Preakness Report

PREAKNESS REPORT

MAY 15, 2008

by James Scully

BIG BROWN (Boundary) will take the show to Baltimore on Saturday, and the

second leg of the Triple Crown appears well within his grasp. Six of the last 11

Kentucky Derby (G1) winners have captured the Preakness S. (G1) two weeks later

at Pimlico -- the 1 1/2-mile Belmont S. (G1) always spoils the party -- and Big

Brown is at a different level from his competition.

Speed ratings don't always serve as the perfect gauge, but they aptly tell

the story this year. Big Brown earned a 110 BRIS Speed rating in the Florida

Derby (G1), six points better than any number of his Kentucky Derby rivals this

season. The flashy bay colt received a 108 for his 4 3/4-length score at

Churchill Downs; none of his Preakness challengers own a Speed rating within

five points of that figure. His past performances catch your eye. Big Brown

captured his first start by 11 1/4 lengths. Next came a 12 3/4-length trouncing,

and he entered the Derby off a five-length romp in the Florida Derby. He's won

each start so easily.

Trainer Richard Dutrow's barn is winning at a 23 percent clip this year, and

jockey Kent Desormeaux is in the right groove presently. The Cajun-bred rider

picked up the mount aboard Japanese sensation Casino Drive (Mineshaft) in

Saturday's Peter Pan S. (G2) and guided the once-raced colt to a 5 3/4-length

win. Casino Drive, a half-brother to Belmont winners Rags to Riches and Jazil,

earned a whopping 109 BRIS Speed rating while making his U.S. debut and looks

like the only viable challenger to Big Brown's Triple Crown pursuit, but we'll

have to wait until the Belmont for the coveted match-up.

Surprisingly, Big Brown hasn't scared away the competition in Saturday's

Preakness. Twelve horses will line up to challenge the big horse, including the

likes of HEY BYRN (Put It Back), RILEY TUCKER (Harlan's Holiday), STEVIL

(Maria's Mon) and TRES BORRACHOS (Ecton Park). They're grossly overmatched,

better suited for the Ohio Derby (G2) than the Preakness.

BEHINDATTHEBAR (Forest Wildcat), YANKEE BRAVO (Yankee Gentleman) and RACECAR

RHAPSODY (Tale of the Cat) are fringe prospects with decent credentials; deep

closers looking to clunk up for a minor award. Multiple stakes winner GIANT MOON

(Giant's Causeway) owns more tactical speed and will enter on the upswing for

Richard Schosberg, but the Wood Memorial (G1) fourth-place finisher probably

isn't good enough at this stage of his career to make an impact. Local favorite

ICABAD CRANE (Jump Start) exits a victory in the Federico Tesio S., which

produced Preakness runners-up Magic Weisner (2002) and Oliver's Twist (1995),

but he's not in the same class of those horses with a career-best 94 Speed

rating.

GAYEGO (Gilded Time), MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno) and KENTUCKY BEAR (Mr. Greeley)

have the best chance at a colossal upset. Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Gayego

missed the break in the Kentucky Derby and never got untracked, retreating

readily to 17th in the final stages. He's capable of better. First or second in

his first five outings, the dark bay colt earned a 101 Speed figure in the

Arkansas Derby, and the Paulo Lobo trainee should be able to secure a trip on or

near the early lead with his speed. Macho Again didn't show much earlier this

year, but he's apparently turned things around, winning the Derby Trial S. in

superb fashion last time out. The Dallas Stewart pupil figures to be running

late.

Kentucky Bear holds some intrigue. A smashing 6 1/2-length debut winner at

Gulfstream, he wasn't ready for the big time when making his stakes bow in the

Fountain of Youth (G2) next out, finishing seventh. The chestnut gained a

measure of redemption in the Blue Grass S. (G1), offering an extremely wide bid

for third, and Kentucky Bear apparently has been training extremely well in

recent weeks for Reade Baker. He's a promising individual.

A Big Brown-Kentucky Bear exacta would be fitting in this era of light

campaigning -- they have only seven starts between them.

Good luck in the Preakness!