Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

NOVEMBER 10, 2005

Using dosage for lightly raced two-year-olds

by Tim Holland

One of the toughest challenges a horseplayer may face, but also one that can

produce lucrative rewards, is trying to sort out a field of lightly raced, or

unraced, two-year-olds. Often with little or no form lines at their disposal, handicappers must turn to pedigrees, trainer stats and workout patterns. While

many astute followers of bloodlines are able, with a quick glance at the

immediate pedigree, to sum up the potential "precociousness" of a particular

horse, there are also tools available that can put this into number form. One

such method is the sometimes controversial and often criticized "Dosage System."

Developed by Dr. Steven Roman, Dosage is a system that attempts to predict the

distance potential of horses based on certain sires in the first four

generations of their pedigree. Over the years, the main focus of this method has

been to try to pinpoint the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, but another, and maybe more informative

use for the horseplayer, is to get an indication of whether a

lightly or unraced individual is racing at a distance at which he, or she,

should excel.

To keep things simple one can look at the so called "Center of Distribution"

or CD. Without going into a lengthy explanation, the CD is a figure that

pinpoints the distance at which the individual is bred to perform at his or her

best. To find the correlation between the Center of Distribution and preferred

distance, one can look at the chart below and see, for example, that the average

stakes winner (of any age) at six furlongs has an average CD of 0.90. The

right column shows the desired CD range designed to take into account the added

precociousness of two-year-olds. In a six-furlong race for two-year-olds, the

individual needs to have a CD of between 0.90 and 1.10 to become a "qualifier."

Distance		Average CD (stakes winners)		2YO CD range
6f		0.90		0.90-1.10
6 1/2f		0.85		0.85-1.05
7f		0.80		0.80-1.00
1m		0.70		0.70-0.90
1 1/16m		0.65		0.65-0.85

The November 5 card at Churchill Downs, when the whole program was

devoted to two-year-olds and held over a fast main track with

no apparent bias, provides a good study. In the nine dirt races, 32 juveniles fit the

desired range, an average of 3.55 per race. Of these nine races, five were won by

qualifiers.

Distance		Horses in desired range		Winners		Win payouts
6f		15		3		$7.60, $11.60, $18.60
1m		17		2		$6, $18.20

A $2 win bet on each qualifier would have returned $62, a loss of 3 percent,

and with a little handicapping, a healthy profit could

have been achieved.

The 1ST race on the card was a decent example of how useful these figures

can be. A full field of 12 maiden fillies were going six furlongs, with eight

making their debut, and Cintarosa (Grand Slam) was the solid favorite.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, she had already made two starts, contesting the pace

in both before stopping. Favored in her most recent race, a seven-furlong heat at Keeneland,

she had little apparent excuse for the loss, being on the inside through

moderate fractions. However, Cintarosa's 1.17 CD indicated that she would have a hard

time excelling at six furlongs, let alone the extra furlong she tried at Keeneland.

First timer Smart N Pretty (Elusive Quality) owned good works and was

dispatched as the second favorite after taking a lot of late money. Trained by Dale Romans, she had more a

desirable CD of 1.05. Another to see action at the windows was the Dallas

Stewart-trained Brilliant Star (Storm Cat). She also sported good works, but her CD was out of the range for

the distance at 0.82. The only other CD

range qualifier was Sweetcarolinarose (Cape Canaveral) (0.97), who was cold on the tote board

at more 20-1.

Slightly surprisingly, Cintarosa was not the early pacesetter. That role went

to Brilliant Star who led for the first quarter until Morner (Broken Vow) (CD 0.35) took over,

and she in turn was passed by Smart N Pretty, who went on to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Morner hung on well to finish second and her

CD suggests that she will be more effective at longer distances. Cintarosa showed some speed to be well placed

early but once again failed to finish well, winding up third.

Almost as important as finding horses to win today is spotting horses for

future wagers. There were several horses on Churchill's card who may excel

at slightly different distances including:

Race (distance)		Horse (CD)		Finish (odds)		Preferred distance
1ST (6f)		Brilliant Star (0.82)		4th (3.60)		7f+
1ST (6f)		Morner (0.35)		2nd (9.30)		1 1/16m+ T?
3RD (1m)		She's a Premium (0.29)		3rd (5.30)		1 1/16m+ T
5TH (6f)		Lemons Forever (0.77)		9th (2.60)		1m+
7TH 6f		Preacher Brown (0.20)		8th (3.50)		1 1/16m+ T?

The Center of Distribution figure can also be helpful in indicating a

possible liking for the turf, a surface over which many of the better runners will

have CDs of 0.40 or less. This may be the case with the previously mentioned Morner (CD 0.35). At first glance her pedigree, by Unbridled out of a Gilded

Time mare, suggested dirt, but closer examination revealed that her second dam is

by the influential turf stallion Blakeney. Another who may like the switch to

the turf is She's a Premium (Point Given) (CD 0.29). She was somewhat one paced when finishing

third over the mile, but her low CD and the fact that her dam is by Roberto

suggest that turf is in her future.

There is no handicapping angle that can be used on its own and be expected to

automatically produce massive profits at the window. The Center of Distribution

figure is no exception, but when used as a guide, rather than a rule, it can be

another important clue in the never ending search for high-priced winners.

Dosage and Center of Distribution numbers are available for all horses in the

American Produce Records.