Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

APRIL 5, 2008

Three-Year-Old Colts in England and Ireland

by Tim Holland

With the flat racing season in Europe getting in full swing and the first

colt's classic, the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), just over a month away, this is

a good time to preview the main contenders.

The seven-furlong Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) run at Newmarket in late October has

long been the most important and reliable juvenile test that generally decides

the year's champion two-year-old. The roster of winners includes future Guineas

winners Zafonic, Pennekamp, and Rock of Gibraltar

(Ire) and Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) victors Generous, Dr. Devious (Ire) and Sir

Percy.

Last year's field was as strong as usual, with the hot favorite being the

unbeaten New Approach (Galileo [Ire]) followed in the market by the

American-bred Raven's Pass (Elusive Quality), who had won his two previous starts

including a listed event at Ascot followed by the Solario S. (Eng-G3) at

Sandown. The form of the Solario was flattered when the second-place finisher

returned to win the Royal Lodge S. (Eng-G2). The public's third choice was the Godolphin representative Rio De La Plata

(Rahy), who had most recently won the Grand Criterium (Fr-G1), but had previously been easily defeated by New Approach in

the Curragh's National S. (Ire-G1).

After a slightly awkward start, New Approach never looked at ease over the

good to soft ground, and jockey Kevin Manning started to urge the chestnut to

keep his place fully four furlongs from the finish. Meanwhile Raven's Pass had

assumed a clear lead, but New Approach responded gamely to his rider's urgings to

take the lead and was able to hold off the strong finishing, relatively

unconsidered outsider, Fast Company (Danehill Dancer) by half a length.

NEW APPROACH's racing history to date is remarkably similar to the 2006

Dewhurst winner, Teofilo. Indeed, the pair are both by Galileo (Ire) and trained

by Jim Bolger. Each were unbeaten in the same five races as two-year-olds and ridden throughout by Manning, and

both earned lifetime best Racing Post ratings

of 125 in their respective Dewhurst wins. Hopefully the similarities will not

continue this spring as Teofilo was unraced as a three-year-old having been

injured -- although the similarities should resume when New Approach joins Teofilo

at stud at the conclusion of his racing career, the pair having been secured for

stallion duty by Darley.

New Approach will go straight to the Guineas, for which he is currently the

warm ante-post favorite, without a prep. The extra furlong of the Guineas should

not pose a problem and those that suspect he will not stay the 1 1/2-mile

trip at Epsom may consider that while his dam is indeed by the sprinter Ahonoora, she had enough stamina herself to finish second in the Yorkshire Oaks

(Eng-G1).

Furthermore, it should be recalled that Ahonoora sired Dr. Devious (Ire), winner of the

1992 Derby -- this in addition to his own sire Galileo proving to be a solid

stamina influence.

After being outpaced in the early stages of the Dewhurst, FAST COMPANY made a

powerful run on the far side a furlong from home and, while in the end he was

always held by the winner, briefly looked like the winner. This was a fine

performance for the son of Danehill Dancer who had been bought by the Maktoums

(although left to be trained by Brian Meehan) after his Acomb S. (Eng-G3) win at

York in August. The quality of the Acomb had looked questionable, which in big

part accounted for Fast Company being allowed to start at 14-1 in the Dewhurst.

This performance promoted him to be the leading Godolphin two-year-old as the

outfit's more fancied entrant, Rio De La Plata, again proved to be a touch below

the best by finishing fourth with no apparent excuses. Fast Company, like New

Approach, is expected to go to the Guineas without a prep while Rio De La Plata

will probably be sent to the slightly less competitive French equivalent.

Fast Company's position as Godolphin's number one prospect for this year's

classics was short-lived as, one week after the Dewhurst, the owner's IBN

KHALDUN (Dubai Destination) recorded his fourth consecutive victory in the

Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1), a race that has provided standout winners such as

Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral (Ire) in recent years. It is easy to discount the form of the Racing

Post Trophy -- the second-place finisher was the Royal Lodge winner City Leader

(Fasliyev), whom the Dewhurst third Raven's Pass had easily defeated in the

Solario, and the third- and fourth-place finishers were both 66-1 outsiders.

However, on pedigree the sky is the limit for the improving Ibn Khaldun, being

out of the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) winner Gossamer (GB) (Sadler's

Wells), who is a full sister to Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner Barathea (Ire).

Stonerside Stable's RAVEN'S PASS is expected to be seen in either the Greenham

S. (Eng-G3) at Newbury over seven furlongs or Newmarket's Craven S. (Eng-G3)

over the Guineas one-mile trip in mid-April. Being by the speed influential

Elusive Quality and out of Ascutney (Lord At War [Arg]), whose best performance

came in winning the Miesque S. (G3) over a mile on the turf at Hollywood Park,

it is reasonable to expect that Raven's Pass will be best at distances up to a

mile but probably not any further. It is also logical to agree with his

trainer's view that he is unsuited by soft ground -- which did not help his

chances in the Dewhurst.

If Raven's Pass opts for the Craven, he may meet the promising colts TWICE

OVER (Observatory) and RIVER PROUD (Proud Citizen) for whom this event has been

tentatively penciled in. The former, trained by Henry Cecil for Khalid Abdullah,

won his two starts of 2007, including a 10-furlong allowance at Newmarket which,

combined with his being out of a stakes-winning mare by Caerleon from the family

of last year's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) third-place finisher

Passage of Time (Dansili [GB]), suggests he may be more of a Derby prospect as opposed to the

Guineas. The opposite, however, may be said for the Paul Cole-handled River

Proud, who is out of a half-sister to dual Breeders' Cup Mile winner, Da

Hoss. His race record, which included a good second in the six-furlong July

S. (G2) at Newmarket and a disappointing effort over a mile in the Racing Post

Trophy, indicates that sprinting may be his game.

Short distances may also be preferable for WINKER WATSON (Piccolo), who

defeated River Proud in the July in mid-summer but was not seen racing since,

firstly due to soft ground causing his withdrawal from the Prix Morny (Fr-G1) and

later due to a minor ailment. Largely through trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam's

confidence that he will stay a mile, he is being aimed at the Guineas with a prep

in either the Craven or Greenham possible. Chapple-Hyam says that Winker Watson

has done well and grown a lot over the winter, and his confidence is backed up by

some solid wagering on the chestnut who is currently on offer at a relatively

low 14-1.

The winner of the six-furlong Prix Morny, benefiting from Winker Watson's

absence, was MYBOYCHARLIE (Danetime), who followed this victory with a fine third-place finish in the National behind New Approach when his chances looked

compromised by the extra furlong. Danetime has made his mark as a sire of

sprinters and with more speed coming from Thatching on his dam's side, it will be no

surprise if Myboycharlie skips the Guineas and is kept for sprinting.

There will be considerable American interest in the exploits of last year's

winner of the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, NOWNOWNOW. The son of

Whywhywhy, who has been with David Wachman in Tipperary for the past few weeks

and is likely to make his first start of the year in the Guineas, showed

tremendous acceleration over the soft Monmouth turf indicating that he will be

well suited to the European style of racing.

Sir Michael Stoute is no stranger to English classic success with four Derby

wins and six Two Thousand Guineas victories to his name. His most promising

three-year-old for this year may be the Juddmonte-owned CONFRONT, who is from the

first crop of champion Nayef , winner of four Group 1 races including the

Champion S.(Eng-G1) and who is also responsible for a leading One Thousand

Guineas (Eng-G1) contender in Spacious. After making a promising debut at

Newbury, Confront, who is out of a half-sister by Danzig to champion Reams of

Verse, broke his maiden impressively at Ascot. Confront's primary goal may be the

Derby, although a Guineas run is still possible for this colt who recently

cantered under Stoute's new work rider Kieren Fallon -- who partnered two

of each of the trainer's Epsom Derby and Two Thousand Guineas winners.

Somewhat conspicuous by their absence at the head of the betting markets for

the 2008 classics are entrants from Ballydoyle. However, Aidan O'Brien will not

be unrepresented with his best Guineas prospect being JUPITER PLUVIUS, who is by

Johannesburg out of a winning mare by Boundary. After breaking his maiden in

October at the Curragh, Jupiter Pluvius reappeared just eight days later to win

the Killavullen S. (Ire-G3) at Leopardstown and will be sent to Newmarket without a

prep this spring. Interestingly this is the exact program that was employed by

Footstepsinthesand (GB) three years ago and who is joined by

King of Kings (Ire), Rock of Gibraltar and George Washington (Ire), who have also come from this yard to win the Guineas

in their first start of the

year.

Pedigree-wise Jupiter Pluvius appears best suited to a mile distance, and Ballydoyle's leading Derby prospects could be two royally bred colts, KINGDOM OF

NAPLES and WASHINGTON IRVING, who have made just one start apiece. The former

broke his maiden at Navan in October and is by Sadler's Wells out of a

three-quarter sister to Grade/Group winners Numerous, Jade Robbery and Chequer.

Meanwhile, Washington Irving (Montjeu [Ire]) finished fourth as the favorite in

a field of 18 maidens at the Curragh and is a half-brother to the Epsom Oaks

(Eng-G1) winner and champion Alexandrova (Sadler's Wells) as well as Magical

Romance (Barathea [Ire]) who won the Cheveley Park S. (Eng-G1). Washington

Irving, as low as 14-1 with some bookmakers for the Derby, may make his seasonal

debut in a maiden at Leopardstown this Sunday but there has been no word on

plans for Kingdom of Naples.

Three-year-old colts to watch:

One mile -- 1 1/2 miles: CONFRONT & IBN KHALDUN

Mile: JUPITER PLUVIUS & RAVEN'S PASS

Sprint: MYBOYCHARLIE & WINKER WATSON