Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

SEPTEMBER 5, 2008

by Dick Powell

With a resolve that would make Larry the Cable Guy proud, CURLIN (Smart

Strike) got the job done in the Woodward S. (G1) last Saturday at Saratoga. He

didn't earn many style points, but he avoided inclusion on the list of great

horses that have been upset at the Spa. That alone should be worth something.

If Curlin was going to beaten on the dirt, last Saturday was his opponent's

opportunity. Even at level weights, this was not a walkover for the defending

Horse of the Year. He had a rough trip on the clubhouse turn that would have

defeated most horses. He was bumped soundly and carried on midway around the

clubhouse turn. And the two horses that set a fast pace and separated themselves

from the pack were running strong.

Yes, great horses are supposed to overcome adversity, but I don't think

Curlin is getting enough credit for the adversity he had to overcome in the

Woodward. Many jockeys will tell you that when a horse is bumped soundly it

almost takes the wind out of them. It's not just the traffic a horse has to

overcome, but the amount of physical contact encountered.

Past the Point (Indian Charlie) took the field through a first quarter in

:22.89 and a half in :46.20. He was pressed by Wanderin Boy (Seeking the Gold)

and there was a wide gap back to the rest of the field. Curlin raced at least

four wide down the backstretch once he extricated himself from the clubhouse

turn trouble and Robby Albarado tried to regain contact with the front runners

without asking him for too much too soon.

Past the Point was coming off a career-best effort at Saratoga last start

when he won a non-winners of two allowance/optional claimer and earned a 106

BRIS Speed rating. One thing in his favor, and we saw this in the many winners

leading trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin sent out at the Saratoga meet, was training at

the Greentree Training Center (GTC).

Purchased last year from Bob and Janice McNair's Stonerside Stables, the GTC

is right next door to the backstretch of the Saratoga main track on Nelson

Avenue. After Darley bought it, they widened and installed a Polytrack training

surface, and the results have been remarkable. Horses training there were very

well legged up and most of them excelled on the Saratoga main track. Prior to

GTC, Past the Point had been training on Keeneland's Polytrack for Eoin Harty.

Did I expect Past the Point at 40-1 to hang on gamely through the stretch

after setting a blazing pace? Absolutely not! But he's been a different horse

this past month and at least there seems to be an explanation.

Albarado began to ask Curlin for his run and at the top of the stretch he

drew near the two front runners. At this point we all expected him to blow by

them and waltz home to thunderous and appreciative applause. Instead, he grinded

down his opposition to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The race and outcome was never

really in doubt, but Past the Point and Wanderin Boy put up a much better fight

than expected.

Based on earlier main track races on Saturday, Curlin was not on the best

part of the track as inside horses seemed to have the advantage. His final time

of 1:49.34 was about average and he earned a BRIS Speed rating of 107. Yes, his

final furlong took :14.01 to run and maybe that will be enough for some of his

opponents -- are you listening Big Brown (Boundary) camp? -- to take him on and

soon.

What I liked about Curlin's win was he did it in workmanlike fashion, avoided

the upset and he was not asked for his "A" game; just enough to "Git R Done."

His best distance is 10 furlongs, which he will get four weeks later in the

Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont. With bigger fish to fry later this year,

Steve Asmussen did just enough with Curlin to win the Woodward and not put him

over the top.

In the race before the Woodward, FIRST DEFENCE (Unbridled's Song) finally

lived up to expectations with a romping win the Forego H. (G1). Breaking from

post 1 in the seven-furlong event, Channing Hill got First Defence out of the

gate well and was able to maintain his inside position without having to use him

too hard. The first quarter in :22.53 was amazingly slow and when nobody from

the outside was able to cross over and make the lead in the run down the

backstretch, Hill was able to cruise to the front. From there, it was lights out

as First Defence opened up a commanding lead turning for home and reported home

6 3/4 lengths in front of Greeley's Conquest (Mr. Greeley), who won the place

photo by a head at 38-1 odds.

First Defence was meant to be a Grade 1 stakes winner before his dam, Honest

Lady (Seattle Slew), was a gleam in Unbridled's Song's eye. Honest Lady won the

Santa Monica H. (G1) and was second against the boys in the Breeders' Cup Sprint

(G1) and Metropolitan H. (G1) when she was four. A half-sister to Empire Maker

(Unbridled) and the late Chester House (Mr. Prospector), she was destined for

greatness on the track and as a broodmare, but First Defence took a while to

break through.

First Defence was second here in last year's King's Bishop (G1) at seven

furlongs behind Hard Spun, and his lone stakes win came earlier this year on the

turf in the Jaipur (G3). A good second in the A.G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) in his

previous start, he certainly likes Saratoga and when heavily overbet favorite

Lucky Island (Arg) (Lucky Roberto) got off to a bad start, the Forego was all

First Defence.

If you do not follow New York racing regularly, a quick word about Channing

Hill. He won 12 races at this year's meet from 145 starters and is winning at a

12 percent rate for the year. Do not under any circumstances avoid betting him,

especially in main track sprints. He gets horses out of the gate well and

despite a seat where his rear end is very low compared to his shoulders, he

keeps horses together in the stretch very well.

So here is how my meet ended. After a good start and then a brutal slump

during weeks four and five, I came back in the final week. Closing day was going

well so I decided to attack the Hopeful (G1) and made a big win bet on Cribnote

(Read the Footnotes). I loved his maiden win and even though it was against New

York-breds, it was visually impressive.

From an outside post, I thought that he would get a perfect stalking trip

while clear on the outside. At 5-1, he was great value and I could not have been

any more confident. Stalking the early leaders, Rajiv Maragh moved him up three

wide on the turn to take the lead. But a funny thing happened on my way to

new-found wealth. Cribnote forget to turn left.

In his maiden race earlier in the meet, he exploded midway around the far

turn to win handily. On Monday, he exploded to the far outside and blew the turn

completely. By the time Maragh got him straightened out he was near the outer

fence coming down the stretch. Amazingly, or just to rub salt in the wound,

Cribnote rallied for second out in the middle of the track, finishing 2 1/4

lengths behind VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]). Despite the outcome, it was

the right bet at the right price and I would do it again in a heartbeat. It was

a fitting way to end a roller coaster meet with many ups and downs.