Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

APRIL 26, 2006

by James Scully

SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) didn't disappoint in Saturday's Lexington S.

(G2), rallying from off the pace for the first time in his brief racing career

to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths, and the lightly raced colt remains a very

promising three-year-old. Now three for three overall, the Barclay Tagg trainee

appears headed to the Kentucky Derby (G1), where he would be joined by another

unbeaten stablemate, Barbaro (Dynaformer), but a minor leg puncture could still

derail those plans.

Tagg said he still hopes to make the Derby, but it wouldn't be the worst

thing to see Showing Up miss the event. He has only three races to his credit,

making his first start on February 11, and didn't finish fast in the Lexington,

drifting in late and receiving only a 96 BRIS Speed rating. That number doesn't

bode well for his chances in the Derby, and Showing Up has never been farther

than 1 1/16 miles. The Derby will be a completely different ballgame for the

inexperienced colt.

On the plus side, the small but athletic runner has plenty of room for

improvement and may be able to negotiate trouble well in a large field next

time. He earned the chance to test the Triple Crown waters, but his owners

already have their main Derby horse. Showing Up would have extra time to prepare

for the Preakness (G1) and catch most of his rivals coming off a difficult race

at Churchill Downs. That strategy paid off for the connections of Red Bullet in

2000.

Lexington runner-up LIKE NOW (Jules) will skip the Derby and point toward the

Preakness, and the speedster held gamely despite repeated challenges on

Saturday. Third placer BEAR CHARACTER (Dixie Union) didn't exactly flatter the

top two as the longest shot on the board, but the multiple Canadian stakes

winner has improved since stretching out to two turns two starts back.

The Kentucky Derby draw is next Wednesday, and the Road to the Triple

Crown will run in Thursday's newsletter. Listed below are profiles of the Kentucky Derby

contenders:

A.P. Warrior -- Looking for another Giacomo (Holy Bull) this year? A.P. WARRIOR (A.P.

Indy) won't be 50-1, but he's got a chance to run big at long odds. Bred to

relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, he's trained by last year's Derby winner, John Shirreffs, and jockey Corey Nakatani is hungry for his first Derby win (last

five runnings of the Derby have been captured by first-time winners). As for the

colt's form, his effort in December's Hollywood Futurity (G1) and his first

start this year were both  terrible as he refused to rate and fought his jockey early before quitting,

but the dark bay finally showed signs of maturity and turned the corner in

March's San Felipe S. (G2), rallying from sixth on the backstretch to earn his

first stakes score and a career best 101 BRIS Speed rating. There was no pace

last time in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), forcing Nakatani to chase Brother Derek

(Benchmark) in second before tiring late, but that won't be a problem in the

Kentucky Derby. A.P. Warrior doesn't own the flashy credentials of his main

rivals and may have issues dealing with the raucous environment at Churchill

Downs, but the Grade 2 winner is talented. It's not impossible to envision him

launching a rally from midpack.

Barbaro -- Unbeaten Florida Derby (G1) winner initially established his

reputation on grass, winning his first three starts impressively, and made a

seamless transition to the main track when capturing the Holy Bull S. (G3) over

a sloppy oval on February 4. BARBARO (Dynaformer) trained up to the April 1

Florida Derby and received his first serious test, digging in gamely to

outfinish a brave Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) in deep stretch. There's plenty

to like about him -- all Barbaro does is win -- and trainer Michael Matz

believes the dark bay colt will have enough bottom to win at 1 1/4 miles.

Barbaro has the pedigree to win at the distance and may be good enough to answer

all of the questions, but he will bring an unconventional approach into the race

with only one prep in the previous 13 weeks. There's also his running style: he's

never been worse than second at any point of call and this year's field is

loaded with early speed. Barbaro isn't your typical top contender.

Bluegrass Cat -- Ended last year on a strong note, posting wins in the

Remsen S. (G2) and Nashua S. (G3) after breaking his maiden in late September,

but BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) hasn't lived up to expectations at three, losing

the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at 2-5 before finishing a well-beaten fourth in the

Blue Grass S. (G1). Still, he's had an excuse in his last two (threw a shoe on the

turn at Tampa and didn't handle the quirky track at Keeneland) and trainer Todd Pletcher loves the way he's training at Churchill Downs. This was John

Velazquez's Derby horse all year (Ramon Dominguez will replace the injured

rider) and perhaps Bluegrass Cat will finally live up to his advance billing,

but his form this year isn't encouraging.

Bob and John -- Jockey Garrett Gomez stays with the Wood Memorial (G1)

winner, instead of runaway Blue Grass S. (G1) hero Sinister Minister (Old

Trieste), and trainer Bob Baffert made a good decision getting BOB AND JOHN

(Seeking the Gold) out of California (away from Brother Derek [Benchmark])

for his final prep race. That decision could reap dividends on May 6 if Bob and

John continues to improve, but the dark bay will need to carve out a trip --

his forwardly placed run style is a concern given the preponderance of speed in

the field. Critics have harped on the slow finish in the Wood Memorial, but he's

earned big Speed ratings before (106 in his Sham S. [G3] win) and eased up late over

the tiring wet track after putting away Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory). Don't

overlook the fact that he's won three of his last four starts, the lone blemish

coming when fourth following a troubled trip in the San Felipe (G2), but he

still offered a decent rally wide that day. Bob and John

will be tested for class, but he's got a chance if he can relax early.

Brother Derek -- Likely Derby favorite rolled to an easy 3 1/4-length win in the

Santa Anita Derby (G1) and appears to have plenty left in the tank following

three authoritative victories in Southern California this year. Five for five

around two turns, BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) has been handled superbly by Dan

Hendricks and owns excellent BRIS Speed ratings. He rated early when capturing

the Santa Catalina S. (G2) two starts back, but everybody wants to know whether

Brother Derek will sit patiently in the Kentucky Derby while Sinister Minister

(Old Trieste), Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) and other speed merchants mix it up

on the front end. That's asking a lot from the front-running California-bred,

but Brother Derek certainly looks good enough to prevail if he can manage to

find a comfortable spot before pouncing.

Cause to Believe -- Late runners are an enticing option in this year's

speed-laden Derby field, and CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria's Mon) fits the bill. He's

by Maria's Mon, who sired Monarchos to a last-to-first victory in the 2001

Derby, and Cause to Believe will be coming from the clouds on May 6. A

back-to-back stakes winner in Northern California earlier this year, the Jerry

Hollendorfer charge exits a disappointing third in the Illinois Derby (G2),

leading to class concerns at this level, but we've seen plenty of Derby winners

rebound off a subpar performance in their final prep race. Cause to Believe

won't bring the best Speed numbers into the race and has never won past 1 1/16

miles, so it won't be surprising to see him not fire, but the five-time stakes

conqueror remains an interesting dark horse with his run style (triple-digit Late

Pace ratings in last five starts).

Deputy Glitters -- Exits a dreadful sixth in the Wood Memorial (G1), and his

only quality efforts have come at Tampa Bay Downs and in a maiden claiming race.

Connections stated that he didn't like a wet track before the Wood but still

ran him, and they probably know that the Kentucky Derby isn't the best place for

him. DEPUTY GLITTERS (Deputy Commander) has never won past 1 1/16 miles, owns

mostly lower Speed ratings, and does his best running on the front end.

Flashy Bull -- Currently 21st on the graded earnings list, maiden winner ran

poorly in the Florida Derby (G1) last out and probably doesn't want any part of

10 furlongs. The one-paced FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) has done nothing in three

starts this year to suggest he'll leap forward on Derby Day.

Jazil -- A rain dance is appropriate for this lightly raced colt. JAZIL

(Seeking the Gold) broke his maiden at Aqueduct in December and finished second

to the promising Corinthian (Pulpit) when making his three-year-old bow in a

Gulfstream allowance. He experienced a rough trip and didn't fire in his stakes

debut, the Fountain of Youth (G2), but delivered a career best with a stout late

rally in the Wood Memorial (G1), making up a ton of ground through the

stretch to be second over the wet track. He earned a 101 Speed and 114 Late Pace

rating, but you have to wonder whether Jazil can step up with a monster effort

in the Kentucky Derby. That appears unlikely, but the bay colt is headed in the

right direction for the dangerous Kiaran McLaughlin. He's more likely a candidate to

come running late for a minor award.

Keyed Entry -- Grade 2 winner will receive a jockey change to Patrick

Valenzuela and owns triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in all four starts this

year, including a 112 when winning the Hutcheson S. (G2) over sloppy going, but it's difficult to get excited about his chances.

KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) is bred to handle 10 furlongs on his female side,

but the speedy colt has shown a predisposition toward shorter distances and must

avoid chasing a ridiculous pace in the Derby. Can he do something that he's

never done before?

Lawyer Ron -- Is he the latest sensation from

Arkansas (following Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones) to make a serious impact upon

the Triple Crown? "Mr. Consistency" has dominated his competition all

year, winning his last six starts convincingly, and he's unbeaten on dirt (seven for seven).

Visually impressive on the track, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) hasn't

earned the best BRIS Speed ratings recently (98 and 99 in two of his last three

starts), throwing doubt on the quality of his competition this year, but he

did record a 105 when capturing the Risen Star S. (G3) in January. Lawyer Ron

has the explosive turn of foot to make a run for the lead in the Kentucky Derby

if he can relax off an expected wicked pace, and he's proven impossible to run

down in the stretch so far.

Mister Triester -- Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up probably won't appreciate

the added distance and other speed in the Derby field. A maiden winner three

starts back, MISTER TRIESTER (Old Trieste) could still opt for the Derby Trial

S. the week before and bypass the Run for the Roses.

Point Determined -- Improving colt might be overshadowed by stablemates

Sinister Minister (Old Trieste) and Bob and John (Seeking the Gold), but don't

be surprised to see him shine. 6-2-3-1 overall, POINT

DETERMINED (Point Given) finished a good second when making his stakes debut in

the San Felipe (G2) two starts back, but he didn't have a chance off a soft pace in Santa Anita Derby (G1)

last time. He still managed to register a 101 BRIS Speed and a whopping

113 Late Pace number while rallying late to be second, and he'll receive a much

better setup at Churchill. Derby history is filled with late bloomers who put it

all together on the first Saturday in May, and Point Determined is an exciting

prospect for Bob Baffert.

Private Vow -- Ended his juvenile campaign on an excellent note,

winning the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs, but the multiple

Grade 2 hero didn't return to the races until mid-March, finishing a dull

seventh in the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn. PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) didn't give

any indication that he would improve at 10 furlongs when tiring to third in the

Arkansas Derby (G2) last out, and he'll be a serious outsider despite a 2-1-1-0

mark over the track.

Sacred Light -- Ranked 23rd on the graded earnings list, SACRED LIGHT

(Holy Bull) is a longshot to make the field and will be a huge price if he runs.

However, the one-run closer will finally get a legitimate pace. He lost all

chance when stumbling at the start in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but he wasn't

going to challenge Brother Derek (Benchmark) that day. Most of his 2006 starts

in California have come in small fields with soft fractions up front, and the

gray colt has been a work in progress for conditioner David Hofmans. We have

seen signs of encouragement -- BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 115 and a 100

Speed rating two starts back in the Santa Catalina (G2) -- and Sacred Light will

be a candidate to add spice to the gimmicks if he makes it.

Seaside Retreat -- Fifth in the Sam F. Davis S. and beaten 32 1/2

lengths in the Blue Grass (G1), SEASIDE RETREAT's (King Cugat) lone decent

effort this year came when he finished second in the Lane's End S. (G2) over the

Polytrack at Turfway Park. The Derby appears much too ambitious.

Sharp Humor -- Nice horse, but the confirmed front runner will be

jumping into a stiff headwind given all the other ultra-quick horses in the Derby

field. SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) didn't make his seasonal bow until March,

winning the seven-furlong Swale S. (G2), and won't have a lot of bottom to him

with only two starts this year. He's never won around two turns and is probably

facing too much speed to be effective.

Showing Up -- Unbeaten colt captured his stakes bow, the Lexington

(G2), in good fashion, but SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) earned only a 96 BRIS

Speed rating and appears too inexperienced for the Derby with only three career

starts. He didn't make his racing debut until February 11 and has been on a

tight schedule to make the Derby after missing the Wood due to a foot bruise.

Throw in the low Speed rating last time, only one start around two turns, and a

minor leg injury suffered in the Lexington, and Showing Up appears up against

it.

Sinister Minister -- Loved his Blue Grass (G1) triumph, which came by a

surprising 12 3/4-length margin, and SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste) will have

jockey Victor Espinoza, who expertly guided War Emblem to a wire-to-wire win in

the 2002 Derby. Like War Emblem, Sinister Minister came out of nowhere with a

breakthrough performance in his final prep race, and three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert will have him ready for his best in Louisville. However, it doesn't

appear that a jockey can control his early speed and Sinister Minister will have

some seriously fast rivals pressing him from the start. He took advantage of

a speed friendly Keeneland track last time, and the best case scenario is that he freaks out again with another runaway victory

in the Kentucky Derby. Sinister Minister

will bring a field-best 116 Speed rating into the Derby.

Steppenwolfer -- Late runner with a cool name, STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude)

finished second to Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr) in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and

Southwest S., with a Rebel S. (G3) third in between. Late runner will have

plenty of pace to benefit him, but we're concerned that he's never earned a BRIS

Speed rating better than 98. His Late Pace numbers are strong, so don't count

him out of consideration for the bottom of the exotics, but Steppenwolfer may

not be fast enough to challenge for the win.

Storm Treasure -- Earned Derby berth with a runner-up finish in the Blue

Grass (G1), but STORM TREASURE (Storm Boot) hasn't been a serious factor in

either of his stakes efforts this year. While he broke his maiden at Churchill

last fall, Storm Treasure has never won around two turns and looks overmatched

in the Derby field.

Sunriver -- Needs a couple of defections to make the field. A full brother to

multiple champion Ashado, SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) captured a five-horse

allowance two starts back and then finished third in the Florida Derby (G1)

after being steadied early, the only horse in the field to make up significant

ground from off the pace. If he gets in, Sunriver will enter the Derby off a

five-week layoff and still looks light on experience, suggesting that his best

races may come later this year, but the improving Todd Pletcher runner has

earned triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings in his last two starts.

Sweetnorthernsaint -- Thrashed rivals in Illinois Derby (G2), winning by 9

1/4 lengths and earning a 114 BRIS Speed rating, and Maryland-based

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) will enter the Kentucky Derby in

outstanding form for trainer Michael Trombetta. His close third in the Gotham S.

(G3) was better than it appeared, as he traveled wide on both turns over

Aqueduct's inner track after breaking from post 10, and we loved the way he

improved off that performance at Hawthorne. His Speed figures this year

(114-107-105-107) are superb and two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux will be

guiding him. Sweetnorthernsaint has a similar run style to many rivals -- he

wants to be sitting just off the pace with his natural speed -- but few can

match his explosiveness (three wins by nine lengths or more). He looks very dangerous.