Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

AUGUST 27, 2009

by James Scully

Woodward/Travers plan -- There's no Travers (G1) for RACHEL ALEXANDRA

(Medaglia d'Oro), no match-up with Florida Derby (G1) hero QUALITY ROAD (Elusive

Quality), whose reputation will continue to grow with a victory in the "Mid-Summer

Derby." Some fans feel that the fantastic filly is taking the easy way out

in the September 5 Woodward S. (G1), where she won't have to negotiate 10 furlongs and

avoids another meeting with classic winner SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone), but the 1

1/8-mile Woodward makes perfect sense for Rachel Alexandra

and her connections.

With a Woodward victory, she'll get her moment in the sun regardless

of what happens in the Travers. Three-year-old fillies rarely compete in

Grade 1 events against older male horses, and she'll add her name to a storied

list of past champions if she becomes the first female ever to win the

prestigious event. That may never happen again, and there will still be plenty to look forward to in her next

start. Rachel Alexandra will be headed toward either the Jockey Club Gold Cup

(G1) or a confrontation against the unbeaten Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Beldame (G1).

More intriguing is the fact that Jess Jackson also owns top contender KENSEI (Mr. Greeley),

who will enter the Travers off convincing victories in the Jim Dandy (G2) and

Dwyer S. (G2). The improving colt recorded a 102 BRIS Speed rating in both

starts.

Kensei couldn't be doing any better, and this is the best chance he'll have

to beat Quality Road. Why not go for it? Quality Road will keep moving forward

this fall if he remains healthy, but he's potentially vulnerable

on Saturday, stretching out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time off a track

record-setting sprint performance that followed a lengthy layoff due to foot

problems. Besides the fitness question, the heavy favorite's best Speed numbers have come in

one-turn events, a 110 in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a 109 for the Amsterdam

(G2). He earned a 103 for his lone two-turn start, the Florida Derby,

and may not be a true 1 1/4-mile horse at this stage of his career. This is the time to

try and beat him with a thriving Kensei, who will significantly enhance his

value as a future stallion with a Travers score. It would also put him in the

running for champion three-year-old male.

A Travers-Woodward sweep would be a coup for Jackson and trainer Steve

Asmussen. It's the smart play with their talented duo.

Alabama Jewel -- With the exception of Rachel Alexandra and grass

star Gozzip Girl (Dynaformer), the American-based sophomore filly division left

plenty to be desired so far this season. That's why Saturday's

Alabama S. (G1) was ripe for the plundering from a pair of Canadian-based

fillies, CARELESS JEWEL (Tapit) and MILWAUKEE APPEAL (Milwaukee Brew). The

latter recorded a solid runner-up effort, finishing 3 3/4 lengths clear of

third-placer Casanova Move (Langfuhr), but Careless Jewel blew nearly every one

away with her sparkling 11-length decision.

After romping by 7 1/4 lengths on the front end in the July 18 Delaware Oaks

(G2), Careless Jewel was afforded no easy advantage last Saturday. In fact,

early pacesetter Be Fair (Exchange Rate) cut right in front of her entering the

first turn, forcing jockey Robert Landry to steady sharply. Careless Jewel

chased in second until midway on the far turn, opening up on her rivals as she

entered the stretch drive, and extended her lead with Rachel Alexandra-like

precision through the final furlongs. It was a superb performance.

Trained by Josie Carroll, the gray filly made her first three career starts

on Polytrack. She dropped her career bow at Keeneland in April, and broke her

maiden by 3 1/2 lengths at Woodbine on May 9. Following a 7 1/4-length score in

a 1 1/16-mile, entry-level allowance on June 21, Careless Jewel shipped South of

the Border for her dirt debut in the 8 1/2-furlong Delaware Oaks. The

Kentucky-bred lass owns BRIS Speed ratings of 110 and 104 in her last two

starts.

Careless Jewel has come a long way in a short period of time.

Pacific Classic appeal -- A few weeks back, the $1 million Pacific

Classic (G1) on September 6 was shaping up to be a lot like the July 11 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). RAIL TRIP (Jump Start) and

TRES BORRACHOS (Ecton Park), the respective one-two finishers, were both likely, and

sixth-placer INFORMED (Tiznow), winner of the San Diego H. (G2) and Californian

S. (G2), was another top contender. You could wake me when that race was over.

It now looks very appealing. With EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and COLONEL

JOHN (Tiznow) in the mix, the Pacific Classic becomes a serious prep for the Breeders' Cup

Classic (G1).

Einstein showed his prowess over the Pro-Ride earlier this year, recording a

one-length win in the Santa Anita H. (G1), and followed it with a hard-fought

victory in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1). He's disappointed in his last

two starts for Helen Pitts-Blasi, finishing third at 6-5 in the Stephen Foster

H. (G1) on dirt and a non-threatening fifth in the Arlington Million (G1) last out,

but the classy seven-year-old is eligible to regain his best form on a synthetic

track.

Colonel John was sidelined for most of the year, but he returned in

impressive fashion in the grassy Wickerr S. on July 31, posting an easy

two-length decision that earned him a whopping 107 BRIS Speed rating. The

multiple Grade 1 winner appears back on track for Eoin Harty, posting three

sharp works over the Polytrack since the Wickerr, and I rate him as the top

Southern California-based male contender for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

ASIATIC BOY (Arg) (Not for Sale) is another possibility for the Pacific

Classic, and Rail Trip will face a considerably tougher cast than he did at

Hollywood. I'll give the Ron Ellis-trained gelding credit if he's able to win a

second straight Grade 1 event at 10 furlongs, but his best chance this November

will probably be in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Rice Show -- What odds were available on Linda Rice winning the

Saratoga training title at the beginning of the meet? She didn't appear to have

the stock to compete with Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Kiaran McLaughlin and

others, but the Wisconsin native has torn up the summer session in upstate New York,

winning at a 39 percent clip entering Wednesday's program.

With 13 wins in 33 starts, Rice is two victories ahead of Pletcher and three

up on Mott, with the second- and third-place conditioners winning at a 14 and 17

percent clip, respectively. Tony Dutrow (seven-for-23 this meet) is only trainer

in the top 10 with fewer starts.

Rice is 11-for-25 on turf (44 percent) and four-for-10 (40 percent) in stakes

races, and she's had four horses pay at least $16, while most of the winners

from Pletcher and Mott yield less than $10. She's getting the most out of her

runners.