Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

APRIL 19, 2006

by James Scully

One race went according to script and the other turned into a shocker. LAWYER

RON (Langfuhr) posted another convincing victory at Oaklawn, taking the Arkansas

Derby (G2) by 2 3/4 lengths to solidify his status as the likely second favorite

in the Kentucky Derby (G1). SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste) preceded him with a

remarkable performance at Keeneland, surprising us more by the scope of his 12

3/4-length decision than by his upset of three highly regarded rivals in the

Blue Grass S. (G1), and established himself as a front-running threat at

Churchill for Bob Baffert.

The Arkansas Derby began in similar fashion to the Rebel S. (G3) four

weeks earlier, with Lawyer Ron getting shuffled back into fifth along the inside

as the field entered the clubhouse turn, but the chestnut wasn't willing to rate

patiently as he had done before. Instead, Lawyer Ron took off like a bull up the

rail and had grabbed the lead by the time he reached the backstretch. Jockey

John McKee tried his best to hold him, with his feet on the proverbial

dashboard, but there was no stopping the headstrong colt. Lawyer Ron quickly

opened up on a clear lead and slowed the pace down.

After running the opening half-mile in :46 2/5, Lawyer Ron completed the next

quarter-mile in :24 2/5 and then practically slowed to a crawl with a

quarter-mile in a near 27 seconds, turning what looked like a difficult

situation when he raced into fast fractions into an easy setup that fell right into his lap. He cruised through the stretch

much the best, finishing the final eighth

of a mile in a moderate :13 3/5, and remained unbeaten on dirt, improving to seven for

seven overall with his sixth consecutive victory. His only losses have come on

turf or the chemically engineered Polytrack.

Lawyer Ron earned only a 81 BRIS Late Pace rating, but he did finally receive

a triple-digit Speed rating (101) after registering only a 98 for the Rebel and

99 for the Southwest. He'll still bring lower Speed figures than many of his

counterparts into the Kentucky Derby. The Bob Holthus trainee isn't a numbers

horse and has been beating up on questionable company in Arkansas this year, but

that doesn't mean we can dismiss him next time. Lawyer Ron is a win machine

with terrific natural speed. If able to relax early, he could launch a strong

middle move at Churchill that propels him to the front on the far turn. Last

year, Giacomo (Holy Bull) earned only a 100 Speed rating and didn't finish fast.

Lawyer Ron will attempt to get to the lead by the top of the stretch in the

Kentucky Derby and hang on.

We will question the competition. PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow), who appears at

his best going a mile or 8 1/2 furlongs, tracked Lawyer Ron

in second most of the way but was out of gas by midstretch. He still managed to

finish about 10 lengths better than fourth. Runner-up STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude)

was the only member of the field to run a step from off the pace, and the Dan

Peitz-trained gray probably deserves extra credit considering the soft middle

fractions up front. A maiden winner four starts back, Steppenwolfer closed fast

to finish three-quarters of a length behind Lawyer Ron in the Southwest S. He may have regressed a little when third in the Rebel, but he rebounded

with an improved showing Saturday. The fact that he's never earned a

triple-digit Speed rating doesn't bode well for his win chances, but Steppenwolfer did reel off three straight 100+ Late Pace ratings this year while

racing behind mostly slow fractions. He'll finally get a legitimate pace to run

at in Louisville, Kentucky.

Austin Powers may be Baffert's favorite character from the movies, but the silver-haired conditioner

played the part of Dr. Evil in the Blue Grass with the devilishly named

Sinister Minister. Most of the pre-race focus fell upon STRONG CONTENDER

(Maria's Mon), BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) and FIRST SAMURAI (Giant's Causeway),

but they were all overmatched against the dominant front runner.

It's difficult to gauge his performance. Time-wise, Sinister Minister was

amazing. He sprinted to the lead from post 7, clearing the field and opening a

two-length advantage on the rail through an opening quarter-mile in :22 4/5. The

gap grew to seven lengths after a half-mile in :45 4/5, and his three-quarters

split of 1:09 4/5 was only two-fifths of a second off the six-furlong split

established by the super-quick Kazoo (Tabasco Cat) in the seven-furlong

Commonwealth Breeders' Cup S. (G2) one race earlier. Kazoo is a six-furlong

specialist who ran as fast as he could under extreme pressure. Sinister Minister

still had three furlongs left to run on a daylight lead and saved plenty for the

finish. He covered his final three-eighths in a very respectable 39 seconds,

extending his margin through the stretch while being kept to his task. His phenomenal

exploits netted him a 116 BRIS Speed and a 103 Late Pace rating.

How many more comparisons to War Emblem will we hear over the next three

weeks? I don't have a problem with it, but don't leave Wild Syn out of the

equation. Granted, Sinister Minister appears to have more going for him than the

latter, who never won another race after a wire-to-wire upset of Thunder Gulch

(won Derby and Belmont [G1]), Tejano Run (Derby runner-up) and Suave Prospect

(Belmont runner-up) in the 1995 Blue Grass, but Wild Syn had to mix it up on a

blistering Kentucky Derby pace that went in :22 2/5 and :45 4/5 before fading.

War Emblem, who displayed dismal form before emerging as a top three-year-old

with a smashing 6 1/4-length win in the 2002 Illinois Derby (G2), wasn't aided

by the biased Keeneland track in his final prep and set uncontested Kentucky

Derby fractions in :23 1/5 and :47 en route to victory. With the speedball Sharp

Humor (Distorted Humor), Brother Derek (Benchmark) and others in this year's

field, Sinister Minister appears to be facing a pace scenario much more similar

to Wild Syn's, not War Emblem's.

Had he turned in this performance anywhere else, Sinister Minister would look

much more dangerous at Churchill. However, it was no secret that he could be

lone speed at Keeneland and savvy horse players bet him down to 8-1 despite

owning only a maiden claiming victory. In his previous start, he began to tire

turning for home in the 1 1/16-mile California Derby and slammed into the inner

rail. Revisionist history will claim those antics cost him the win, but Sinister

Minister wasn't going to hold off Cause to Believe (Maria's Mon) under any

circumstances that afternoon. He was rank and climbing early in the California Derby, and

jockey Garrett Gomez was practically yanking his head sideways in the Blue Grass

in an effort to slow him down before finally just letting him run on the

backstretch. One probably can't understate how much the Keeneland strip

benefited him on Saturday. Sinister Minister will own the best

Speed rating in the Kentucky Derby field and will put a crimp into the other

fast horses who want to go with him, but how's he going to carry

his speed 10 furlongs?

It sets up an interesting choice for Gomez, who rides both Sinister Minister

and Wood Memorial (G1) hero Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) for Baffert. The

trainer also has Point Determined (Point Given) heading to the Kentucky Derby,

and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up is, for my money, going to be the best

of the lot at 1 1/4 miles. That remains to be seen, though, and anything looks

possible in this year's event.

Baffert summed it up best following the Blue Grass, "It's a wide-open Derby."

The Lexington S. (G2) will provide three-year-olds with one final

opportunity to garner enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field

this weekend, and a couple of Florida Derby (G1) participants -- SUNRIVER (Saint

Ballado) and SAM'S ACE (In Excess [Ire]) -- are listed among the possible

starters. With the Florida Derby being poorly spotted five weeks out from the

main event, the Lexington is the perfect spot to tighten them up for their best

at Churchill. The unbeaten SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) is also expected to

run at Keeneland for trainer Barclay Tagg. Two for two in his career, Showing Up

didn't make his career bow until February 11 and is unraced since March 11. His

inexperience could catch up to him on Saturday.