Deterministic smashes course record in Manhattan repeat

The race conditions changed since Deterministic’s poignant victory in last year’s Manhattan (G1), but the Miguel Clement trainee adapted on Saturday to defend his title in record-breaking time at Saratoga.

The 2025 Manhattan was contested over 1 1/8 miles on the inner turf. Deterministic went to the lead and gamely withstood every challenge to prevail by a head, giving Clement his first stakes win just two weeks after the passing of his father, Christophe. 

Saturday’s renewal was lengthened to 1 3/16 miles on the Mellon course. Aside from the distance perhaps stretching him, Deterministic faced another serious pace rival in Rhetorical and a high-class French shipper in Bright Picture, the 2.16-1 favorite.  

Deterministic captured the same prep race as last year, wiring the May 2 Fort Marcy (G3) in his reappearance at Aqueduct. The son of Liam’s Map was a bit ring-rusty that day, but he moved forward in the Manhattan to extend his winning streak to five.

With regular rider Kendrick Carmouche aboard, Deterministic shadowed Rhetorical through fractions of :22.99 and :47.01. 

His connections later revealed that it wasn’t the plan to stalk Rhetorical.

“He broke a touch slow, which I was very disappointed about,” Clement said. “So, we had to go to ‘Plan B,’ which fortunately Kendrick rode him brilliantly, and Plan B still worked out anyways because he's top class.”

The pace lifted as Rhetorical clocked six furlongs in 1:09.83 and the mile in 1:32.92, almost as fast as the final time (1:32.84) for Saturday’s Just a Game (G1) heroine Classic Q. Deterministic continued to press Rhetorical down the lane, and his relentless pursuit paid off. 

“By the time I got to the half-mile pole,” Carmouche said, “his ears started going back, so he was telling me he wanted to get after them. Then by the time I got to the five-sixteenths pole, I squeezed him a little, and then he really said, ‘all right, send me home.’ And I knew the last eighth of a mile, the way he had his ears pinned back, they would never catch him, man.”

Collaring the longtime leader in deep stretch, Deterministic retained his crown and obliterated the course record in 1:50.50. He knocked nearly a second off the 1:51.40 mark established by Say the Word in an August 2020 allowance.

The Graham Motion duo of Test Score and One Stripe closed well, but too late. Deterministic held Test Score by a half-length, with One Stripe the same margin astern in third. Rhetorical wilted late to fourth, trailed by Integration, who was runner-up last year; Make Me King; the non-threatening Bright Picture; Tiz Dashing; and Battle of Normandy.

Deterministic, who paid $11.84, was part of a big day for co-owner St. Elias Stable. Vinnie Viola’s operation also won the Belmont (G1) with Kentucky Derby (G1) star Golden Tempo, a homebred raced in partnership with the Phipps Stable. Deterministic’s other owners include Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable. 

Bred by Hinkle Farms in Kentucky and purchased for $625,000 as a Keeneland September yearling, Deterministic has bankrolled $2,634,765 from his 15-9-3-1 line. The dark bay was initially on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail, winning the Gotham (G3) before finding his true home on turf. Deterministic landed the last Virginia Derby (G3) on the grass along with the Hill Prince (G3), and he placed in the Saratoga Derby (G1), Manila (G3), and Jockey Club Derby (G3). 

Deterministic could go for another title defense in the Aug. 8 Fourstardave (G1) back at the Spa, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). 

“He’s a tremendous racehorse,” Clement said. “He’s a pure athlete. We are very privileged to be part of the ride.

“He’s top class. I’ve always thought he was the best turf horse in the country. He proved that today. I thought we deserved the Eclipse Award last year, but I’m biased. Hopefully, everyone will understand why I think he’s the leader of the division.”