Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

MARCH 15, 2006

by James Scully

CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria's Mon), the El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner, entered

Saturday's California Derby as the overwhelming favorite and exited with a

four-length victory. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt will be a late nominee

to the Triple Crown and is expected to make his final prep for the Kentucky

Derby (G1) in the April 8 Illinois Derby (G2).

The California Derby took a weird twist in the stretch when SINISTER MINISTER

(Old Trieste) veered inward. The Bob Baffert-trained runner-up broke running in

the 1 1/16-mile event and was rank early before finally settling down a little

on the backstretch. Sinister Minister entered the far turn in good shape,

opening up on his nearest rivals as the late-running Cause to Believe launched

his rally from the back of the five-horse field, and he reached the top of

the lane with about a six or seven-length advantage over the 1-2 favorite.

However, the pacesetter was cornering extremely tight, so much so that track

announcer Michael Wrona said "railing like a greyhound," and a moment later,

Sinister Minister rammed into the inner fence. The horse and jockey Martin

Garcia were lucky to escape serious incident as they veered into the rail again,

with the three-year-old losing his action as Garcia frantically tried to right

their course, and Cause to Believe blew past them. Once he got his stride back,

Sinister Minister continued on admirably, winding up 14 lengths better than the

third-place finisher at the wire. Sinister Minister's supporters were left

wondering whether he would've won if he could've run straight, but that

contention is very debatable. The pacesetter was tiring and Cause to Believe was

closing fast. The winner's performance was still far from overwhelming.

Cause to Believe hasn't earned strong BRIS Speed ratings while beating up on

questionable company in his last two starts. It looked like he would win by open

lengths when he surged to the lead in midstretch of the 1 1/16-mile El Camino

Real Derby, but pacesetter Objective (El Corredor) came back again late to

reduce the margin to less than a length at the wire. That rival got drubbed next

time out in the Santa Catalina S. (G2). Sinister Minister broke his maiden over

$62,500 maiden claiming rivals in late January and then ran poorly in the San

Vicente S. (G2). He made his route debut on Saturday and didn't look like a

horse who wanted to go two turns when climbing early. We'll see whether Cause to

Believe can show more while being tested for class and distance in the

nine-furlong Illinois Derby.

At Gulfstream Park on Saturday, SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) stamped

himself as an up-and-coming Triple Crown prospect with a sharp 2 1/4-length

allowance score. Trained by Barclay Tagg, the chestnut colt dueled for the lead

from the start before shaking free on the far turn and then withstood a game

challenge from runner-up Chatain (Forest Wildcat) in midstretch before drawing

clear late, finishing the mile in a snappy 1:34. He earned an excellent 107 BRIS

Speed rating and remained perfect in only his second start.

Winner of his career bow on February 11, Showing Up is playing serious

catch-up against much more seasoned rivals at this time of the year. One thing

he has going for him is talent. A half-brother to six-time stakes winner and

2003 Pennsylvania Derby (G3) runner-up Gimmeawink (Elusive Quality), he'll make

his two-turn debut in the April 8 Wood Memorial (G1) and will be a late nominee

to the Triple Crown.

Four races this Saturday have major Kentucky Derby implications. Here's a

preview.

In the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) is the horse to

beat. Unbeaten on the dirt (five for five), he exits an authoritative win in the

one-mile Southwest over the track and will bring a four-race winning streak into

the 8 1/2-furlong Rebel. STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude), RED RAYMOND (Deputy

Commander) and MUSIC SCHOOL (A.P. Indy), the 2-3-4 finishers in the Southwest,

will all be back looking to do more over the added distance, and Kentucky Jockey

Club S. (G2) hero PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) will finally reappear under silks for

trainer Steve Asmussen. The big question is whether any horse will run with

Lawyer Run early. Trainer Bob Holthus believes his charge can handle pressure or

rate off other speed if he has to, but Lawyer Ron hasn't faced that issue yet,

dominating each start on the front end since switching back to the main track in

December.

The Gotham S. (G3) also has plenty of intrigue. The star of New York racing

this winter, ACHILLES OF TROY (Notebook), will make his highly anticipated

graded debut in the 1 1/16-mile race over the inner track. He's won his last two

starts at the Big A, the Whirlaway S. and Count Fleet S., in smashing fashion

and registered whopping Speed ratings of 110 and 107. The litmus test comes in

the form of two highly promising shippers, KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) and

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint). Keyed Entry is three for three overall

for Todd Pletcher and exits a highly commendable triumph in the 7 1/2-furlong

Hutcheson S. (G2), defeating First Samurai (Giant's Causeway). The speedy colt

has never been two turns but is bred for endurance on his dam side.

Sweetnorthernsaint, who has won his last three by a combined 33 3/4 lengths,

exits an impressive 10-length romp in the Miracle Wood S. at Laurel.

The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) will have a top Kentucky Derby contender in

BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat), who will be back for his second tour of the

facilities after capturing the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs in his

seasonal bow. Unbeaten in his last four starts, including the nine-furlong

Remsen S. (G2) in November, Bluegrass Cat makes it look easy while not beating

his competition by large margins. He owns a huge upside, so anything short of a

victory on Saturday will be disappointing.

The San Felipe S. (G2) will be impacted by Bob Baffert, who will likely send

four to the starting gate after avoiding Brother Derek (Benchmark) with his best

three-year-olds in the recent Santa Catalina S. (G2). BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the

Gold) is the most accomplished, winning the Sham S. (G3) by 4 1/2 lengths last

out and placing in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) as a juvenile. The silver-haired

conditioner also has POINT DETERMINED (Point Given), an

allowance/optional-claiming victor at Golden Gate Fields most recently, and

last-out maiden scorer POINT OF IMPACT (Point Given). Both are lightly raced

individuals who could continue to develop into legitimate Kentucky Derby

contenders with a solid showing in the San Felipe. We'll find out more about

REFINERY (Victory Gallop), a good-looking allowance winner around two turns for

Richard Mandella last time out, and learn whether a change in barns and tactics

works for A. P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy). A $1.3 million yearling purchase, A. P.

Warrior was transferred to John Shirreffs after failing to rate successfully in

his last two attempts and looms as a wire-to-wire threat on Saturday under new

jockey Corey Nakatani.