Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 9, 2007

by Dick Powell

Any time you schedule six stakes races on a single card you are taking a big

risk. Gulfstream Park has grouped their stakes races into major event days, and

last Saturday was the first one highlighted by the Donn H. (G1).

Only 45 horses loaded into the starting gate for the six graded stakes races,

but what they might have lacked in quantity they more than made up for in

quality.

The first graded stakes of the day was the Deputy Minister H. (G3), a 6

1/2-furlong sprint on the main track for older horses. Last year, KEYED ENTRY (Honour

and Glory) upset First Samurai on a sloppy track in the Hutcheson S. (G2) on Donn Day. This year, he was making his seasonal debut and was sent off as the

second choice at 19-10 behind Sir Greeley (Mr. Greeley), who was the favorite at

17-10.

John Velazquez gunned Keyed Entry to the front from his inside post position

and rationed out his speed to maintain his lead around the turn. Kelly's Landing

(Patton) gave chase through a half in :44.53, but Keyed Entry dominated in the

run through the stretch while drawing off to a five-length win over Sir Greeley.

The final time of 1:15.72 was a bit disappointing as the winner only earned a

102 BRIS Speed figure.

The next graded stakes was the Swale S. (G2) for three-year-olds sprinting 6

1/2 furlongs. ADORE THE GOLD (Formal Gold) and Cornelio Velasquez must have

taken notes during the Deputy Minister, and they gunned to the front from post

2. Training bullets here for Michael Gorham, he never really showed that kind of

gate speed before, but they were taking no chances of getting shuffled back on

the inside.

Forefathers (Gone West) pressed the pace down the backside, and favored

Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) joined the fray three wide into the turn. Adore

the Gold was under heavy pressure but was able to keep his head in front. In the

lane, Cornelio kept busy aboard him, Cowtown Cat faded, and Forefathers was not

able to make up any ground. Adore the Gold won it by three quarters of a length

over Forefathers and covered the distance in 1:15.86. Just like Keyed Entry in

the Deputy Minister, he earned a disappointing 101 Speed figure.

For a seasonal debut, this was not the kind of performance his owner/breeder

John D. Murphy Sr. was looking for. Yes, it gets him his first graded stakes

win, but he had to empty out in the stretch. Adore the Gold showed an ability to

rate in some of his prior races, but he didn't give any indication here that he

would be able to stretch out to two turns any time soon.

The Canadian Turf H. (G3) was next up, and the betting public went crazy over

recently crowned turf champion Miesque's Approval (Miesque's Son), sending him

off as the overbet 4-5 favorite. With the scratch of Better Than Bonds (Sweetsouthernsaint),

it looked like there were only two speed horses in the field.

GIANT WRECKER (Giant's Causeway) was breaking from post 2 with Javier

Castellano, and Jet Propulsion (Double Honor) would try to press him from post 4

with Elvis Trujillo. The early pace looked like it would set it up for a closer,

especially with the rail out at 72 feet on the turf course.

Giant Wrecker has shown flashes of living up to a sensational pedigree, but

at the age of five, his last start was awful. In the Ft. Lauderdale S. here last

month, he was rank early and fought Eddie Castro every step of the way before

fading to ninth. He usually races in midpack, but on Saturday he broke well

with Castellano, who wisely did not fight him.

Despite setting a pressured pace from Jet Propulsion with the first six

furlongs covered in 1:10.16, Giant Wrecker kept pouring it on and opened up a

clear lead with a furlong to run. Miesque's Approval was not making up ground,

and the only danger was coming from Host (Chi) (Hussonet), who was making his

first start in 315 days and turning back in distance. After a mile in 1:33.77,

Giant Wrecker kept pouring it on, running his final sixteenth of a mile in 5.93

seconds.

Host's late charge fell a head short, and Giant Wrecker was finally a graded

stakes winner for owner/breeder Edward P. Evans at the age of five.

One of the keys to Giant Wrecker's win was the decision by trainer Mark

Hennig to leave him at Gulfstream to train after his poor effort last out.

Shipping in from Payson Park unglued him last time, and he was able to

settle better on Saturday. Next time he runs, don't bet on him until you see how he's

behaving in the post parade and warm-up before the race.

A lot of us have been waiting for the seasonal debut of NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ

(Albert the Great) after he dominated the Remsen S. (G2) last year going nine

furlongs. One of the best maiden winners of the year, he showed grit when second

in the Champagne S. (G1) and then capped off his juvenile season with the Remsen

win after trainer Barclay Tagg wisely passed up the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).

In Saturday's Holy Bull S. (G3) run at a one-turn mile, Nobiz Like Shobiz set

a very slow early pace down the backstretch while on the outside as the 7-10

favorite. Cornelio Velasquez was able to get him to relax and cruise along. John

Velazquez was trying to keep up with Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) along the inside

but was expending far more energy even though he was on the best part of the

track.

Velasquez turned up the heat on the far turn with a third quarter in :23.74

and opened up a clear lead in the stretch. He still runs greenly in the lane,

but it doesn't look like he's doing it because he's tired -- he's just looking

around. Nobiz Like Shobiz won by 1 1/2 lengths over Drums of Thunder (Concerto),

who beat out Scat Daddy for the place. The final time of 1:35.47 was good, as

was his Speed figure of 103, especially considering how slow the early pace was.

Nobiz Like Shobiz has already proven himself at two turns, and with

Saturday's win he gives trainer Barclay Tagg many options on how to make the

first Saturday in May. He could stay at Gulfstream for the Fountain of Youth S.

(G2) and Florida Derby (G1) or go to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby

(G2) for one of the races. Normally, you would think that staying at home would

be the wise thing to do, but Gulfstream's main track has a history of hardening

up during the racing season and it might take too big a physical toll on him.

In addition to Giant Wrecker, Giant's Causeway sired another graded stakes

winner on the card. In the Suwannee River H. (G3), NAISSANCE ROYALE (Ire)

(Giant's Causeway) got up in the final strides and ran down a very game J'ray

(Distant View) to win going away by a neck. The 11-10 favorite, ridden by Edgar

Prado, saved ground early and swung out late to get up in time for her third

graded stakes victory.

Many sires have multiple graded stakes winners on a given Saturday of racing,

but what makes Giant's Causeway so impressive was that both winners were age

five. It's one thing to throw precocious juveniles that win graded stakes that

are really nothing more than first-level allowance races. It's another to sire

two five-year-old graded stakes winners that are sound and still competing at a

high level.

The feature race of the day was the Donn, which attracted newly crowned Horse

of the Year INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes), who was making his first start since

beating Bernardini in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). In only four North

American starts last year, he won four Grade 1 stakes. Except for a seven-length

defeat by DISCREET CAT (Forestry) in Dubai in the 2006 U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2),

Invasor would be undefeated in 10 starts going into the Donn.

On Saturday, he drew post 1 and toted the high weight of 123 pounds. Well

back early, Fernando Jara moved him up on the inside going into the far turn and

waited for room to develop. When it didn't, Jara looked to the outside, but the

field bunched up and there was nowhere to go.

Full of run, Invasor clipped heels with Barcola (Old Trieste) nearing the top

of the stretch and Jara had to slam on the brakes. With the field in a full

drive, Jara had to wait until a hole opened up on the inside, and when it did,

the race was over. Invasor shot through and drew off to a two-length win in the

fast time of 1:48.43.

When horses are stopped cold and get up to win, they usually do it in the

final strides. This race was over with a sixteenth of a mile to go as Invasor

exploded to an easy win. Yes, it was dangerous of Jara to put him in the

position he wound up in, but when your horse can accelerate like Invasor, does

it really matter?

Invasor now goes back to Dubai to face Discreet Cat in the Dubai

World Cup (UAE-G1) on March 31. He showed in the Breeders' Cup Classic that he

can run well fresh and loves 10 furlongs. Game and versatile, Invasor has a big

year ahead of him.

Earlier on the Donn card, Helen Pitts unveiled CURLIN (Smart Strike), a

first-time starter who was facing a very strong field of maidens going seven

furlongs. From an inside post, he broke well, held the lead going into the turn,

opened up a clear advantage midway around it, then broke the race wide open in

the stretch despite drifting out.

Rafael Bejarano was able to straighten him out nearing the wire and despite

his shenanigans, he won by 12 3/4 lengths in the very good time of 1:22.25.

Fellow first-time starter Winstrella (Gone West) was a good second and shouldn't

be a maiden much longer.

On Sunday, Pitts won with another first-time starter when SILVERINYOURPOCKET

(Silver Deputy) got up in the final strides to break her maiden by a half-length

with Bejarano aboard again.

Out at Santa Anita on Saturday, RAVEL (Fusaichi Pegasus) burst onto the

Triple Crown scene with a win in the Sham S. (G3). Second in his career debut at

Keeneland and a maiden winner at Hollywood Park last out, not only was this his

stakes debut, but his first start on dirt after competing on synthetic surfaces.

The slight 2-1 favorite in the Sham was Liquidity (Tiznow), who just missed

in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last out. Ravel was the second betting choice at

26-10.

At the start, Song of Navarone (Sultry Song) went to the front, and Corey

Nakatani set up shop first over in a perfect stalking position aboard Liquidity.

Ravel was sitting in the pocket in fourth with Garrett Gomez, and in the run

down the backstretch, his head was bobbing up a down in a sign that he was

uncomfortable. With a half run in only :48.08, the slow pace made things tighter

than normal, and Ravel was getting real dirt kicked in his face for the first

time.

Around the far turn, Liquidity made his move, and Gomez swung Ravel off the

rail to go up three wide after him. They turned for home with Liquidity clinging

to a short lead, but Ravel wore him down before pulling away late to a

one-length victory. The final time of 1:48.91 was solid, and Ravel showed he can

run on the inside in traffic, get dirt kicked in his face and extend his stride

when asked.

Costing $950,000 as a yearling, Ravel is one of the new breed of horses that

will stable most of their career at tracks with synthetic surfaces and only race

on dirt when they have to.