Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 4, 2006

by Dick Powell

I loved BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) in the Preakness S. (G1) at near 13-1 odds

despite him making his two-turn debut in a classic race. Last Saturday, I went

against him at 1-2 odds in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. He was returning from

a 70-day layoff and a career-best BRIS Speed figure of 114 in his last start so

1-2 did not look too appealing. After watching the race, maybe it was an

overlay.

To show you how nutty Saratoga weather is, a sudden thunderstorm hit the area

before the 4TH race and forced the 5TH and 10TH races off the turf and onto a

very sloppy main track. Going home after the races, I drove down Route 9 back

toward exit 13 of the Northway, where I turn off before getting on the highway.

It's about three miles from the track and there was not a drop of rain on the

ground. I got home, which is about eight miles farther west, and it had not

rained there either. But the track got soaked and Bernardini had another

negative to overcome while racing over a wet track for the first time.

Right from the start, Javier Castellano was determined to make the lead but

not go to the rail. He broke Bernardini sharply and out-sprinted Minister's Bid

(Deputy Minister) and Sunriver (Saint Ballado) to the lead and kept his mount at

least three paths off the rail. The Saratoga rail path on the main track has not

been kind for most of the meet, and Castellano used Bernardini's natural speed to

gain the advantage. From there, it was a walk in the park.

Very reminiscent of former Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Bernardini has a

sensational cruising speed. He runs with his head a bit higher than most of A.P.

Indy's offspring, but he just gets into a rhythm and wears down the field. Over

the sloppy track and well off the rail, he covered six furlongs in 1:11.33 and

cruised to the top of the stretch in complete control. As the field turned for

home, Castellano did everything he could to avoid giving him a signal to take

off but still, Bernardini was turning the Jim Dandy into a runaway, drawing off

to win by nine lengths. To say Castellano sat chilly through the stretch does

not give visual justice to how little he moved in the saddle.

Bernardini's final time for the nine furlongs was 1:50.50 and he earned a 111

BRIS Speed figure. Even after the race, he looked great galloping out another

furlong and should be ready for the Travers S. (G1) in four weeks.

In the race before the Jim Dandy, three horses hit the wire together in the

Diana H. (G1) with ANGARA (GB) (Alzao) getting the nod by a head over Sweet

Talker (Stormin Fever), who, in turn, was a nose up on Argentina (Ire) (Sadler's

Wells). Bill Mott was on the fence in deciding whether to run Angara in the

Diana or wait a few weeks for the Beverly D. S. (G1) at Arlington, but the sudden

thunderstorm earlier in the day made up his mind as the turf was listed as

"yielding" and Angara was right at home.

Plus, it was July 29 and Bill Mott can nearly always be counted on for a win

on his birthday.

How good is CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch)? Teuflesberg (Johannesburg) was

fourth behind him in the Bashford Manor S. (G3) and then came back to just miss

winning the Sanford S. (G2) when he was run down in the final yards by SCAT

DADDY (Johannesburg), who barely won at 3-10 odds.

On Saturday, Wayne Lukas sent out PEGASUS WIND (Fusaichi Pegasus), fifth in

the Bashford Manor, against a strong field of maidens going six furlongs. The

bay colt broke on top and, despite being used hard while down on the inside,

drew off to an easy seven-length win in the good time of 1:10.87. Lukas had

enough confidence in him to debut him in a stakes, so Pegasus Wind should come

right back against stakes horses next time out. The question is will he avoid

Circular Quay?

*****

I think being a steward is a tough job. Like any umpire or referee, you are

going to make judgment calls that please some and upset others. All we ask for

is consistency.

Years ago, a foul was a foul. Now many racing jurisdictions give the stewards

discretion on whether or not there was a foul and then, whether it affected the

outcome of the race. In California, they even give their stewards the discretion

to determine whether contact was deliberate and/or significant to the outcome of

the race.

Big mistake.

In Sunday's Bing Crosby H. (G1) at Del Mar, the longest shot on the board was

PURE AS GOLD (Stolen Gold), a 23-1 Washington-bred that was claimed by Jack

Carava last out for $100,000 from Doug O'Neill. A sprinter who usually comes

from off the pace, new rider Jon Court was forced to use him from post 1 and

he was able to keep up early and have the lead after a half in :44.18 over a

track that was probably a tick slow.

Bordonaro (Memo [Chi]), who is usually up near the lead but wound up stalking

three wide, made a big run in the stretch and the 4-5 favorite looked like he

would get the lead with a furlong to go. Up until then it was a tough trip for

the chestnut gelding, who had won his last four stakes races in a row. Premium

Saltine (Salt Lake) broke out at the start and carried Bordonaro out and then,

while Pure as Gold was getting through on the inside, he had to go around.

Still, Bordonaro was running strong for Alex Solis, and he pulled up to Pure

as Gold's flank. Just then he veered out suddenly, his head went up in the air

and he dropped back before mounting one final rally that fell a half-length

short. Pure as Gold was the winner covering the six furlongs in 1:08.79 and

earning a BRIS speed figure of 110 - a huge leap from his prior best of 102.

Quickly Alex Solis filed a claim of foul against Jon Court aboard the winner,

Pure as Gold. Solis claimed, and most of those watching believed, that Court struck Bordonaro across the face with his whip at the eighth pole, and the replay seemed

to confirm it.

After a long wait, the stewards left Pure as Gold's number up and disallowed

Solis' claim of foul. It was similar to pro football where the replay does not

provide enough conclusive evidence to change the ruling. The comment line in the

chart said that Bordonaro "appeared to be struck by the whip."

Steward George Slender, speaking on behalf of the three stewards, said "In

our opinion, the tapes could not verify that the horse was actually hit. In

order to disqualify a horse, you better be darn sure you're correct."

So far so good, but it is the next statement by Slender that exposes why

discretion is not the better part of valor. "We spoke to both jockeys, and if

there was contact, it wasn't willful." So now the stewards at Del Mar decide

intent as well as fouls. What's next, motivation?

We have seen some flagrant uses of the whip go unpunished. Eddie

Delahoussaye, aboard Gato del Sol in the 1982 Kentucky Derby (G1), clearly

struck Reinvested across the head in deep stretch. In the 1997 Derby, Gary

Stevens rode Silver Charm the last 100 yards of the race leaning way right and

whipping out to the outside, intimidating Captain Bodgit. Most fouls in the

Derby are not even called, but the foul in the Bing Crosby seemed pretty obvious

regardless of whether or not Court acted willfully.