Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

DECEMBER 1, 2005

Pedigrees and preferences

by Tim Holland

Two recent reminders showed how important it is for turf

handicappers to pay attention to the state of the course. When the main track is

labeled "sloppy" or "muddy," it is routine for horse players to look for horses

who are either bred to like an off track or have performed well over one in

the past. However, when there has been significant rain and the turf course has

become "soft" or "yielding," many players are guilty of paying little or no

attention to the underfoot conditions.

The most recent reminder occurred last weekend when English-based trainer

Luca Cumani saddled Alkaased (Kingmambo) to win the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) in world

record time over firm turf. An injury forced Alkaased to sit out France's Prix

de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), but he still had a chance to make the Breeders Cup

Turf (G1) at Belmont for which he had been pre-entered. However, after eyeing

the New York weather early in the week, Cumani decided that the chance of

undesirable soft ground was a good final excuse to pass and hope for firmer

ground at Tokyo. In Europe, with grass racing run every day from April through

November over ground conditions ranging from hard to heavy, trainers become

experts at working around the weather. The trainer's shrewd handling and

knowledge of his horse's preference was rewarded with a win in the world's

richest turf race.

While it might seem mystifying that Alkaased would prefer firmer turf, it

starts to make sense when one looks at his pedigree. Alkaased is by Kingmambo

(Mr. Prospector), a French classic winner who stands in Kentucky. Kingmambo has

been a huge success as a stallion, so much so that his fee for 2005 was $300,000.

With nine crops racing, Kingmambo's grass runners appear to be most

effective with dry ground.

His best female turf performer in America has been

Voodoo Dancer, whose career highlight came when winning the 2003 Diana H. (G1), beating Tates Creek (Rahy). She attempted softer underfoot conditions twice,

including her worst lifetime race when unplaced in

Keeneland's Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup (G1) as the strong favorite. Kingmambo's leading American

male turf runner to-date is King Cugat, a $1.2 million earner whom bad luck seemed to follow

around. Favored for the 2000 Breeders Cup Mile (G1) run on firm turf at

Churchill Downs, he lost all chance through a very troubled trip. King Cugat finished second

in five Grade 1 races, with his powerful

late kick being hampered by soft ground on three occasions.

Two of Kingmambo's best offspring are in fact well proven on soft going.

El Condor Pasa, a winner in eight of 11 starts including a

Japan Cup victory, finished second in the 1999 Arc over a very soft turf. The Japanese champion gained the lead in the stretch only to

be overhauled by the exceptional Montjeu (Ire) (Sadler's Wells). Meanwhile, the

brilliant French filly Divine Proportions won nine of her 10 races, including

five Group 1s on courses rated soft or good. While this may seem to negate the

theory that Kingmambo's produce need firm ground, it must be strongly noted that

both of these superior runners are out of mares by Sadler's Wells, a huge soft

ground influence.

The other reminder to pay attention to pedigrees on off courses was prompted this fall

by Shakespeare (Theatrical [Ire]), who brought his unbeaten record to the Breeder's Cup Turf

(G1). The major question he faced was whether he could be effective over the

rain sodden turf to compete with the likes of Bago (Fr) (Nashwan), Azamour (Ire)

(Night Shift), Ace (Ire) (Danehill) and Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun), who were all

proven on soft courses.

Unfortunately for Shakespeare's supporters, who dispatched him as the 3.90-1 second

choice, the answer was no.

Shakespeare never looked at ease during the race and managed to only beat one horse home in an extremely disappointing performance.

Pedigree handicappers could have made a good case to stay away from him since

Theatrical (Nureyev) has already established himself as a poor soft ground

producer.

Many may remember his daughter Astra finishing unplaced at 3-5 odds in the 2001 Beverley D.

S. (G1) over a course labeled yielding. Coming off an

easy victory in the Beverley Hills H. (G1), she looked to have this race at her

mercy and on her way to an Eclipse Award. In the fall of 1998, another

daughter, Auntie Mame, also had her Eclipse hopes quashed by soft underfoot

conditions when unplaced in the Matriarch S. (G1) at Hollywood Park. Duda, Startac

and Vaudeville are other offspring by Theatrical who turned in uncharacteristically

bad performances on soft ground.

Interestingly, Nureyev (Northern Dancer), the sire of Theatrical, is also the

broodmare sire of Kingmambo, suggesting that he may be the "culprit" in this

aversion to wet conditions. Deeper investigation of Nureyev's own offspring

reveals more turf success on the harder, firmer West Coast courses than on the East

Coast. Indeed, Stately Don, Alwuhush, Spinning World, Miesque, Annoconnor and

Theatrical are all sons or daughters of Nureyev who recorded Grade 1 grass victories in California. Of these six,

only the two most outstanding, Miesque and Theatrical, won at the top level in

the East. Furthermore, Nureyev's influence in Californian turf racing was seen

this year through Grade 1 performances by his grandsons Castledale (Ire) (Peintre

Celebre) and King of Happiness (Spinning World), as well as by the success of

prominent turf sire Unusual Heat (Nureyev).

The number one example of a sire whose progeny enjoy some "give in the

ground" is the world's leading turf sire Sadler's Wells. Mentioned above as the

broodmare sire of El Condor Pasa and Divine Proportions, his biggest American

success this year came when his son Powerscourt (GB) took the Arlington Million

(G1). This was another example where pedigree handicappers had an advantage.

Dispatched at over 5-1, Powerscourt was something of an overlay when one

considered he easily "won" the 2004 edition on firm footing only to

disqualified. Although he faced slightly better this year, that factor was

canceled out by the fact that rain made this year's ground much more to his

liking. Other performers by Sadlers Wells with North American Grade 1 victories over soft

ground to their credit include Northern Spur (Ire), Beat Hollow (GB), Ballingarry

(Ire),

High Chaparral (Ire), In the Wings (GB) and Barathea (Ire).

Sadler's Wells has also made his mark as a sire of sires. His son El Prado

(Ire)

produced 2004 champion turf horse Kitten's Joy, whose victories included the Joe

Hirsch Turf

Classic (G1) over a turf course labeled yielding. El Prado is also the sire this

year's Breeders Cup Mile winner, Artie Schiller, who took advantage of the softish turf to record his first Grade 1 win. Another son of Sadler's Wells is

King's Theatre (Ire), who sired the wire-to-wire winner of this years Sword Dancer

Invitational S. (G1)

over a turf rated good.

While the overall lesson here is to be wary of runners coming from sire lines

that might not be suited to today's surface, one most remember to use this as a

guide, rather than a rule, because there are always exceptions. For example, Theatrical himself won the Turf Classic at Belmont over a course rated soft

through sheer class. On the same course with similar conditions, his daughter

Dahlia's Dreamer took the 1994 Flower Bowl (G1) by 13 lengths after being

allowed an uncontested lead. Likewise, offspring of Sadler's Wells have been able to

overcome firm surfaces, with both High Chaparral and Islington (Ire) asserting their

authority with Breeders Cup wins over firm California courses.