Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 16, 2005

by Dick Powell

I love the Aqueduct inner dirt track. The frigid home of New York racing from

the beginning of December through the end of March can be a winter wonderland

for handicappers that take the plunge and follow it closely each year.

Just like Saratoga, some stables actually point for the inner dirt track

meet. Knowing that stalls will be available and purses are maintained at a high

level, sharp outfits plan ahead and look to race in New York when all the major

stables have flown south for warmer weather.

Just like Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott can be expected to be at the top of

trainer standings at Saratoga, guys like Mike Hushion, Gary Contessa and Bruce

Levine can always be counted on to make many visits to Aqueduct winner's circle,

where everyone is anxious to get their picture taken and find a place to warm

up.

The dominant winning profile for the Aqueduct inner dirt track is inside

speed. Last year, according to the BRIS Track Bias Stats that can be found at the

end of each race's Ultimate Past Performances, there were 325 races run at the

distance of six furlongs and the speed bias was 74 percent. An amazing 43

percent of the six-furlong races went gate to wire, and inside posts were the

preferred place to break from.

In two-turn races, front-end speed did almost as well. At the distance of a

mile and 70 yards, the speed bias was 63 percent, and 26 percent of the 73

winners went gate to wire. At the commonly-run distance of 1 1/16 miles, the

speed bias was 57 percent, and 28 percent of the 141 winners went gate to wire.

For both two-turn distances, inside posts were preferable.

However, the winter weather at Aqueduct makes for some dramatic changes from

day to day. When the temperature is way below freezing, the track superintendent

cannot put water down on the track. Even though the Aqueduct inner dirt track

has chemicals in it to prevent it from freezing, adding water like in a normal

maintenance cycle is not done. Thus, when Mother Nature does not add water, the

inner dirt track dries out during stretches of sub-freezing weather.

If you pay attention, you will find stretches of cold, sunny days with no

snow or rain that will result in a track that gets very cuppy by the end of the

afternoon. Final

times slow down dramatically and wide closers suddenly think that they are back

at Belmont. I have found that during these periods, horses who come from behind

do better in sprints than they do going two turns. Speed and a ground-saving

trip with a field that gets spread out on the first turn is always tough to beat

going two turns, regardless.

After a stretch of cold, sunny weather, a rain storm could come through New

York and suddenly the inner dirt track will be very wet and usually sealed.

Final times will be faster than normal and speed horses will dominate.

The great thing is that you don't have to worry about how the track super is

grooming the track. The subtleties of track maintenance involving how much

moisture is being added to the track are no longer factors. Mother Nature is the

track super and we can visually see the condition of the track. All you have to

do is pay attention.

*****

Because the inner dirt track is different from any others on the NYRA circuit

with its chemical composition, the horse for course angle becomes more important

than usual. The BRIS career box says "AQU," but it really is for the inner dirt

track this time of year and it's worth noting how the horses in each day's races

have competed here compared to their overall record.

Part of the horse for course angle comes from the fact that some of the

horses train at Aqueduct and seem to have an advantage when the racing shifts

here. Most horses in New York, even in the winter, stable at Belmont, but the

three-to-four hundred stabled at Aqueduct seem to have an advantage this

time of year. Rick Violette, Rick Dutrow and Contessa have large stables at

Aqueduct and are always major factors in the winter here. Their horses do not

have to ship cross town like many others, and being at Aqueduct makes the

five-hour detention barn scenario a little bit easier.

New York-breds are a daily staple of the Aqueduct inner dirt track diet and

it pays to get familiar with the sires and pedigrees of state-breds. Once

again, BRIS Sire Stats are invaluable tools for the handicapper who is not that

familiar with the sires in New York.

The final factor on why the inner dirt track is worth following and playing

is the presence of many apprentice riders. "Bug boys" are very popular in the

winter, with many of the big name riders going south. They get live mounts and

with their apprentice allowance, they can have a real advantage going two turns.

If you can catch one at the start of a hot streak, it can be very profitable. A

kid gets hot and the live mounts come to him.

I like to see apprentice riders that have mounts with good stables. It's a

sign of confidence that the rider is competent and they have the right work

ethic by showing up in the morning to work horses for that outfit.

This year's crop of apprentice riders at Aqueduct includes Randall Toups,

Channing Hill and Kyle Kaenel. Toups is off to a slow start (2 for 32) for the

first two weeks, but anyone who looks that good in the saddle can't be far away

from a hot streak and he'll be getting seven pounds for a while. Hill has the

most experience and Kaenel strikes me as a talented young rider who might be

looking for another occupation five or 10 years from now since he is so big. But

for now, weight off is a big attraction for their agents to sell.