Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

JANUARY 27, 2006

Overachieving female families

by Tim Holland

Noticing that Touched By Madness (Sword Dance [Ire]) is entered for Saturday's

Sunshine Million Turf S. at Gulfstream Park serves as a reminder to pay attention

to overachieving families. Indeed, pedigree handicappers are always on the

lookout for stallions that produce surprise winners, but one also needs to

remember that following certain broodmares can be equally lucrative.

Most horseplayers, even many that barely factor pedigrees into their

handicapping, are familiar with the 2002 Broodmare of the Year Toussaud (El Gran

Senor). A top

class, but temperamental, Grade 1 winner, Toussaud has proven her greatness in

the breeding shed by producing five graded winners all by different sires. Her

first breeding was to Mr. Prospector, which resulted in Chester House, whose

career highlight was winning the Arlington Million (G1) in 2000. The following

year, Toussaud was matched with Seattle Slew from which came the top class filly

Honest Lady, a Grade 1 route winner who also finished second in the

Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). Grade 2 winner Decarchy (Distant View) was next and was soon

followed by Chiselling (Woodman), who won the Secretariat S. (G1). Toussaud's

sixth foal, and leading money earner, is the Belmont S. (G1) winner and Kentucky

Derby (G1) second Empire Maker (Unbridled).

Just as impressive as Toussaud's achievements are those of Personal Ensign

(Private Account),

who was Broodmare of the Year in 1996. A champion herself on the racetrack, Personal Ensign was unbeaten in

13 races and ended her career with a

dramatic win over Winning Colors in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Her first

three matings were to Mr. Prospector, which produced Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)

winner Miner's Mark, and the Grade 1-placed, and later a successful sire, Our

Emblem. A few less productive years followed before a breeding to Easy Goer

resulted in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner My Flag, who in turn would

be the dam of champion Storm Flag Flying. Two-year-olds of 2006 from this

immediate family that are worth keeping an eye out for include Fastbridled (Unbridled's

Song), Rejoicing (Forestry), and My Flag's daughter, Viva La Flag (Rahy).

While Toussaud and Personal Ensign are undoubtedly great producers, they are of

little use to the value-seeking horseplayers who need to find successful

families that the general public does not recognize. One good example is the

family started by Vincesca, a foal of 1982 by the decent broodmare sire Darby

Creek Road (Roberto). Owned through her breeding career by Gilbert G. Campbell, Vincesca has produced

11 foals, nine of which have raced a total of 231

times, winning 57 -- a win rate of nearly 25 percent, which would have produced a

healthy return on investment (ROI) of $2.56 for every $2 wagered.

Bred in Florida by John M. Edwards, Vincesca was sold in Ocala as a weanling

for $3,000, brought $14,000 as a yearling, and was claimed for $22,000 by

Campbell in her fourth start. Racing only as a two-year-old, she won one of seven

starts and was second twice before being bred at three to Shananie, a son of In

Reality. This breeding resulted in a very tough and consistent performer named

Garemma, who won 16 of his 43 starts, including the 1989 Sport Page

H (G3) at Aqueduct at odds of nearly 9-1.

Being by a son of In Reality, it is not a surprise that Garemma was only tried

on the turf once -- without success, but he did sport a good record over off tracks,

which is a trait many of his siblings owned. Indeed, collectively, Vincesca's

offspring own an impressive 31-9-8-2 record over tracks labeled muddy or sloppy, including a 21-1 shocker by her foal of 2002, Favalora (Untuttable), in the

Comet S. at The Meadowlands. In comparison, her offspring on the turf have

compiled a record of 33-5-5-4 -- although 13 of those starts and four wins

are accounted for by Vinnie's Boy (Sejm), whose liking for the grass is

influenced by his grandsire, Danzig.

Garemma is the only graded winner out of Vincesca, but the mare is also

responsible for four other stakes winners, including Shananie's Wish as well as

the above mentioned Favalora and Vinnie's Boy. However, it is her second foal,

Marilyn's Madness, also by Shananie, who is duplicating Vincesca's achievements

as a broodmare, having produced four stakes winners to date from eight horses to

race. Overall her runners have won 50 races.

Trained by Edward Allard for Campbell through her entire racing career,

Marilyn's Madness showed plenty of speed while winning seven of her 29

starts and earned her black-type in the Atlantic City Oaks over a sloppy track.

Her first two breedings were to the very fast Mr. Prospector sire Unreal Zeal, which produced a stakes-placed filly, and Unreal Madness, winner of four stakes

and a close fourth in the Grade 1 Carter H. after setting the early fractions.

Switched to the more turf-oriented stallion Sejm the following year (the same

season that Vincesca was bred to him), Marilyn's Madness produced a turf-favoring sprint/miler similar to Vinnie's Boy named Sejm's Madness.

While this family has enjoyed much success being crossed with a variety of

sires, it is the addition of the turf stamina influence of Sword Dance (Ire) (Nijinsky)

that is of the most recent interest, especially for horseplayers who follow

pedigrees. The first of six visits to Sword Dance for Marilyn's Magic resulted

in Magical Madness, who won the Crank It Up S. at Monmouth in his second venture

on the turf and who later won a grass stakes at Mountaineer Park at odds of more

than

37-1. An unraced filly named Millenium Madness was the second Sword Dance

foal, while the third was Coco's Madness, who won his turf debut and paid his

followers more than $30 before finishing third in the Kent Breeders' Cup S. (G3) on the

grass at Delaware. Rapier Dance, who won on his second turf try and was later

stakes-placed, was next and followed by Touch of Madness, who only recorded one

lifetime start.

Touched By Madness, the last foal by Sword Dance out of Marilyn's

Magic, has been a model of consistency, winning three of his 13 lifetime starts, including a wire-to-wire victory in the Jersey Derby at Monmouth Park in his

second grass race at odds of more than 10-1. His turf record of 5-1-2-0

is more impressive when one takes into account the fact that he was first past

the post in the Kent Breeders' Cup only to be disqualified and placed fourth for

interference in the stretch.

With plenty of other early speed to contend with, and meeting older horses for

the first time, Saturday's Sunshine Millions Turf S. will not be an easy spot for

Touched By Madness. However, his morning line odds of 30-1 are mouth watering. Win or lose, one can guarantee that there will be other opportunities to make

money at the windows on the descendants of Vincesca.