Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

OCTOBER 26, 2006

by James Scully

The Breeders' Cup pre-entries featured few surprises. Barclay Tagg elected to

keep Showing Up (Strategic Mission) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) out

of the Mile (G1) and Juvenile (G1), respectively, and Queen Elizabeth II

Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) winner Vacare (Lear Fan) will bypass an

attempt at the Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Discreet Cat (Forestry) was pre-entered to the Classic (G1) as an insurance

policy in case anything happens to Bernardini (A.P. Indy), but I'm still holding

out hope that they'll both run. Sheikh Mohammed can change his mind. He's a

sportsman. His stables -- Darley and Godolphin -- may have little to gain by running their two sophomore

stars against each other, but Thoroughbred racing fans worldwide would be

winners. A Bernardini-Discreet Cat match-up will generate tremendous excitement,

and it might wind up being one of the greatest races.

Final workouts will be heavily scrutinized over the next week, and there is

plenty of time to change my mind, but I've gone ahead and taken an early look at each event,

highlighting a couple of

contenders in each race who will offer some value.

Juvenile Fillies -- APPEALING ZOPHIE (Successful Appeal) looks like

the speed of the speed and will be a decent price off her sixth-place effort in

the Alcibiades S. (G2) at Keeneland. Her running style was all wrong for the

Polytrack during the opening weekend, but Appealing Zophie figures to be much

tougher returning to dirt with that start under her belt. An impressive wire-to-wire

winner in the Spinaway S. (G1) two starts back, Appealing Zophie is a wire-to-wire threat at Churchill Downs.

COTTON BLOSSOM (Broken Vow) finished fourth at 6-1 in the Alcibiades, racing

close to the pace before being jostled in traffic while leaving the far turn.

The Grade 3 winner still fought gamely to the wire, and she's eligible to improve significantly

next time out. Cotton Blossom recorded sharp wins in her first two starts and

passed rivals to finish second in the Spinaway. The stalker could come through

for Todd Pletcher on Breeders' Cup Day.

Juvenile --Pletcher has a pair of top contenders in Scat Daddy

(Johannesburg) and Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch), and Doug O'Neill could earn

his second straight Juvenile title when he sends out Breeders' Futurity (G1)

winner Great Hunter (Aptitude). These three are the obvious contenders.

STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) will not be one of the favorites, but he

gives Carl Nafzger a chance at an upset. A maiden winner in second career start,

the dark bay colt surged to the lead at the top of the stretch in the Breeders'

Futurity but wound up a little short, checking in third. Street Sense gained

valuable experience in that spot, he's worked well since then at Churchill

Downs, and he's got a good way of moving. He's a very promising colt.

PRINCIPLE SECRET (Sea of Secrets) ran well on the lead in the Norfolk

Breeders' Cup S. (G2) while under pressure and shook free at the top of the

stretch, only to eventually relinquish the advantage in the final strides. He's

quality speed, and his price should be decent off his setback last time.

Principle Secret will have to be caught.

Filly & Mare Turf -- The pickings are slim in this field. Wait a While

(Maria's Mon) and Ouija Board (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) are so tough that an upset

appears unlikely, but there could be some value in the exotics.

French Group 1 winner GERMANCE (Silver Hawk) was the favorite in the Queen

Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup, but she was bumped at the start

and steadied in traffic, costing her all chance. She finished decently for

fourth, and the classy sophomore is eligible to rebound at Churchill Downs with

a top three placing.

SATWA QUEEN (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) finished a good second to Irridescence (Caesour)

three starts back in February and then captured a Group 2 event at Deauville.

She just missed last time in the Prix de l'Opera (Fr-G1), taking runner-up

honors, and the improving four-year-old filly is an intriguing prospect at long

odds.

Sprint -- Henny Hughes (Hennessy) and Bordonaro (Memo [Chi]) will be

the top two betting choices, but neither is overwhelming. The Sprint is always a

good race for an upset.

SIREN LURE (Joyeux Danseur) is the best closer in the field. He offered a

stunning last-to-first rally in the Pat O'Brien Breeders' Cup H. (G2) most

recently, and the five-year-old gelding has really come on this season since

being switched to sprints by Art Sherman. He could roll past them all on

November 4.

WAR FRONT (Danzig) won't be as far back, but he's a threat to reel in the

front runners as well. Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens is winless in

Breeders' Cup races, and this could be the sentimental story that Thoroughbred

racing loves. War Front owns the BRIS Speed ratings to get the job done, and the

habitual runner-up (second in the Vosburgh [G1], Forego [G1], Tom Fool [G2],

Deputy Minister [G3] and Mr. Prospector [G3]) at least displayed the ability to

win when capturing the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders' Cup H. (G2) three starts back.

War Front has trained forwardly since the Vosburgh, and it won't be a surprise

to see him in the mix.

Mile -- The main question surrounding the Mile (G1) is whether Aragorn

(Ire) (Giant's Causeway) is over the top. The likely favorite was a brilliant

winner in three consecutive starts prior to his last, but he perhaps showed

signs of regressing in his last outing. I wouldn't recommend throwing him out,

but I will be looking for a couple of upset candidates.

AUSSIE RULES (Danehill) exits a sharp score in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at

Keeneland, but the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt will probably be overlooked in the

Mile, with Europeans Araafa (Ire) (Mull of Kintyre) and Librettist (Danzig)

attracting more support as well as the top American prospects Aragorn (Ire)

(Giant's Causeway) and Gorella (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]). Aussie Rules earned a 114 BRIS Late Pace

rating for his late run, and I remember Ace (Ire) (Danehill) parlaying a good

showing in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) into a runner-up effort in the Turf

(G1) for O'Brien last year. Aussie Rules has more quality than his stablemate,

and the Shadwell may be a sign of things to come.

MIESQUE'S APPROVAL (Miesque's Son) captured the Firecracker Breeders'

Cup H. (G2) at Churchill in July and tuned up for the Mile with a dead-heat

fourth in the Shadwell. The seven-year-old has some class concerns in the

Breeders' Cup, but he's a gutsy veteran who always delivers an honest effort

since being transferred to Marty Wolfson, winning four stakes. I wouldn't be

surprised to see him hit the board.

Distaff -- Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie) is six for six this year, but

many believe the New York-bred mare is vulnerable as the Distaff favorite. You

have to respect the way she won the Beldame S. (G1) from off the pace last time

following four consecutive wire-to-wire scores, but I'm searching for value.

POOL LAND (Silver Deputy), a stablemate of Fleet Indian and one of three

Pletcher runners in the field, is four for six this year, winning the Ruffian H.

(G1) last out by two lengths. She doesn't get much respect, but the

four-year-old is an extremely classy filly, recording BRIS Speed ratings of 108

(twice), 106 and 104 in her last four starts. Pool Land likes to sit just off

the pace before pouncing, and she's got a big chance at Churchill.

BALLETTO (UAE) (Timber Country) is too much of a bridesmaid, finishing second

or third in her last five starts, but she remains a threat to come calling in

the stretch. There should be plenty of pace in the Distaff, and the late-running

Balletto owns excellent BRIS Speed numbers.

Turf --The Turf (G1) lacks a standout. European invader Hurricane Run

(Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) has dropped four of six starts this season, and top

American contenders English Channel (Smart Strike) and Cacique (Ire) (Danehill)

take turns beating each other.

SCORPION (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) can win the Turf if he's right. A multiple

Group 1 winner at three last season, he returned from a 12-month layoff to

finish second in a listed stakes at the Curragh last time for Aidan O'Brien.

This classy colt relishes the 12-furlong distance, and he's eligible to improve

significantly off the tightener.

T. H. APPROVAL (With Approval) was a hard-knocker last season for Eduardo Inda,

but he's taken his game to a higher level this year, winning back-to-back Grade

2 events before finishing second by a head in the Clement L. Hirsch Memorial

Turf Championship S. (G1) last

out. The gray five-year-old wants every bit of 1 1/2 miles, and he's got a

chance to earn a minor award given his excellent present form.

Classic -- Bernardini didn't scare away the competition as a full

field is set for the Classic. There's plenty of speed in the field, but there

aren't many quality late runners.

SUN KING (Charismatic) will drop far back and make one run at the leaders,

and he's got the quality to be a serious factor if he handles the distance. The

Nick Zito pupil couldn't get 10 furlongs last year, but he might be able to at

four. Ghostzapper is a perfect example of a colt whose endurance improved in the

same time frame, and while Sun King hasn't proven to be in the same class, he's

definitely a serious Grade 1 horse this year, finishing a close second in the

Whitney H. (G1) and Met Mile (G1).

DAVID JUNIOR (Pleasant Tap), a 1 1/4-mile specialist, could make his presence

felt from the clouds. A multiple Group 1 winner this season, David Junior will

be making his dirt debut in the Classic, but he's got the pedigree to handle the

main track  Trainer Brian Meehan has been pointing his charge toward the

Classic all year, and it will be important to note how he trains over the track

beforehand.