Sham

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Long on potential, short on established stars. That's Saturday's $150,000

Sham S. (G3) in a nutshell. The 1 1/8-mile Pro-Ride contest at Saturday could

yield a starter or two for the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1) at the same

distance, and we feel KETTLE RIVER (Congaree) is the best of this bunch. The

Darley colorbearer was an upset 10-1 winner of an entry-level allowance over 8

1/2 furlongs on January 6, and few of his rivals have been able to match such a

performance. A repeat or slightly better should be enough to get the job done.

SETSUKO (Pleasantly Perfectly) is well-bred for the distance and exits a

second in a turf allowance/optional claimer. Though it took him five starts to

break his maiden, his BRIS Late Pace figures for the main track are relatively

sublime (115-100-106-105) and no one should be closing faster than him. He's the

most logical after Kettle River.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR's (Lido Palace [Chi]) maiden score was fairly good from a

BRIS Speed rating perspective, and while we think his inexperience versus

winners prevents him from upsetting the Sham, he can maintain his current form

and still beat most of these, most of whom have a lot of questions to answer.

THE PROGRAM (Harlan's Holiday) owns a win over Setsuko and a narrow loss to

Kettle River, but his last-out allowance score looks weak on paper from both a

Speed and Pace figure perspective. A close fourth to champion Lookin at Lucky

(Smart Strike) in the CashCall Futurity (G1) three back, he'll probably offer underlaid odds for trainer Bob Baffert.

ALPHIE'S BET (Tribal Rule), second to eventual Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) winner

Caracortado (Cat Dreams) in the California Breeders' Champion S. two back, looks

talented enough to garner one of the minor shares if he turns on the

afterburners late. The deep closer might find himself too far back to do much

more than that. OUTLAW MAN (Forest Wildcat) and EL MIRAGE KING (Out of Place)

both exit maiden scores on the local turf, and Outlaw Man would be preferred

having won his diploma over the Sham distance. El Mirage King graduated in a

sprint, but both colts are unproven on Pro-Ride.

The rest of the Sham field looks up against it from a class perspective.

Eleven-time starter STRAIGHTOMIDNIGHT (Spinelessjellyfish) has earned his two

wins against maiden claiming and starter allowance company. WOLF TAIL (Strive)

was unsuccessful in a California-bred allowance/optional claimer last time. VIVA

MACHO (Macho Uno) is still winless after eight races.