Three Year Old Diary

THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY

MAY 16, 2007

by James Scully

Kentucky Derby (G1) winner STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) will take his game

on the road to Baltimore in Saturday's middle leg of the Triple Crown, and the

Preakness S. (G1) always represents a return to normalcy following the madhouse

environment of the Derby. A field of nine appears likely at Old Hilltop.

We'll find out whether Street Sense is the same horse away from Churchill.

He's turned in solid efforts at Tampa Bay Downs, Keeneland and Arlington Park in

the past, but his two best races have come under the Twin Spires. The dark bay

has also been extremely fortunate in those efforts, closing up the rail without

interference in both the Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He even took the

shortest path when capturing the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Rival jockeys can't

afford to allow Calvin Borel the same rail-skimming tactics in the Preakness.

Street Sense owns top-class numbers (BRIS Speed ratings of 111 and 108 to his

credit), and the late runner can accelerate very quickly. Sentimentally, I'd

love to see him win and pursue the Triple Crown at Belmont Park, but Street

Sense is a candidate to take a step back following his superb showing in the

Derby. The Derby winner remains the horse to beat, but Street Sense isn't

appealing at short odds at Pimlico.

HARD SPUN (Danzig) ran a winning race in the Derby, but he won't get the

uncontested early lead he enjoyed that afternoon. FLYING FIRST CLASS (Perfect

Mandate) is a confirmed front runner whose only chance is on the lead, and

Federico Tesio S. hero XCHANGER (Exchange Rate) is another new player with

plenty of speed. Jockey Mario Pino will need to keep Hard Spun off the engine on

Saturday, but the colt was geared for speed prior to the Derby and may prove too

headstrong to rate. Larry Jones proved the doubters wrong who questioned the

colt's blazing fast workout prior to the Derby. He will attempt to work his magic

again, and Hard Spun has an edge with the Maryland-based Pino in the saddle. We

just don't know what kind of trip Hard Spun will get.

CURLIN (Smart Strike) is the wise-guy horse. Inexperience and traffic

problems conspired against him at Churchill, but the well-built colt still

managed to finish a respectable third. Many are expecting significant

improvement off that effort. Curlin has plenty of room for advancement, with

stirring victories in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and Rebel S. (G3) to his credit

this year, and he has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip in the Preakness

before striking. One drawback is that Curlin has never earned a Speed rating

better than 102. He also didn't beat much in Arkansas, so there's a question as

to how good he really is. Despite these concerns, there's still a lot to like

about Curlin's chances.

CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) figures to be overlooked off his sixth in the

Derby, but he'll enter the Preakness in much better shape. With only one real

prep this year (jockey pulled him up and swerved to avoid a fallen rider in the

Risen Star S. [G3]), the Grade 1 winner tried to win a 1 1/4-mile race against

19 opponents off a two-month layoff. It was no surprise to see that strategy

backfire in the Derby. Todd Pletcher likes to talk about spacing out his horses'

races, but he's never won a Triple Crown or Breeders' Cup race off a 30+ day

layoff. Considering that Circular Quay is still a very fresh horse, Pletcher's

decision to bring him back off a two-week rest makes perfect sense. This time

around, his charge will be much more fit.

I loved his effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2), when Circular Quay blew past

his rivals to win convincingly while registering a 105 Speed and Late Pace

number. The one-run closer had some traffic issues in the Derby, but it was

obvious that Circular Quay didn't possess his normal finishing kick that

afternoon. I'm looking for a return to form in the Preakness, and there will be

plenty of pace to set up his late rally.

As far as the other contestants, C P WEST (Came Home) and KING OF THE ROXY (Littleexpectations)

are both talented colts who have done their best running at shorter distances,

but it won't come as a major surprise to see one of them be a factor. Eventual

Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Cherokee Run faced a tall task at 1 3/16 miles

in the 1993 Preakness, but he still managed to finish second. C P West has a

better pedigree for the distance and Nick Zito in his corner, but he's dropped

both starts this year, including a well-beaten second as the 9-5 favorite in the

Withers S. (G3) last out. King of the Roxy looks much sharper. Pletcher should

have him cranked up for a top showing, and the Ohio-bred colt has turned in two

nice performances this year, winning the Hutcheson S. (G2) and finishing second

in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). I'd recommend considering him for the bottom of

the exotics.

Flying First Class is better around one turn, faltering badly when stretching

out twice earlier this year. Xchanger has struggled in his last four starts

against graded rivals, and MINT SLEWLEP (Slew City Slew) would be better served

in the Barbaro S. on the undercard.

I'm tabbing Circular Quay for the win. Curlin is also eligible to run a big

race and scares me. After backing Street Sense in the Derby, I'm prepared to let

him beat me in Baltimore. I'll use Circular Quay over Curlin, Street Sense and

King of the Roxy.