (Forty Niner), with a record of seven overachievers versus four under, has made a decent impression with his Polytrack runners,

Coronado's Quest, by the same sire, has not. Indeed, the pair combined is represented by 24 runners

who are split into 12 over- and 12 underachievers -- a

below average 50 percent.

This leads one to examine the record of Forty Niner.

With many sons at stud, one finds that he has been represented by 141 over/under

achievers of whom 72 were overachievers, at a slightly subpar rate of 51

percent. A look at these sires reveals six who were represented by 10 or more

performers. The above mentioned Coronado's Quest has disappointed along with Ide, Roar and Distorted Humor. The latter is slightly puzzling since he is out

of a mare by Danzig -- who seems to be a positive influence on this surface --

although with a sample of just 11 it may be too early to pass judgment. One son

of Forty Niner whose offspring do appear to relish the new surface is Banker's

Gold, whose runners failed to live up to the high expectations for them on the

dirt. Among Banker's Gold's Polytrack winners is the filly Hello Moneypenny, who

broke her maiden in her debut at Woodbine in September to return $24.80. One

factor that may set Banker's Gold apart from the other sons of Forty Niner on

their Polytrack performances is that he is out of a mare by the exceptional

Nijinsky II.

Being an English Triple Crown winner, and the sire of a multitude of top-class grass horses, Nijinsky is often thought of as only a turf influence.

However, it must be remembered that Nijinsky is also the sire of Grade 1 dirt winners such as Hostage, Upper Nile, Czaravich, Dancing Spree and Banker's

Lady, the latter of whom is the dam of Banker's Gold. Nijinsky's most famous stateside

runner is Ferdinand, who won the 1986 Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup Classic

(G1) a year later when he was named Horse of the Year. Additionally, being by the

adaptable Northern Dancer, who himself won the Kentucky Derby, there should be

little reason to doubt that Nijinsky's offspring can excel on any surface.

Nijinsky has had seven sons -- Ferdinand, Liginsky, Royal Academy, Siberian

Pine, Sky Classic, Stack and Sword Dance (Ire) -- that have sired over- or underachievers on the Polytrack. Their offspring combined have compiled a record of

32 overachievers to 10 underachievers, producing a healthy figure of 76

percent, which is only bettered by that of Skip Trial, who is represented solely

by Skip Away.

The two tables below give the top and bottom five rankings from 63 stallions

who were represented by horses with at least 15

performances:

Best five overachieving sire of sires

1.		Skip Trial (Bailjumper)		91%
2.		Nijinsky II (Northern Dancer)		76%
3.		Alydar (Raise a Native)		75%
4.		Theatrical (Ire) (Nureyev)		74%
5.		Regal Search (Mr. Prospector)		73%

Worst five underachieving sire of sires

59.		Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector)		43%
60.		Silver Deputy (Deputy Minister)		43%
61.		Regal Classic (Vice Regent)		41%
62.		Black Tie Affair (Ire) (Miswaki)		39%
63.		Storm Bird (Northern Dancer)		33%

After Skip Trial and Nijinsky, the top five in the sires of sires list

are rounded out by Alydar, Theatrical and Regal

Search. With a comparatively small sample size on display, Alydar's offspring have produced runners that show a liking for the Polytrack,

mostly through the progeny of Dare and Go, who was Grade 1-placed on the turf

before defeating Cigar in the Pacific Classic (G1) on the main track. Alydar's

influence is also seen over the artificial surface through Easy Goer as the sire

of Composer, who is out of a Danzig mare and showed his best form on the lawn.

Turf runner and sire Theatrical has a good record of 14-5 mostly through

Royal Anthem, a slightly disappointing sire who has recently been sold to stand

in Ireland as a steeplechase stallion. Finally in fifth is Regal Search, who is a

somewhat obscure sire and owes this position to Count the Time, who is among the

best sires at producing Polytrack over achievers and is, as mentioned above, out

of a mare that is a granddaughter of Damascus.

A look at the list of best sires for producing overachievers on the Polytrack

reveals that two sons of Danzig are in the top six. On the track, Danzig was

unbeaten in his three races, but as a sire he has produced nearly 200 stakes

winners, including such dirt champions as Dance Smartly and Chief's Crown

as well as Danehill, Elnadim and Polish Precedent on the turf. With such superior

runners on both surfaces it is little wonder that Danzig would also be a

positive influence on the artificial one. Indeed, Boundary, Langfuhr, Polish

Navy, Belong To Me, Ascot Knight, Presidential Order and Pine Bluff are the only

sons of Danzig to have 10 or more representatives that have either over or

under-performed on the Polytrack. Impressively, all seven of these earned a

figure of the norm 57 percent or higher. In fact, as a grandsire, Danzig is

responsible for 207 over/under achievers of which more than 65 percent were

over.

All sires of sires with 100 plus over/under achievers

Sire		# over/under achievers		Percent over
Danzig		207		65
Seattle Slew		100		57
Mr. Prospector		330		56
Storm Cat		281		55
Deputy Minister		128		55
Gone West		109		51
Forty Niner		141		51

As one can see Seattle Slew, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and Deputy Minister

all performed as expected. Somewhat surprisingly, considering his adaptability

and ability to sire top-class horses on both turf and dirt, Gone West's results

were slightly disappointing while Forty Niner's lack of success may be more

understandable when one considers his below par record as a turf sire.

As a broodmare sire, Danzig also owns good results. Indeed, from 21

representatives, 13 were overachievers for a rate of nearly 62 percent. Top of

the list in this category for those with 15 or more is Air Forbes Won, winner of

the 1982 Wood Memorial (G1) whose best produce as a broodmare sire has been the

millionaire Crafty Shaw. On the Polytrack, the offspring of Air Forbes Won's

daughters have done well from a smallish sample, including Pinecrest Inn

(Petionville), who won at Turfway in February at odds of 11-1.

With a larger

number of 31 representatives, Relaunch's 74 percent record as a broodmare sire

is impressive. As a stallion, Relaunch has had great success siring horses such as

Breeders' Cup Classic winner Skywalker as well as Grade 1 winners One Dreamer

and Waquoit. However, he is another sire whose success is not limited to the

dirt, as he is also responsible for multiple Grade 1 turf winner With

Anticipation. Likewise, one of his daughters produced champion and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper, while another one is the dam of multiple Group 1 hero Ad Valorem (Danzig) and

multiple Grade 3 victress Pommes Frites (Dynaformer).

The two tables below give the top and bottom five rankings from 55 stallions

who were represented by horses with at least 15

performances:

Best five overachieving broodmare sires

1.		Air Forbes Won (Bold Forbes)		80%
2.		Relaunch (In Reality)		74%
3.		Geiger Counter (Mr. Prospector)		73%
4.		Cozzene (Caro [Ire])		71%
4.		Gone West (Mr. Prospector)		71%

Worst five underachieving broodmare sires

51.		Halo (Hail to Reason)		37%
52.		Affirmed (Exclusive Native)		36%
53.		Deputy Minister (Vice Regent)		36%
54.		Storm Bird (Northern Dancer)		33%
55.		Meadowlake (Hold Your Peace)		15%

Interestingly, Storm Bird ranks very low on this broodmare sire list just as

he had on the sire of sires table, suggesting that not all descendants of

Northern Dancer are suited to the Polytrack. Also notably toward the bottom of

the list is Deputy Minister, who was also subpar as a sire and as a sire of

sires. Indeed, of his sons at stud that have at least 10 over/under achievers on

the Polytrack only Service Stripe was an overachiever while Awesome Again, Salt

Lake, Deputy Commander and Silver Deputy all underachieved. In addition, Regal

Classic who, like Deputy Minister, is by Vice Regent ranked poorly in the

sires' sire rankings which all suggests that this line is one to be wary of on

the artificial surface.

One final interesting, but not unexpected, statistic that was revealed by

this research is that the overachievers possess more stamina in their sire

lines than the underachievers. This conclusion was arrived at by taking an

average Center of Distribution** (CD) dosage figure of all the overachievers and

comparing it to that of the underachievers. This was done for all three

categories using both the average and median CDs:

Median CD

Overachievers   Underachievers Sires   0.73   0.92 Sires' sire   0.73   0.84 Broodmare sire   0.62   0.84

**The Center of Distribution, or CD, is a figure that pinpoints the distance

at which the individual is bred to perform at his or her best. The higher the

figure the more speed will be found in the pedigree. For example a CD of 1.00

would indicate that the subject should perform best at short distances while a

CD of 0.10 would suggest a stamina-orientated pedigree.

Clearly the Polytrack surface is easier on runners physically. Fewer

breakdowns and catastrophic injuries have been reported, but many argue that

making the surface easier will further promote the breeding of less sound

horses. However, this can be countered by the fact that extra stamina is

necessary for success on the Polytrack -- and breeding for stamina promotes soundness.