Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 8, 2007

by Dick Powell

The racing world's focus will be on the four big turf races hosted by the

Hong Kong Jockey Club early Sunday morning from Sha Tin where the total prize

money is around $8 million. My advice is to go to www.hkjc.com/english where you

will find a plethora of racing information on the races.

First up at 1 a.m. (EST) will be the Hong Kong Sprint (HK-G1)

which will be run at 1,200 meters for $1,539,000. Sha Tin is a right-handed

course and this race will have a relatively short run into the turn and then a

long stretch run once they are straightened away. If you have watched any of

these races over the years, no lead is safe.

Thirteen horses are entered, highlighted by the Australian Horse of the Year MISS ANDRETTI (Ihtiram), winner of five

Group 1 stakes and eight Group 2s, including

a course record romp in the King's Stand (Eng-G2) at Royal Ascot. The top-rated

sprinter in the world drew poorly in post 12 and has never run on a right-handed

course. With her running style of settling in midpack, it will be interesting

to see how much ground she loses around the turn. Prefers firm ground.

Miss Andretti's major challengers should come from BENBAUN (Stravinsky),

ABSOLUTE CHAMPION (Marauding) and DESERT LORD (Green Desert). Benbaun will be

making his third attempt at this race and drew very well in post 2. He was

beaten badly by Miss Andretti in the King's Stand but came back to win the Prix

de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (Fr-G1) going 1,000 meters on a straightaway. Absolute Champion won this

race last year when he sat off a suicidal pace duel and pounced in the lane. He

was a good second here last out despite being blocked around the turn. Desert

Lord won last year's Prix de l'Abbaye but then failed here. His best run this

year was a good second in the Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1) behind sensational juvenile

sprinter Kingsgate Native (Mujadil) who showed that his win was no fluke when he

came back to run second in the Prix de l'Abbaye.

As great as Miss Andretti is, she will be vulnerable at short odds from her

outside post. I like the fact that Benbaun drew well. Last year, Jamie Spencer

was forced to use him early from post 11, but this year Pat Smullen should be

able to use his natural speed to gain position and wait for the straight to make

his run. I'll bet him to win and key him over Miss Andretti, Absolute Champion

and Desert Lord in exacta box wheels.

Next up is the Hong Kong Vase (HK-G1), a 2,400-meter run for

$1,796,000. It attracted a field of 13, with DYLAN THOMAS (Ire) (Danehill), the

second-highest weighted horse in the world looking to end his career on a high

note. He will be hard to deny.

While not known as a right-hand specialist, he drew post 7 which will enable

him to get a covered up trip. The Vase will begin at the top of the homestretch,

go by the finish line and then, one complete lap. Johnny Murtagh should be able

to gain position near the rear and then stay there until 600 meters.

Dylan Thomas hated the ground at Monmouth Park for the Breeders' Cup Turf

(G1) but should have the firmness he likes at Sha Tin. It's the end of a long,

grueling year as he makes his ninth Grade/Group 1 start, but all reports indicate

he's still doing well. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has been reserved in his comments, but the fact that he is here is the biggest vote of confidence. According to the

Fitness Report on the Hong Kong Jockey Club's web site, Dylan Thomas "showed

good turn of foot in gallop, has a good attitude, he is in good form." O'Brien

says that Dylan Thomas is the best that the Coolmore team has ever had and if he

wins the Vase, it will complete one of the more remarkable seasons of all time.

DOCTOR DINO (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) won the Man o' War S. (G1) after running third in

the Arlington Million (G1) the month before. He's not a 2,400-meter horse but

with the configuration of Sha Tin, he should be able to handle the trip. QUIJANO

(Ger)

(Acatenango) loves 2,400 meters, drew the rail and has dangerous tactical speed.

He handles any ground and thrived this winter in Dubai over firm ground so he

could be in the money at a price.

I'm not going to bet this race but cheer on Dylan Thomas. In a world where

trainers would rather keep their top horses in the barn, O'Brien has shipped

Dylan Thomas around the world. You got to love that.

After a break in the Group 1 action, the  Hong Kong Mile (HK-G1)

is up next as race 7 on the 10-race card. Last year's upset winner, THE

DUKE (Danehill), returns after drawing poorly in his past three starts. He has a

big kick when right and draws post 3 here. KONGO RIKISHIO (Stravinsky) ships

in from Japan. He draws the rail and will go to the front; daring the field to

catch him. He likes fast ground and has faced top company in Japan.

EXCELLENT ART (GB) (Pivotal) just missed in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) when he

was hung out wide and the winner saved ground on the rail. I think it's harder

for three-year-olds to endure a long campaign, and it might be a greater training feat if

O'Brien were to win with him instead of the more experienced Dylan Thomas. DARJINA

(Zamindar) takes on males again, something she's known for having won the Prix

du Moulin de Longchamp (Fr-G1) beating RAMONTI (Martino Alonso). From the Aga Khan's powerhouse

stable, she drew post 9 and will make one, late run. All the visual reports

indicate she's doing great.

FLORAL PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) was a good second last time out but drew

post 11. Gerald Mosse rides back for leading trainer Tony Cruz. GOOD BA BA

(Lear Fan) seems to be rounding back into form and drew post six.

In a wide-open race, I'll bet Kongo Rikishio win and place and then play a

four-horse trifecta box with Darjina, Good Ba Ba and Floral Pegasus.

The final big race of the day will be the Hong Kong Cup (HK-G1)

run at 2,000 meters for a purse of $2,565,000. It attracted a field of seven,

including bitter rivals VIVA PATACA (Marju) and VENGEANCE OF RAIN

(Zabeel), along with Godolphin shipper Ramonti, who is looking to win his fourth Group 1 of the

year.

Vengeance of Rain won the 2,400-meter Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) earlier this year in

Dubai when he defeated last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo

[Ire]). He's back at his best

distance and was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths in a mile prep here last month, but has to

overcome the wide post in the short run into the first turn.

Viva Pataca is a multiple Group 1 stakes winner at Sha Tin and won a

slow-paced prep here last month. He's beaten Vengeance of Rain three of his last

five tries but finished behind him in this race last year. I'll be shocked if he

doesn't beat him this time.

Ramonti is this year's champion miler in Europe who stretches out to 2,000

meters for Saeed bin Suroor. World traveler was third in the Hong Kong Mile last

year and that experience should do him well here. Frankie Dettori will send him

to the front and try to slow the pace down.

I'll make a win bet on Viva Pataca and a straight exacta over Ramonti.