Winning Colors J

AMERICAN

GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

Monday's $100,000 Winning Colors S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, a six-furlong

dash for fillies and mares, features the sophomore HOT DIXIE CHICK (Dixie

Union), last year's Spinaway S. (G1) winner, taking on seven older rivals. While

it's typically difficult for younger runners to beat their elders this early in

the season, we like the Steve Asmussen trainee in this spot. She has blazing

early speed, unlike most of her rivals, and if able to shake off some early

challenges she should prove tough to run down. Her three triple-digit BRIS Speed

ratings from last season suggest she is faster than these on her best day, and

we'll cut her some slack for her third in the Eight Belles S. (G3) when

attempting to go 7 1/2 furlongs over a track that wasn't conducive to speed for

much of the day.

EMMY DARLING (Graeme Hall) will likely give Hot Dixie Chick a tussle out of

the gate. An impressive allowance/optional claiming winner in her local debut,

the John Sadler pupil had no trouble trying dirt for the first time and might

have found her calling after running over synthetic and turf in California in

her previous 16 starts. She continues to thrive in the mornings, working five

furlongs in :59 3/5 and six furlongs in 1:12 in her last two preps. Those are

racehorse times, and she'll take some beating under Larry Melancon.

NADESHIKO (Honour and Glory) will likely be overlooked based on her

last three outings, but all of those occurred over turf or synthetic. She is far

better on dirt, and proved as much last season with a record of 3-2-0 in her

last six tries on dirt. The lone disappointment in that sequence was in this

very race 12 months ago, but we feel she can do better against this kind of company than that

sixth-place finish suggests.

DUBAI MAJESTY (Essence of Dubai), the 2009 Winning Colors winner, appears to

have lost a step off her best form from last year. She quit badly after pressing

the pace in the Humana Distaff (G1) last time, which followed three straight

second-place finishes. She can not be discounted as a stalker in a race likely

to have a fast pace, but we'll take a stand against her repeating in this

fixture.

J Z WARRIOR (Harlan's Holiday) was a bit win-shy last year with a 9-1-4-1

mark, and several of those losses came in photo-finishes. She's consistent and

fast enough to contend, but we're not sure if she'll be 100 percent fit after a

layoff of more than seven months. However, we'd upgrade her chances in the event

of a sloppy track. DOUBLE ESPRESSO (Medaglia d'Oro) beat Dubai Majesty by a head

in the Pan Zareta S. earlier this year, then was a non-threatening third in the

Carousel S. and a troubled sixth in the Humana Distaff. She's a two-time winner

over the Churchill strip but probably needs a career-best to pull off the minor

upset.

MINEWANDER (Mineshaft), stakes-placed at Indiana Downs last time, looks too

slow. SECRET GYPSY (Sea of Secrets), who won the Distaff H. (G2) at Aqueduct

last year, is way off form and looks like a pace factor only.