Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

DECEMBER 15, 2005

Pedigree potential and patient trainers

by Tim Holland

When Pleasant Home (Seeking the Gold) won this year's Breeders' Cup Distaff

(G1), it was a reminder that the ability to spot improving horses is one of the

most valuable assets a horseplayer can own. By researching bloodlines,

handicappers are able to speculate as to how much improvement, if any, a horse

may still be capable of showing. While many sharp pedigree followers are able to

recognize this "Pedigree Potential" with just a quick glance, an effective and

easy to use tool is the Bloodstock Research American Produce Records, or APR, on

CD-ROM.

Many top class trainers, such as Bobby Frankel, Neil Drysdale and Richard

Mandella, have an uncanny ability to successfully point horses for major races,

maybe months down the road. They know the potential of their runners and are

able to have them peak at exactly the right time. Shug McGaughey is another with

this talent and his handling of Pleasant Home is a good example. Being a full

sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Country Hideaway, and from a hugely successful

family including champions Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom [Fr]), Dayjur (Danzig) and

Gold Beauty (Mr. Prospector), Pleasant Home owned the potential, pedigree wise,

to be the best in the nation.

Freshened after a disappointing effort over an off track in the spring at

Pimlico, the four-year-old miss was prepped for her fall races with two sprints,

the latter one being a fast-closing runner-up finish behind the in-form Happy

Ticket (Anet) in the Ballerina S. (G1). Following her next race, a good second in the Spinster S. (G1) at Keeneland, Pleasant Home drew off to an easy victory in the Distaff at odds of

more than 30-1. McGaughey had known the ability of his filly, it was just a

matter of bringing it all out at the right time.

Unfortunately, it is rare that the pedigree handicapper is able to find a $60

winner coming from a high profile barn and more often one has to look a little

deeper to find value. On Sunday, a good score could have been attained by

spending 10 minutes or so with the APR CD looking a little deeper into the

pedigrees of the field for the Damon Runyon S. at Aqueduct.

Run at 1 1/16 miles and restricted to New York-bred two-year-old

colts, the stakes drew a competitive cast of 11. While a few competitors owned some

"black-type" in their immediate family, including Benlayla, an Aptitude colt out

of the Grade 3-winning Pentatonic (Cure the Blues), none had a pedigree as

eye-catching as Platinum Couple. Without even looking far, a tip as to the

quality of his background should have been that he is by the successful

Kentucky-based stallion Tale of the Cat who, at $65,000, easily commanded the

highest stud fee of any of the sires of runners in this race. Closer inspection

revealed that he is a half-brother to the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Dance

Away Capote (Capote) and, more importantly, that his mother is a half-sister to

the 1998 Horse of the Year and three-time champion Skip Away.

For handicappers that use pedigrees and trainer angles as their main focus,

rather than times and speed figures, it is important to pay attention to the

smaller details. Indeed, additional research found that the trainer Joseph

Lostritto and owners Tri-Star Stables purchased the mare, Ingot's Dance Away,

carrying Platinum Couple for $60,000 at the 2002 Keeneland November Sale. By

foaling the mare in New York the next spring, the Tale of the Cat colt became a

registered New York-bred. Essentially, except by designation, Platinum Couple is

a Kentucky-bred competing against the somewhat easier New York-bred fields.

Another horse that became a "New York" bred in similar circumstances was Funny Cide (Distorted Humor), who was conceived at WinStar Farm near Lexington,

Kentucky, but foaled in the Empire State.

A slightly unrelated, but interesting, side note is that after foaling

Platinum Couple, Tri-Star stables had Ingot's Dance Away bred to the New

York-based stallion Good and Tough, which resulted in a two-year-old filly for

2006. Last year, the mare was bred to Jump Start before being sold again at

Keeneland, this time bringing $165,000. After taking away the original purchase

price ($60,000), and the two stud fees (Good and Tough, $6,000 and Jump Start,

$5,000) this partnership was left with money to cover expenses and basically two

"free" horses. Some good bloodstock work had been helped with a little luck when

Dance Away Capote brought some more black-type to the family in 2004.

Having ascertained that Platinum Couple owned the pedigree to be competitive

in any New York-bred stakes, a look at his past performance lines revealed that

he was still improving. The patient Lostritto rarely wins with first- or

second-time starters, and Platinum Couple was no exception. While racing

greenly in his first race and encountering trouble at the start in his second,

he showed promise in both races while indicating that extra distance was needed.

When stretched out to a mile for the first time, the gray colt encountered some

bad luck when drawing the 13 post over a sloppy tack in the Sleepy Hollow S. He

may also have bled in that unsuccessful effort as he reappeared with Lasix added

for his next start, which resulted in a game win after a wide move.

On paper, there appeared plenty of speed to set the race up

for a closer, but that was not the case when the leaders ran the first six furlongs

in 1:15. Platinum Couple, according to the BRIS chart, was "outrun early,

rallied three wide approaching the stretch, responded when roused, finished fast

from the outside and was clear under the line." The colt paid a healthy $35

for a $2 win bet and, with further improvement expected, the colt

should be worth betting again, even if he makes the transition away from

state-bred competition.

One of the trickiest parts of handicapping is knowing how much emphasis to

place on various factors. In the case of Platinum Couple, the public paid too

much attention to his lower speed figures and less famous connections. However,

they underestimated his pedigree potential and the trainer's patience.

An upcoming runner who has not yet lived up to her pedigree is Miss Kenai

(Hennessy). Trained by the very patient Timothy Hills and scheduled to make her third

start off a three-month break, Miss Kenai is by a proven turf sire, Hennessy, whose best turf runners include

Johannesburg and Silver Tree, and she is out of the stakes-winning Jeb (Jeblar). More

importantly, Jeb is a half-sister to Arlington Million (G1) winner Mecke and

champion Beautiful Pleasure. With Bill Mott sending out a well-bred Danehill filly, Miss Kenai won't have it easy, but

she's worth watching, maybe

at decent odds, in the 7TH race at Calder on Friday.