Classic Diary
CLASSIC DIARY
OCTOBER 25, 2007
by James Scully
Saturday's $5 million Classic (G1) will feature its deepest collection of
horses in the 24-year history of the Breeders' Cup. I've considered LAWYER RON
(Langfuhr), CURLIN (Smart Strike), ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Distorted Humor) and even
TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) for top honors, but I just keep coming back to the Kentucky
Derby (G1) winner.
1st -- STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) is training great for his career finale. After breezing five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Monmouth Park on Tuesday, with each eighth faster than the previous, he galloped out the next eighth in :11 1/5, easing up through a quarter-mile in :24 1/5. Carl Nafzger has him razor-sharp. The dark bay is two-for-two at 1 1/4 miles, earning a 108 BRIS Speed rating for his Derby score and a 111 for the Travers S. (G1), and he prepped over Polytrack for the Breeders' Cup, finishing second in the September 29 Kentucky Cup Classic (G2). Nafzger used a third in last year's Breeders' Futurity (G1), over the Polytrack at Keeneland, to set-up Street Sense for a whirlwind 10-length romp in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and a second in this year's Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland preceded Derby glory. The trip will be essential for the late-running colt, with the inside possibly the best place to be over a tiring track, and no jockey loves the rail like Calvin Borel. He's kept Street Sense off the rail for the most part since their scintillating Derby move at Churchill Downs, but don't be surprised to see Street Sense saving ground on Saturday, closing powerfully up the inside on the far turn and into the stretch.
Street Sense appears ready for the race of his life. 2nd -- ANY GIVEN SATURDAY ran the best race of his life at Monmouth, easily handling Curlin and Hard Spun (Danzig) when recording a 4 1/2-length decision in the Haskell Invitational S. (G1) in early August, and I'm not counting his workmanlike victory in the Brooklyn S. (G2) last time against him. Five of the last six Classic winners earned a declining Speed rating in their final prep (Any Given Saturday went from a 112 to a 107), and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has worked well since his last start. I'm expecting a career best from the three-year-old colt on Saturday.
The dark bay colt gave Street Sense all he could handle earlier this year when second by a nose in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and Any Given Saturday is a much more formidable individual now. He owns good tactical speed and is athletic enough to overcome trouble. A winner in his last three outings, Any Given Saturday figures to be perfectly placed under Garrett Gomez before offering a serious challenge for the trophy.
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3rd -- CURLIN exits an excellent score in the Jockey Club Gold Cup
(G1) and will relish the 10-furlong distance on Saturday. The Steve Asmussen-trained
colt turned in three spectacular victories before suffering his first career
setback in the Kentucky Derby, but he could be excused for that third-place
effort considering that he just made his career bow in early February. The
massive chestnut rebounded to capture the Preakness (G1) in dramatic fashion,
re-rallying in deep stretch to nip Street Sense in the final strides of the 1
3/16-mile test, and performed admirably when second by a head to Rags to the
Riches (A.P. Indy) in the Belmont (G1) next out.
Considering the grind of the Triple Crown upon such a lightly raced colt,
excuses can be made for Curlin's disappointing third as the 4-5 favorite in the
Haskell. Still, Monmouth Park remains the site of his poorest career effort, and
nobody can say for sure that Curlin will handle the track well on Saturday. I
won't be surprised to see his Haskell effort turn out to be an aberration, but
I'll still pick against the talented colt for the top two spots.
Longshot -- TIAGO is well drawn in post nine with Mike Smith and
listed as a generous 12-1 on the morning line. A winner in his last three starts
in California, the multiple Grade 1 hero exits a superb nose score in the
Goodwood S. (G1) last out that followed a 2 1/2-month freshening. The John
Shirreffs-trained colt has really filled out since his last trip east, a third
in the Belmont, and he's a strong finisher. The improving colt looks like a
major player in the older horse division next season, and he could make an early
statement with a top-class performance on Saturday.
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