Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 22, 2007

by Dick Powell

Yes, it would be nice if we had a Triple Crown winner. It's hard to believe

that the last one was Affirmed in 1978. And, yes, it would be

nice if we could have a long-lasting rivalry that the general public could get

into or have horses that become household names and race to at least the end of

the four-year-old season.

But, it would also be nice if we covered racing 12 months a year and taught

the general public how exciting it is when a new star appears upon the scene.

I follow New York racing more than any other circuit and there has been a

severe shortage of juvenile races run this year. Usually, there would be a race

for two-year-olds each week for fillies and colts. This year, they have been few

and far between.

Thus, a horse like THE ROUNDHOUSE (Fusaichi Pegasus) wound up making his

career debut at Monmouth Park for Todd Pletcher. Out of the Grade 1

stakes-winning and producing dam Circle of Life (Belong to Me), The Roundhouse

is a half-brother to Hopeful (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch).

And just like Circular Quay, who rallied from far back to break his maiden

first time out last year at Churchill, The Roundhouse was far back after

breaking behind the field in his five-furlong debut. The chart of the race has

him only six lengths behind with a quarter-mile to run, but the replay shows

that he was at least 10 lengths behind, if not more.

Chris DeCarlo was asking him for run and not getting any positive response.

As the field of seven turned for home, The Roundhouse had only one horse beat

and with a furlong to go he was out of camera range. But, somehow, he found his

best stride and closed with a furious rush. He swooped by the four horses in

front of him with a hundred yards to go and drew off to an amazing 1 1/2-length

win. And this over a main track at Monmouth that is notorious for favoring

front runners. If you have the ability to go back and watch the 6TH race from

Monmouth Park on June 15, please check it out.

The Roundhouse's final time for five furlongs was :58.42 off a half in :46.13.

He had to have run his last furlong in about 11 seconds. Racing in the

silks of Michael Tabor, the same colors we saw win the Belmont S. (G1) with Rags

to Riches (A.P. Indy), The Roundhouse will hopefully be up here for the Saratoga

meet and point for the Hopeful like his half-brother did. Maybe the next major

horse from the Coolmore gang will be named The Rich Get Richer.

What's frustrating is that debut winners like The Roundhouse should be

garnering headlines in our sport. Other sports do not have to have household

names to gain media exposure. Fans sit around and watch the drafts of many

professional sport leagues without knowing much about the players. We talk very

little about our "rookies" and their pedigrees. If we did, at least when horses

retire lightly-raced and prematurely, we could look forward to their offspring

selling at auction and await their first foals to race.

Most of this is due to the fact that the media covers the Triple Crown,

Breeders' Cup and a few other big races and very little else. Press boxes are

nearly empty during the week, and many future stars and their stories fall

through the cracks. Potential racing fans are not reading about horses like The

Roundhouse and they, and racing, are missing out.

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Lost in the coverage of the Belmont was the issue of the wind

which was blowing quite hard from right to left. It meant that in long sprint

races, the wind was aiding the horses more than it was hurting them.

It also meant that Rags to Riches' final quarter mile of :23.83 was back into

the wind and even better than first thought. And, the first half of the race --

1:15.32 -- was even slower than it looked since they went into a headwind out of

the gate, but that's when the field has the most energy so the headwind takes

less of a toll.

I read one account that said that the wind in the Belmont was irrelevant since it was a complete, two-turn race and the effect of the wind was

neutralized. It's true that during the course of a two-turn race the

headwind becomes a tailwind. But, the effect of the wind is a negative since it

takes far more energy to run through it than it is a positive when it is at your

back.

In Track and Field, you can kiss goodbye any chance at a world record in the 400

meters or 400 meter hurdles -- both run at one, complete lap -- if it's a windy

day. Fast times are generated on calm days or when a one-directional wind aids a

one-directional race. If it aids the race too much -- a favoring wind faster than

2 meters per hour -- then a world record is denied and receives the notation of

"wind aided."

I've written this before and still wish that racing could provide wind speed,

direction, a diagram of the track which shows NSEW directions and temperature

for each race. Sometimes a horse that might not be running as fast as the others

in the race might have had the misfortune of racing during adverse weather

conditions compared to the others in the race.

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I love international racing and this week's races from Royal Ascot are as

good as it gets. Group 1 races are run each day and the supporting cards have

been terrific. Owners and trainers point their horses for Royal Ascot so you can

expect that each runner has been trained for a peak effort.

However, when you read the past performances for Royal Ascot, there is not

the amount of handicapping information that we are used to in America. Yet,

punters over there bet vast amounts of money without the data that we demand

before we bet.

Thus, the question, "How would you handicap a race without speed or

performance figures?" In Europe, and the rest of the world, horseplayers rely on

two main factors -- company and the going.

Company is who you have been running against, how did they do coming into the

race that you are handicapping and how did the horses you have been running

against compete in later races? It's critical to know who you've been running

around with, how they did before the race and how they did after the race.

Follow international races and you will most likely read about a race's "form

holding up." This means that the horses in the race have come back to run well.

Last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) is a perfect example of a race whose

form held up.

The other main factor is the going, or the condition of the turf course. You

not only want to know the form of the horse and who he/she had been running

against but what was the track condition of those races? England has been in a

drought for months and Royal Ascot has been run on ground listed as "good to

firm." In American parlance, that is turf that we would list as "firm." In the

first two days of racing, four course records have been set and some quality

horses have turned in explicably-poor efforts due to the firm going.

Horses that have run great at Ascot might have benefited from the firm ground

and might not respond as well over ground with some give to it and horses that

ran poorly might bounce back at long odds when they can get on softer ground.

While we spend way too much time on quantitative analysis of speed and

performance figures and their relationships to form, the rest of the world

spends time on a qualitative analysis of subjective factors like company and

going. I'm not saying which one is best, but I will tell you that the rest of the

world bets far more money, per capita, than we do with a lot less information.