Breeders' Cup Saturday Previews

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

PREVIEWS

Twelve runners will line up for the $5 million Classic, the main event of the

15-race Breeders' Cup showcase, and the top two storylines involve Uncle Mo and

Havre de Grace.

Uncle Mo capped his unbeaten two-year-old season with a dominant victory in

the Juvenile at Churchill Downs 12 months ago, but he's never won past 8 1/2

furlongs and faces a difficult assignment stretching out to 1 1/4 miles with

little foundation. We have much more respect for the chances of Havre de Grace,

who is a nose short of being six-for-six this season, but she might be a little

better at 1 1/8 miles and didn't impress us in her previous start at Churchill

Downs, a third in last year's Ladies' Classic.

We will go in a different direction with a thriving five-year-old from the

barn of unheralded conditioner Scooter Dickey.

1ST -- FLAT OUT is based at Churchill Downs and has been training as well as

any horse on the grounds in advance of his Classic bid. He's proven at the

distance, recording a convincing 2 1/4-length victory in the Grade 1 Jockey Club

Gold Cup last out, and rates top billing.

Sidelined for nearly two years, the stakes winner reappeared at Fair Grounds

last December with an easy score over optional claiming rivals. He wasn't seen

again until late May, rallying strongly for runner-up honors in the Grade 3 Lone

Star Park Handicap (Santa Anita Handicap winner Game on Dude was third), but

Flat Out likely regressed off that huge effort when sixth in the Grade 1 Stephen

Foster Handicap next out. He's been a dynamite performer since the Foster.

Flat Out earned his first graded win with a 6 1/2-length romp in the Grade 2

Suburban Handicap in early July, netting a 111 BRIS Speed rating, and followed

with a good second to a razor-sharp Tizway in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap in

early August. He continued to move forward in the Grade 1 Woodward next out,

overcoming a wide trip and being steadied in midstretch to post a fast-finishing

second, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths, to Havre de Grace. The nine-furlong distance

benefited the filly that afternoon, but Flat Out can turn the tables with an

extra eighth of a mile on Saturday.

The Dickey trainee received his final prep in the October 1 Jockey Club Gold

Cup, making short work of his overmatched rivals that afternoon, and registered

another 111 Speed rating. We don't see any reason why he can't continue to move

forward on Saturday. He's training great, posting a pair of recent bullet works,

including an effortless half-mile in :46 3/5 on Sunday, and jockey Alex Solis

has proven to be the perfect fit since picking up the mount four starts back.

And the pace should set up beautifully for the late runner.

The top three finishers in last year's Classic were all in the back half of

the field after three-quarters of a mile, and Flat Out will be biding his time

until the far turn. He will look to move into contention on the final bend and

can run past his rivals in the stretch.

2ND -- HAVRE DE GRACE is obviously a huge threat. She's dropped both previous

starts at the distance but didn't run poorly either time, finishing only a nose

back of Blind Luck in the July 16 Delaware Handicap most recently. What is

potentially of greater concern is her trip. Havre de Grace likes to race in

striking position, within a few lengths of the pacesetter, and last year's

Ladies' Classic was the last time she found herself well behind the early tempo.

She offered a nice move on the far turn to reach second, but came up flat in the

final furlongs.

Those concerns could prove meaningless because the four-year-old filly is all

class, registering outstanding BRIS Speed ratings of 111, 110 and 109 this

season, and trainer Larry Jones knows how to get her ready for her best. Her 8

1/4-length romp in the Grade 1 Beldame last out was visually impressive and we

expect her to be in the thick of things turning for home on Saturday, looking to

accelerate past the tiring speed.

Havre de Grace will take some beating and we will box her with our top choice

in the exacta.

3RD -- SO YOU THINK, who established himself as an Australian superstar in

2009-10, made a successful transition to the European turf this season for Aidan

O' Brien, posting a pair of Group 1 wins at the 1 1/4-mile distance, and the

10-furlong specialist will be dangerous if he takes to the dirt. That's the

great unknown, but Churchill Downs' main track can play favorably for turf

runners (Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Foster hero Pool Play were both making

their dirt debut) and So You Think owns some tactical speed. In fact, O'Brien

will add blinkers in an apparent attempt to sharpen him up during the early

stages.

Coolmore isn't afraid to point their top horses to the Classic, finishing

second with both Giant's Causeway (2000 at Churchill) and Henrythenavigator

(2008), and will be sending forth a talented runner in So You Think. We expect

to see him stalking the pace in midpack and will use him on the bottom of the

top three.

OTHERS -- DROSSELMEYER was sidelined after a slow win in the Belmont Stakes

last year and didn't show a whole lot in his first five starts this year, but

the Bill Mott-trained colt exits an encouraging second in the Jockey Club Gold

Cup, displaying a nice turn of foot to rally past rivals in the final furlongs.

He equaled a career-best 109 BRIS Speed rating last time and has trained

forwardly at Churchill in advance of the Classic. And Mike Smith, the second

all-time leading rider in Breeders' Cup history with 13 wins, will retake the

mount for the first time since last year's Belmont. We will include him on the

bottom of the exotics at long odds.

RULER ON ICE, this year's Belmont winner, was too far back to make a serious

impact in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby last time but offered a solid run for

second, netting a 121 BRIS Late Pace rating. The Kelly Breen pupil has posted

commendable BRIS numbers in his last four outings and owns a favorable run style

here with his closing kick. At 30-1 on the morning line, Ruler on Ice will offer

plenty of value and has a chance to get involved late for a minor award.

TO HONOR AND SERVE is a very promising prospect for next season, but the

speedy colt must avoid going too fast during the early stages here. Bred to

relish extended distances, he got tired at the end of the nine-furlong

Pennsylvania Derby last out and we're not convinced he's suited for the 1

1/4-mile trip at this stage of his career. But To Honor and Serve has turned

things around since a dismal beginning to his three-year-old campaign, when he

came up with a suspensory injury, recording

Speed ratings of 112 and 107 in his last two wins, and appears to be training

splendidly for the Classic. He's a candidate to hold for part.

Multiple Grade 1 winner GAME ON DUDE and UNCLE MO will likely be first and

second, respectively, during the opening stages and we will take a stand against

the front runners. STAY THIRSTY and RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE haven't run poorly in

their recent starts, but we can't recommend the chances of either one in this

spot. HEADACHE and ICE BOX look overmatched.