Gulfstream Notebook

GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK

JANUARY 9, 2008

by Steve Zacks

Week One in Review

The opening week played somewhat as expected; if you expected the unexpected,

you often got it!

The public frequently has some degree of difficulty evaluating the condition

and ratings of shippers and lightly-raced runners, so confusion often arises;

this has been the case in the early days of the meeting. The condition book

carded a number of races that fitted the local horse community and several of

them were able to win -- some at rather generous prices. The public tends to

undervalue local runners and/or overvalue the higher profile shippers, many of

which need a race or two in Florida to be at their best.

By week end, there were several trainers with a couple of wins, with some of

the usual names and a surprise or two: Bill Mott, Phil Serpe, Bob Dibona, Wayne

Catalano, D. Wayne Lukas, Todd Pletcher and Nick Zito.

The jockey leader list was crowded with Jose Lezcano, Cornelio Velazquez,

Eibar Coa and Elvis Trujillo with five wins each. John Velazquez has four wins

at this early date, and Edgar Prado, Rene Douglas, Kent Desormeaux and Joe Bravo

have all bagged three. Remember that the top riders win most of the races so it

is a list worth following.

The dirt course has played reasonably fair with winners coming from all over

the place -- on the lead, well back, wide or up the inside. It is really great

for the handicapper to know that if he (thinks he) has found the best horse, he

can bet it without worrying about the track taking control of the outcome.

Here's hoping it stays that way.

The turf course, with the rail at 84 feet, has not been kind to early runners

unless they were dominant.

Interesting Stats

The following figures (from 48 races last week) are taken from my personal

data base:

27 winners ran last at Calder, nine made their last start at Aqueduct and

four came from Churchill Downs

17 winners were stabled at Gulfstream, 14 at Calder and 10 at Palm Meadows.

Eight winners raced back within 14 days; 27 had been away 31 days or more,

including one who was absent more than 939 days! Two first-time starters won.

36 winners had worked since their last race: six had worked 6 furlongs or

farther, and 13 had one work of at least five furlongs. Fifteen of the 36 had

worked within five days or less, and another 10 winners worked either six or

seven days prior to the race.

Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as a sign of being in

shape, 33 of the 46 winners qualified as "in shape." Ten had won their last

race.

Surface changes numbered 6.

Class changes numbered 30. Eighteen dropped in class, 12 rose (all 10 of the

last-out winners rose in class!)

Distance changes accounted for 18 winners; 11 shortened in ground and seven

stretched out a furlong or more.

DAILY REVIEW: THURSDAY (1/4)

All in all, opening day may best be classified as a Calder at Gulfstream kind

of day, with mainly claimers on the card.

The track and the turf both played rather fair. The better horses ran a

little faster than the slower ones, which is the mark of a fair track. Horses

were able to win from up front or the back if good enough. The most noticeable

feature to me was that the shortest way home is often the best. Even with the

banking of the turns at Gulfstream, horses (or riders) trying to make moves wide

on the turn were often floating out and failing to sustain their momentum.

Saving ground is always crucial, except on severely negative-biased inside

tracks. There is a point on the turn, which varies from track to track, from

which to launch the move off the inside in search of the proper path. Move too

soon and you go wide and lose momentum; pick the right point and you rocket

forward. The key in the early days is to find out which riders understand that

and attempt to follow that route. If you can identify one or two of the less

famous ones, you will get paid off handsomely during the course of the meeting.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Both surfaces were rated as fair. Dirt races were won from all positions and

inside and out. Turf was fair as the stakes was won by an odds-on front runner,

but it may have taken the best horse to win from the front as most winners were

waiting and pouncing in the stretch. Sitting and saving ground and then finding

room entering the stretch was the best path to victory on the sod.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Jonathan Sheppard usually wins a few at the meeting. He won with a debut

runner and the key clues may have been the presence of Velazquez in the irons

along with some decent breezes over the surface. Terri Pompay ran two, with a

win and a second, and might prove one to watch with at least the next few

starters.

Coa and Lezcano each won a pair of races.

Horses or Races of Interest

While QUITE A BRIDE (Stormy Atlantic) looked powerful in winning the South

Beach S. for Florida-breds, never forget that for an in-shape runner, a drop in

class should lead to a top performance. It did just that here. But also do not

lose sight of the fact that an easy and uncontested pace trip also leads to the

same result. No doubt she earned her win, but what will happen when she faces

better? Time will tell whether she should be placed in the positive or negative

column, but one thing is for sure: if she is stepping up for her next I would

not accept a short price on her, unless she is lone speed traveling on a

front-favoring turf course.

Not too sure that the pricey yearling purchase INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos)

was all that impressive. She won the 4TH race as a first-time starter for the

aforementioned Sheppard with a pair of recent Gulfstream breezes. While the pace

was a little faster and more contested, another sophomore filly, HOLD THAT

PROSPECT (Hold That Tiger), won a similar six-furlong starter allowance going a

fifth of a second faster overall after getting the half six ticks slower.

DAILY REVIEW: FRIDAY (1/5)

While there were still a number of Calder-like races on the card, there were

a couple of maiden special weights and allowances as well as the contentious The

Canadian Turf H. (G3), which was won by HOST (Chi) (Hussonet) in typical fashion

for the turf. Reserved early, Host angled out in the stretch and won with a bold

rush, out-footing Yates Black Cat (Black Minaloushe) and National Captain (SAf)

(Captain Al) to the wire in his second start for new tutor Tom Albertrani. This

running style has produced most of the winners on the grass with the rails in

the 84-foot position. In my opinion, KISS THE KID (Lemon Drop Kid) was wasted

when he was somewhat surprisingly hard-sent to the lead from the inside; the :45

3/5 and 1:09 1/5 fractions while under pressure, and shortening up from 12

furlongs, left him with little for the drive. Kiss the Kid still he ran on well

to be bested by about two lengths and might be one to watch with more judicious

handling next time out.

The prices continue to be generous with only a couple of favorites on the

day. This is expected in the early stages of the meeting. To date, a last race

at Calder is the key source of winners; again not a surprising development.

There have been several surface switches over the first couple of days, but as

of yet no horses have won coming from any of the artificial surfaces.

The prices on some of the winners has been somewhat generous in my opinion,

but then I focus less on Speed figures and place much greater emphasis on

current condition and try to read trainer intent for today. If one studies the

work tab for race 8 winner CLOSE TO THE VEST (Proud Citizen), a second-time

starter from the Serpe barn, one might think that his first start was more of a

learning experience and that they were a little more serious today. While the

colt signaled some signs of ability with a 1:01 breezing from the gate at the

Spa in late August, he was never really asked for anything in the mornings prior

to his first start in late November at Aqueduct. He only beat a couple then at

50-1, but Close to the Vest must have shown somebody something as he earned a

trip to Florida for the winter.

He worked better than usual for himself in his first drill at Palm Meadows, going a half in :48 3/5, and then a week later, and five days before

today's race, breezed five furlongs in 1:02, a meaningful move close to the

race. He wasn't an obvious horse in a wide-open race, but one could easily think

that his first start was a training race and that his connections were serious

today with Castellano up and being in Florida. His 39-1 odds were probably more

than generous under those circumstances.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The dirt track played much faster than on opening day. While many of the

races were of somewhat better quality (and full of unknown quantities with

potential), the fractions and times were noticeably faster. Winners and

on-the-board finishers came from all over: inside and out, and from up close and

well back; it was even possible to press the pace on the outside three or four

wide and draw away on the turn if the horse was good enough. It has been a

pretty fair track in my opinion. Thus far, I can not blame the track for any of

my handicapping errors.

Hard to say if it is entirely the placement of the rail or the race match-ups

themselves, but the typical winner on turf has been reserved early, tried to

save ground and then make headway in the stretch; several have found good paths

up the inside but may not have been good enough. Certainly the path to the

winner's circle has been a strong stretch brush, but then this is the way most

turf races are won. No rush to judgment here, just waiting, watching, learning

and betting the horse I like -- so long as I think he will get a trip and most

importantly, is in top condition!

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

So far all 18 races have been won by different trainers. It will be

interesting to see if past trends continue in the days ahead.

Lezcano is the top jock to date with four wins, two on each surface. He has

been exhibiting patience and looking to save ground. It generally works with

horses that figure to contend. Both winners today were under 10-1, but his two

winners on Thursday were both higher odds. Prado won a couple both up close to

the pace but racing in reserved fashion.

Horses or Races of Interest

See Kiss the Kid above.

DAILY REVIEW: SATURDAY (1/5)

Unfortunately, the rains came which necessitated the races being taken off

the grass; there were numerous scratches from both the turf and dirt races. The

track was once again fair for the most part with runners winning from all over

the place, up front and far back and up the rail and far on the outside. At

least the player can not ask for anything more than that -- though in

contentious races it does put a key on making the right decisions by the player

in order to be successful. At least he or she can use his normal methodologies

to decide amongst the actual contenders; from there we need only decide which

will handle the wet surface.

Of interest to me probably because I focus on preparation and current

condition was the public's handling of the two Lukas runners in the 4TH and 5TH

races. In the 4TH, Lukas sent out LEGACY THIEF (Cat Thief) off a 42-day layoff

following a big win in a maiden race at a mile at Aqueduct on November 24. He

was cutting back to a sprint today as he stepped up into the next logical

condition. The sophomore colt breezed a half-mile in New York 11 days after his

maiden score and then shipped to Gulfstream. Ten days later he worked five

furlongs in :59 3/5, then breezed six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 eight days later. His

final prep was a five-eighths move nine days later and just four days before

today's race in :59 4/5. Legacy Thief overpowered his opposition in what may

have been the day's best performance.

In the 5TH race, Lukas sent out the sophomore filly, PRAIRIE MELODY

(Concorde's Tune), dropping her in for $32K maiden claiming for the first time

in her sixth career start. She had last raced 1 1/16 miles at Churchill on

November 24, the same day Legacy Thief was winning by seven at the Big A. The

filly was up with the pace for six furlongs in her first dirt race; she was

wearing blinkers for the second time and was switching to Velasquez, who had

just won with Legacy Thief. However, she had but one work, a 1:00 1/5 on the

December 26, 32 days after her last race and 10 before today's event. She was

sent off at 8-5 and after running for a half, backed up to beat just one other

filly. Four of her first five starts had come on grass and this race was

scheduled for the lawn. Did she deserve to be the favorite in light of the

preparation?

While we can often justify our winners and losers for a variety of reasons,

one can, by carefully examining the pre-race preparation, make the case for

soundness, intent and readiness between these two runners. And of course, horses

do win races without workouts as QUICK GETAWAY (Weekend Cruise) showed in the

day's opener (42 days and no recorded works). By the way, Prairie Melody's race

was won by a filly returning in 15 days with a breeze five days prior!

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The dirt was sloppy and fair. Post 3 produced two winners and post 4 four

winners. Many of the front runners were in control of slow paces, making their

tasks simpler and reducing any notion of the track favoring speed. Legacy Thief

was the only runner to battle up front on a fast pace and stay the way while

widening in the stretch. There was no turf racing.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Mott was the first trainer to win his second race of the meeting.

Ten different riders won races on the Saturday card. Lezcano added another to

remain atop the standings with five, and Prado added one to total three for the

young meeting.

Horses or Races of Interest

Legacy Thief won battling outside on a fast pace and then drawing away in the

stretch. Not that there were any stars in the Mr. Prospector H. (G3) won by

NOONMARK (Unbridled Song) with an inside stalking trip, but the sophomore set a

faster pace than the stakes went in and also went a hundredth of a second faster

three races earlier. He deserves the day's top billing -- if you credit horses

for their off-track performances.

SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz) was somewhat impressive in his professional approach

to winning the Hutcheson S. (G2). Unlike many others in the race, he had winning

experience at the distance. He was reserved inside going down the backstretch

and for a while it looked uncertain as to just how comfortable he may have been.

However, as they were approaching the turn, he started to pick things up and

moved to the leaders outside on the turn. The Lukas-trained Silver Edition

(Silver Deputy) was game and determined in the stretch drive, but he was unable

to match strides with the winner as they completed the last eighth in a solid 13

1/5 after contesting honest early fractions. Both were overlooked by the betting

public and may be worthy of a good look next time out. Of course there is always

greater wager value in lesser-known connections, but conditioner Bennie Stutts

usually runs his horses where they can win. We can only imagine that a few of

the Florida regulars were licking their chops when they saw 10-1 in the morning

line and 9-1 on the tote nearing post time. Solid race horse preparation too --

a slow five-furlong breeze followed by a mile drill, six furlongs in 1:12 and

five panels in 1:01 seven days out -- making for a fit and ready runner, that

did not disappoint!

DAILY REVIEW: SUNDAY (1/6)

A more or less formful day with a couple of prices -- another from the Serpe

shedrow -- and a possibly overlooked local winner of a maiden claimer.

Last year, CHATAIN (Forest Wildcat) won the Hal's Hope H. (G3) in 1:33 4/5;

this year it went in 1:36 1/5. It was not a particularly high quality field this

year and the pace was never hot, so we all will have to wait to see just how

some of the others run back. Miner's Lamp (Seeking the Gold) was second at 62-1,

and the five-year-old was making his stakes debut.

The Sabin H. (G3) was a very contentious affair with the top three all

exiting the Top Flight H. (G2) in New York; the race featured a very exciting

stretch drive with a dead-heat finish between LADY MARLBORO (Smoke Glacken) and

GOLDEN VELVET (Seeking the Gold). Pletcher's runner, the favored Lady Sermon

(Pulpit) had no excuses whatsoever; she was able to set a moderate and

un-pressured pace and had no answers when asked the question. She had bested the

top two last time.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The drying out dirt track was never overly fast as it was rated good for

races 1 and 3 and then fast for the rest of the dirt races.

The turf course, which was rated as yielding for most races but with the

rails still out 84 feet, failed to treat the front runners kindly. Wide moves on

the turn seemed to work though the inside was not bad. There were no quality

races on the turf this day. What never fails to amaze is why some riders hustle

their horses hard early when only one has managed to win on the front end all

week. Prepping for next time or...?

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Serpe lit up the tote board again with his second win, and Zito notched his

second victory of the meet with a first-time starter in the day's opener. Along

with Mott, they are the two-time winners atop the standings.

Coa won three on the day to move in to the top spot with Lezcano. Velasquez

won a couple. A jockey change to a top rider is always a factor to be looked at.

Some Florida-based trainers often go for an outside rider when they think they

have one ready to win. Keep your eyes open for this maneuver.

DAILY REVIEW: MONDAY (1/7)

Not a particularly exciting card today with only one allowance race.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The two later turf races were taken off. The two earlier turf races were won

by a stalking favorite (Pletcher and Velazquez in a maiden special weight) and

with a late closer in a cheap conditioned claimer.

For the most part, being close to the pace was the best approach on the dirt

today. However, none of the races were run in particularly fast times and the

paces were not particularly fast either, which played into the hands of the

speedier types.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Pletcher won his first two races of the meeting and even paid $10 with a

conditioned claimer. Johnny V rode both of those. Trujillo won a trio on the day

to tie for the top spot, and Velasquez won his fifth to join the pinnacle group.

Dibona also won a pair. Lukas and Catalano notched their second victory of the

meeting.

One of the things you can pay attention to is to riders who seem to be riding

well and getting close with horses that are outrunning their odds. Douglas has

three wins but has been close with others at long prices. Lezcano, who is atop

the leader board from limited mounts, can be seen looking for the inside path --

when these guys get the live mounts they will not likely disappoint. Watching

for these and others could pay off in the long run.

Horses or Races of Interest

QUIP (Pure Prize) was sent out by Kiaran McLaughlin for his first North

American start in the 8TH race, a preliminary allowance. He broke a bit slowly

and then was asked to do what no horse should be asked to do -- go eight or 10

wide coming off the turn. He did show a good internal move and with better

handling might be one to reckon with. He gave the impression that he could run.

I won't blame the track or the slow pace, but I do think he could have made it

much more of a contest if he had received better handling! Message to Kiaran:

"Bring Alan (Garcia) to Florida!"