Deterministic all heart to win poignant Manhattan for Clement stable

Two weeks to the day after the passing of trainer Christophe Clement, his son Miguel scored his first stakes victory with Deterministic in Sunday’s $1 million Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche masterminded his trip on the front end, and the gutsy colt dug deep to hold on from the fast-finishing Integration. Clement nearly had the exacta, with Far Bridge a neck away in third. 

“It is beyond emotional the last two weeks, to be honest with you,” said Miguel, who had been his father’s assistant. “Both professionally and personally. A massive emptiness to win this race without my Dad, but life goes on.”

The Manhattan had been postponed from Saturday’s Belmont (G1) card, along with the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Jaipur (G1), due to significant rainfall. Its change of conditions from 1 3/16 miles on the Mellon turf to 1 1/8 miles on the inner turf played to the strengths of Deterministic, who arguably might have been stretched over the extra sixteenth. But its original distance would have suited stablemates Carson’s Run and Far Bridge, so the barn was well stocked for any eventuality.

Deterministic brought a perfect 3-for-3 mark at this trip on turf, all in graded stakes. Hero of last year’s Virginia Derby (G3) (its final incarnation as a turf race) and Hill Prince (G3), the son of Liam’s Map, wired the May 3 Fort Marcy (G2) by 4 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct. Carmouche was aboard for the first time that day, and their rapport proved to be clutch here.

Striding comfortably to the fore, Deterministic set fractions of :23.69, :48.47, and 1:12.99 on a course rated good. Tucson, who drew alongside early, eased back into second before giving way on the far turn. 

That opened the door for the hedge-skimming Far Bridge to tip out and take a run at the leader. But Deterministic had the superior turn of foot. As he kicked away, and Far Bridge boxed on, they appeared on the verge of dominating the finish.

Then Integration suddenly burst into the picture in deep stretch. Gaining ground with every stride, he threatened to spoil the Clement celebration. Integration hurtled past Far Bridge, and his momentum propelled him inexorably nearer to Deterministic in the final strides.

Deterministic, as though aware of the moment, reached for the wire and managed to keep his head in front. The 5.80-1 chance returned $13.60, but the result was priceless.

Carmouche discussed the emotional aspect of the win in the immediate postrace interview with Maggie Wolfendale, on horseback, during the America’s Day at the Races broadcast.

“Our Daddies are always looking down on us and fightin’ for us,” said Carmouche, who lost his own father, Sylvester, last August. 

Carmouche expanded upon the theme in his comments to NYRA publicity.

“Once I turned on the backside, I was in cruise control. I wasn’t getting no pressure. He was relaxed and into his stride like I had him at Aqueduct. Just an amazing horse. Whenever I got to the top of the lane, I asked him to quicken, and he quickened right away. He heard those horses coming, but he was just floating along. He was just running, man.

“I am just very happy for Miguel and the Clement family. They’ve been through a lot in the last couple weeks and last six months—whatever you want to call it—we’ve all been through that, and it’s a hard thing to go through. But the good thing is, his daddy left him a legacy, and he’s going to make sure he stays strong with it and keeps pushing hard. I’m just glad that I’m part of the team.

“A Grade 1 in Saratoga for me. I can’t explain it. It’s just pure joy, man,” added Carmouche, who on May 31 received the coveted George Woolf Award bestowed by his fellow jockeys. 

“Maybe (both my dad and Christophe Clement) were here today riding (with me). That’s the way I thought of them. With that kind of energy, I hope it helped us push through this to get this Grade 1.” 

Integration’s rider, John Velazquez, wished that he’d had as sweet a passage.

“It was hard to get position where I wanted to be,” Velazquez said. “Couldn't get into position and move his body inside, he'd run on top of someone, so I tried to keeping him there, keeping him there. Three-eighths pole, Javier (Castellano, aboard Corruption) came in a bit there, and it took his momentum, though. He got passed after that for two jumps, and I had to engage him again, and by the time I got out, that little bit cost me right there.”

The top three pulled well clear of the rest. Corruption reported home fourth, followed by Endlessly, 1.85-1 favorite Spirit of St Louis, Carson’s Run, and the tailed-off Tucson. Highway Robber was scratched and re-entered in Saturday’s Chorleywood S. at Churchill Downs. 

Spirit of St Louis was adversely affected by the one-day delay, according to jockey Manny Franco. The Chad Brown trainee was too on the muscle after an unexpected day of inactivity, and his usual kick was frittered away. 

“In the beginning of the race, he was trying to pull more than he does, but he had a day off yesterday,” Franco said. “Chad told me he was a little bit worried about that, that he came today on the bridle. He never settled like he did before, so I think that cost me a little bit. He lost some energy in the beginning of the race. (The turf course) is not that bad, so I don’t think that’s an excuse. It just wasn’t his day today.”

It was Deterministic’s day at the Spa, and the dark bay boosted his bankroll to $1,576,015 from a record of 12-6-3-2. Campaigned by St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable, the $625,000 Keeneland September yearling, started out as a promising prospect on dirt. 

Deterministic went last-to-first in his unveiling as a juvenile at Saratoga in the summer of 2023. Shelved until the following year, he resurfaced to win the Gotham (G3) and put himself on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail. Those dreams were dashed by his eighth in the Wood Memorial (G2).

“To be honest, when he ran poorly in the Wood Memorial, we were all devastated,” Miguel said. “Even before that, I had a small inclination because I took him on the infield and he moved like a dream, but there was no chance after winning the Gotham that we could tell someone, ‘hey, he actually moved remarkably well on the grass.’ 

“Dad was already stereotyped and labeled as a turf trainer, so if I did that after the Gotham, before running in the Kentucky Derby, potentially, it would have been the end of us, so I kept my mouth shut."

After Deterministic tried dirt once more in the Peter Pan (G3) and finished a non-threatening fifth, the time had come for the switch to turf. His form turned around with placings in last summer’s Manila (G3) and Saratoga Derby (G1). His Virginia Derby and Hill Prince trophies were bookended by another placing in the Jockey Club Derby (G3). Carson’s Run outstayed him in the Saratoga and Jockey Club Derbies, but Deterministic has exacted revenge in the Fort Marcy and Manhattan. 

It was fitting for Miguel to score his landmark win in the Manhattan, a race that Christophe won three times at its original (and future) home of Belmont Park. Deterministic represents the legacy handed on from father to son.