Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

JULY 29, 2010

by James Scully

Following a lengthy absence, Thoroughbred Beat returns with my personal

observations on U.S. racing. We'll start off with the top two horses in training -- ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) and QUALITY

ROAD (Elusive Quality).

The Queen: Zenyatta can really get your heart pumping. After becoming

the first female winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), she's reeled off

three more victories in 2010, stretching her unbeaten mark to 17-for-17. The

first two came easy -- the Santa Margarita Invitational (G1) and Apple Blossom

S. (G1) -- but the six-year-old mare needed to dig deep against a top-class rival

in the June 13 Vanity H. (G1). St Trinians (GB) (Piccolo) momentarily had the

dual champion on the ropes when striking the front in upper stretch, but

Zenyatta kept finding more all the way to wire, accelerating furiously in deep

stretch to prevail by a half-length. Nothing beats the adrenaline rush from

watching her finish in a tight race.

The November 7 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs has always been the

goal since she was officially "un-retired" in January and it doesn't matter how

she gets there. If Zenyatta defends her Classic title with an unbeaten record,

she will have carved out an amazing legacy (possibly 20-0) as well as comparisons to the

all-time greats in the sport. She'll be hailed as the

best ever in some corners, with a larger consensus undoubtedly

willing to call her the top Thoroughbred since "Big Red" in 1973.

The wondrous late-running machine still has some work to do, and I'm hoping

she makes a stop at Saratoga for the Personal Ensign S. (G1) on August 29. That's

the probable destination of reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra

(Medaglia d'Oro), who netted her best BRIS Speed rating (110) of the year when

capturing Saturday's Lady's Secret S. in workmanlike fashion. Rachel Alexandra

may still have more to offer, but she hasn't been the same phenom that captured

the Preakness S. (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) and Woodward S. (G1) during her eight-for-eight

campaign last year. Nobody was going by her in those starts, but the

four-year-old filly has already blinked against the likes of Zardana (Brz)

(Crimson Tide) and Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song) this season. She even had

to work to beat Queen Martha (Rahy) in the Lady's Secret. Zenyatta is still the

same beast and doesn't have any rivals to fear in the distaff division.

A victory over Rachel Alexandra would be a feather in Zenyatta's cap

nonetheless -- she hasn't faced a quality front runner in a long, long time. But

whether she ships east or remains on the friendly synthetic confines in

California for the time being, the only match-up that really matters is the

November 7 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. That's where Quality Road promises to be waiting for her.

Quality rules: Three-for-three this year with a pair of smashing

victories in the Metropolitan H. (G1) and Donn H. (G1), QUALITY ROAD has nearly

wrapped up the race for champion older male. The competition just isn't there

for the front-running colt, who has registered terrific BRIS Speed ratings of

113 and 116 in his last two starts. His next appearance will come against a

small group of challengers in the August 7 Whitney H. (G1).

The Whitney is being billed as a match-up between Quality Road and Stephen

Foster H. (G1) winner Blame (Arch), but it won't be a fair fight. Blame

will bring a three-race win streak into the 1 1/8-mile event, but he was

extremely fortuitous, in an unfortunate manner, when Battle Plan took a bad step

in the stretch of the Foster, suffering a career-ending injury that allowed him

to be caught late. Blame, who netted BRIS Speed ratings of 100 and 102 in his

two previous starts, ran nine furlongs in a slower time than Rachel Alexandra

earlier on the program and received a 102 Speed rating in the Foster. He's not

fast enough to scare Quality Road.

Quality Road established himself as the early 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1)

favorite with convincing wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth

S. (G2), but quarter-crack problems derailed his Triple Crown campaign. He rounded

out his sophomore season with a third in the Travers S. (G1) and a second in the

Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), both coming over sloppy tracks. The Todd Pletcher

trainee was scratched from the Classic after behaving terribly at the starting

gate, sustaining minor injuries that quickly healed.

I'm glad Quality Road missed the Classic because he wasn't going to beat

Zenyatta over the fake stuff at Santa Anita and his participation may have had

an adverse effect upon his four-year-old season. As a result of the mishap,

Quality Road didn't go to Dubai for the World Cup (UAE-G1) over the artificial

Tapeta surface, giving him the opportunity to develop into a monster on fast

dirt tracks this year. He's risen to a stratosphere all his own on the East

Coast.

The stage is being set for a titanic match-up between these stars in the Breeders' Cup.

Haskell stars: A recent Bud Light advertising campaign seems

appropriate for Sunday's $1 million Haskell Invitational. When the field makes it way to

the starting gate, track announcer Larry Collmus should exclaim, "Here we go!"

The race has it all in terms of three-year-old male talent. The headliners,

Preakness winner LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and Kentucky Derby hero

SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon), add plenty of star quality. Derby runner-up ICE BOX

(Pulpit) is eligible to make amends for a disappointing eighth as the favorite

in the Belmont S. (G1). Preakness runner-up and Belmont third-placer FIRST DUDE

(Stephen Got Even) is a potential major player in the division this summer and fall.

And perhaps the most exciting three-year-old in training, TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit),

will make his highly-anticipated graded debut.

Trappe Shot is four-for-four this year, winning his first two attempts by a

combined 23 lengths over Florida-bred rivals at Gulfstream. He easily captured a

seven-furlong allowance on the Belmont S. undercard and made his two-turn bow in

the 1 1/16-mile Long Branch S. on July 10, overcoming a bad start to win easily

by 2 1/2 lengths. His recent BRIS Speed ratings are strong (105 and 109) and the

chestnut is bred to relish longer distances.

I don't think any of the three-year-olds are close to Quality Road right now,

but Trappe Shot has the potential to be. We'll find out whether he's the real

deal on Sunday.

Alabama showdown: The top performers from the Haskell and Saturday's

Jim Dandy S. (G2) are expected to contest the Travers S. (G1) on August 28, but the

best showdown at Saratoga could come a week earlier in the Alabama S. (G1),

where divisional heavyweights BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) and DEVIL MAY CARE

(Malibu Moon) are scheduled to meet for the first time.

These dynamic three-year-old fillies may be just as good as their male

counterparts. Blind Luck, who is 6-4-1-1 this year, posted her biggest victory

in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and exits a game tally in the Delaware Oaks (G2). The

Jerry Hollendorfer runner is four-for-four on dirt tracks. Devil May Care, who

rebounded from her 10th-place Derby finish with a facile score in the Mother

Goose S. (G1), exits a dominant win in Saturday's Coaching Club American Oaks (G1),

and I think she has plenty more to offer going forward. The Pletcher pupil is

big and fast.

It's going to be a dynamite Alabama at the Spa.

Upcoming: I'll post my next Thoroughbred Beat in two weeks, taking a

look at some other divisional races and noteworthy performances.