Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

MARCH 10, 2007

Freshman Sires for 2007

by Tim Holland

A fun and popular exercise at this time of year is trying to predict who will

be the most successful freshman sire of the year. For many it is also a rewarding

exercise of recalling names that were familiar at the races four years earlier.

This time last year it seemed that the year's freshman sires may have been a

little light in quality. Although two of the stallions who commanded the

highest fees, Came Home (Gone West) and Red Bullet (Unbridled), were

disappointing, the group did in fact turn out to be deep with the top five

stallions -- Street Cry (Ire)(Machiavellian), Johannesburg (Hennessy), Pure Prize

(Storm Cat), Officer (Bertrando) and Orientate (Mt. Livermore) -- each being

responsible for the earners of more than $1 million, which is an unprecedented feat.

Maybe more remarkable is that these stallions produced no fewer than 25 stakes

winners between them. To put that in perspective, a look back at the previous

five leading First-Crop Sires by earnings and the number of stakes winners they

sired for the last five years is warranted:

2005: Tiznow, El Corredor, City Zip, Songandaprayer and Broken Vow sired 9

SWs.

2004: Successful Appeal, Yes It's True, Fusaichi Pegasus, Giant's Causeway and

Cape Canaveral sired 22 SWs.

2003. Stravinsky, Victory Gallop, Doneraile Court, Forestry and Old Trieste sired

10 SWs.

2002: Distorted Humor, Awesome Again, Elusive Quality, Tale Of The Cat and Grand

Slam sired 17 SWs.

2001: Valid Expectations, Open Forum, Smoke Glacken, Siphon (Brz) and Louis

Quatorze sired 11 SWs.

In this column last year, eight "under the radar" freshman sires, who all

commanded stud fees of $7,500 or less, were noted as ones whose offspring might

offer value early in their careers at the betting windows. Here are the

results for their starters in 2006, including the first two races of each

starter:

Horse		Starts		Wins		Profit/Loss to $2.00
Storm Day (Storm Cat)		36		6		+$116.20
Littleexpectations (Valid Appeal)		31		5		+$29.80
High Demand (Danzig)		4		2		+$0.70
Leelanau (Carson City)		16		2		-$10.80
Snow Ridge (Tabasco Cat)		52		10		-$16.80
Outofthebox (Montbrook)		58		7		-$38.90
Texas Glitter (Glitterman)		39		1		-$48.80
Thunderello (Montbrook)		49		7		-$51.10

As one can see, these were something of a mixed bag. Storm Day and Littleexpectations

provided value at the windows as well as each producing a

stakes winner. High Demand did well from limited opportunities and it may be

noted that his son, Swift Demand, who had cost $290,000 as a yearling, broke his

maiden at Santa Anita this February returning $23 and should be worth following.

The others were a little disappointing. Snow Ridge's win

percentage was good, but value was hard to find. This past January 7, Thunder Sword, a first-time starter by Thunderello, broke her maiden

at odds of nearly 55-1.

The freshman sires for 2007 look like a strong group overall, with Empire

Maker (Unbridled) and Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) leading the way stud-fee wise, each

standing for $100,000. Vindication (Seattle Slew) is third highest at $60,000

while Aldebaran (Mr. Prospector) and Sky Mesa (Pulpit) each command $30,000. The

offspring of these should be watched closely but better value may be found by

looking at some lesser known sires whose offspring should be precocious.

Hennessy (Storm Cat), who sired Johannesburg to finish a close second in last

year's Leading First-Crop Sires list, has three sons at stud that will have

their first runners this year including the Kentucky-based CACTUS RIDGE. After

winning his first start in June of his two-year-old season at Arlington Park,

and earning an impressive BRIS Speed Rating of 102 in the process, Cactus Ridge

was shipped to Minnesota for the Canterbury Juvenile S, where he was never

headed and drew off to win by 15 lengths. His third start was the James C. Ellis

Juvenile S. at Ellis Park which again resulted in an easy wire-to-wire triumph,

and he repeated this in his next race, the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3).

Unfortunately, his fourth start proved to be Cactus Ridge's final race, for he

was injured while training for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in which he would

have been one of the top choices.

Much of Cactus Ridge's speed may be attributed to Hennessy, who also sired the

very fast Henny Hughes to win the Vosburgh S. (G1) and the King's Bishop S. (G1)

last year, but there is also speed on his female side. His dam is by Lycius,

who won the Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) and finished second in the July Cup

(Eng-G1), both over six furlongs. In addition, Cactus Ridge traces to Greenland

Park, who was the English champion three-year-old filly in 1979, and champion

older female the following year, for her exploits sprinting against colts.

At last year's yearling sales, 26 of Cactus Ridge's offspring sold for an average

of $46,573--a good return for the $6,500 fee the stallion commanded. Had

he remained sound, there is no telling how good Cactus Ridge may have proved to

be on the racetrack, and if he can pass on his speed and precocity, his early

runners should be watched with interest.

Cactus Ridge stands at Walmac Farm, which is also home to ZAVATA, another promising stallion to have his first crop racing in 2007. By the

sprinter Phone Trick, who also sired the fast and precocious Favorite Trick and

Caller One among others, Zavata broke his maiden at Belmont as a two-year-old in

his second start prior to easy victories in the Tremont S. (G3) and Saratoga

Special S. (G2). Trained by Patrick Biancone, the bay colt may have put in his

best lifetime effort as a three-year-old when he earned a Speed Rating of 113 while

winning the Amsterdam S. (G2) over a field that included Trust N Luck

(Montbrook) and Posse (Silver Deputy). Zavata was represented by 39 yearlings to

sell last year, which averaged $36,043 and included a $230,000 colt out

of the mare Sing Our Song (Miner's Mark), who is from the family of Distorted

Humor.

Posse and TRUST N LUCK, who finished behind Zavata at Saratoga, will have

their first runners this year. One could be well advised to pay attention to the

offspring of both, although the latter may be more likely to provide value at

the betting windows. Although he is a Florida-bred, and he now stands in that

state, Trust N Luck stood his first season in Kentucky, and his 38 yearlings to

sell last year averaged $18,520. A wire-to-wire winner of his debut and of four

starts at two, Trust N Luck briefly entered the Triple Crown trail the

following year with an unchallenged 5 1/4-length win in the Fountain of Youth S.

(G1). However, his stamina was tested and found lacking in his next two starts

when passed, but not disgraced, by Empire Maker in the Florida Derby (G1) and

when weakening to fourth in the Lexington S. (G2). Trust N Luck was returned to

sprinting for the Amsterdam where he showed speed before fading to third in what

turned out to be his last race.

Having cost $2.3 million as a yearling, ESSENCE OF DUBAI (Pulpit) was sent to

California, where he broke his maiden first time out at Hollywood Park in the

care of Eoin Harty and went on to win the Norfolk S. (G2). As with the majority

of the Godolphin-owned runners, Essence of Dubai wintered in Dubai where he won

both the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) and UAE Derby (UAE-G2). The dark

bay colt was returned to America for an attempt at the Triple Crown series which

proved unsuccessful, with a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and a

sixth in the Belmont S. (G1). A wire-to-wire victory in the Super Derby (G2)

late that summer was Essence of Dubai's high point of his season stateside. He was

then shipped back to Dubai, where he made two unsuccessful starts the

following spring before being retired.

Essence of Dubai owns a pedigree to succeed at stud. By Pulpit, who is

the sire of other stallion prospects Sky Mesa, Tapit and Purge, he is out of

the 1987 champion two-year-old filly and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Epitome.

She is also the dam of stakes winner and useful sire Danjur. Essence of Dubai retired to stand in

Florida, where one can expect to see many of his runners, and his 27 yearlings to

sell averaged $26,946.

EARLY FLYER (Gilded Time) won his first of two starts as a two-year-old

before proving himself as one of the better sprinters in the nation the

following year. He  won the Lazaro Barrera Memorial S. (G3) over future Breeders'

Cup Sprint (G1) winner, Squirtle Squirt, who was voted that year's champion

sprinter. Early Flyer then split Delaware Township and Xtra Heat when finishing

second in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G1). From a good

family which includes Grade 1 winner and decent sire Olympio, Early Flyer

retired to stud in Texas, where many of his 30 two-year-olds of this year can be

expected to appear.

Three straight victories as a two-year-old, including the Futurity S. (G1),

were enough to make WHYWHYWHY (Mr. Greeley) the favorite for the 2002 Breeders'

Cup Juvenile (G1) at Arlington Park. However, after being forwardly placed early,

the Biancone-trained colt's stamina ran out, and he faded to finish a

well beaten 10th. After a vain effort on the Triple Crown trail the following

year, resulting in an unplaced effort in the Fountain of Youth, Whywhywhy was

returned to sprinting for the final three starts of his career. It was

apparent that he had not improved on his juvenile form, however, and he was retired without

winning again. Standing in Kentucky, Whywhywhy has 62 two-year-olds for 2007, of

which 39 sold last year averaging $65,436 -- another good return on a $7,500

stud fee.

A third freshman sire who was trained by Biancone is

MAYAKOVSKY (Matty G), who broke a 55-year-old Saratoga track record for 5 1/2

furlongs when he won his debut at the Spa by 1 1/4 lengths. In his

second start, he finished second to Came Home in the Hopeful S. (G1)

at Saratoga, but his lifetime best performance came when he won the Gotham S. (G3)

in his first start as a three-year-old by nearly four lengths despite drifting

badly in the stretch. Based in New York for a fee of $3,000, Mayakovsky sired a

smallish first crop of foals, of which four sold as yearlings, including purchases

for $80,000 and $55,000.

The last selected freshman sire is D'WILDCAT, who is by the sprinter Forest

Wildcat out of D'Enough (D'Accord), a stakes-placed winner of $117,548. A winner of five of

his 18 starts, D'Wildcat was among the top sprinters of 2002 by virtue of

winning the De Francis and the Churchill Downs H. (G2). In the latter, he finished

second but was awarded the victory upon the disqualification of Snow Ridge. D'Wildcat stood the first few seasons of his stallion career

in Canada before being relocated to Florida. His yearlings were popular at

the sales last year, with 20 averaging $42,180, including two that sold for more

than

$150,000.

First season "under the radar" sires for 2007:

Cactus Ridge

D'Wildcat

Early Flyer

Essence of Dubai

Mayakovsky

Trust N Luck

Whywhywhy

Zavata