Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

JANUARY 10, 2007

by James Scully

We'll begin this year's Kentucky Derby Report with a review of three stakes

so far in 2008 -- the Hutcheson S. (G2), Count Fleet S. and Tropical Park

Derby (G3).

Saturday's Hutcheson was the first graded stakes of 2008 for three-year-olds

on the main track and the seven-furlong test produced a surprising result in

SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz). Sent off the 9-1 sixth choice in an eight-horse field,

the Bennie Stutts Jr.-trained colt closely stalked the pace before sweeping to the

lead and pulling clear to a one-length decision. A maiden winner in the slop at

Calder in July, Smooth Air placed in a couple of stakes before concluding his

juvenile season with a runaway allowance score at Calder in late November.

The bay colt registered a 99 BRIS Speed rating for his first stakes success

and could attempt a route in his next start, but Stutts is also considering the

six-furlong Sunshine Millions Dash for the Florida-bred sprinter.

SILVER EDITION (Silver Deputy) took a step in the right direction in the

Hutcheson, taking a brief lead at the top of the stretch before settling for

runner-up honors, but the speedy colt has never been two turns and is out of a

Meadowlake mare. He'll still get every opportunity to earn his way into the

Kentucky Derby picture for D. Wayne Lukas. HALO NAJIB (Halo's Image), the 2-1

favorite, rallied from off the pace to reach contention in midstretch before

settling for third, four lengths back of the winner. Runner-up in the Iroquois

S. (G3) and a close fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), the Dale Romans

runner is a more promising contender for upcoming events like the Florida Derby

(G1) than the top two finishers, but Halo Najib still has much to prove.

Remsen S. (G2) fourth-placer BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) and What a Pleasure

S. runner-up COAL PLAY (Mineshaft) both failed to fire in the Hutcheson,

checking in fifth and seventh, respectively, and the maiden TIZ IT (Tiznow), who

was bet down to 7-2 off of a pair of runner-up efforts last year, faltered to

sixth after setting the pace for the opening half-mile.

GIANT MOON (Giant's Causeway) won Saturday's Count Fleet at

Aqueduct by only a neck, but the unbeaten colt appeared in complete control in the final

furlongs, notching his first victory versus open rivals. He hasn't posted a

triple-digit BRIS Speed number yet, but Giant Moon earned a respectable 95

rating in the one-mile and 70-yard Count Fleet.

With his sire commanding a six-figure stud fee, Giant Moon is hardly your

typical New York-bred. He owns a pedigree more similar to 2004 Florida Derby

winner Friends Lake, a New York-bred by A.P. Indy out of multiple Grade 1 winner

Antespend, than the standard fare we witness in the Empire State. Trainer

Richard Schosberg took advantage of the New York-bred program last season,

saddling the bay colt to scores in the Sleepy Hollow S. and Damon Runyon S., but

Giant Moon firmly established himself as a viable Kentucky Derby candidate in the

Count Fleet. Class remains a big question, but we'll learn more in his upcoming starts,

possibly starting with the Gotham S. (G3) on March 8.

The January 1 Tropical Park Derby was a proverbial walk in the park for

COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway), who cruised to a two-length decision in the 1

1/8-mile turf affair at Calder. After dropping his career debut on the dirt at

Saratoga, Cowboy Cal found the turf very hospitable, winning a maiden special

weight event, the Laurel Futurity and Tropical Park Derby in succession. That's

the same pattern of Barbaro, with the exception of the dirt debut.

Trainer Todd Pletcher hopes to keep the momentum rolling when Cowboy Cal heads

back to the main track, probably in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) on February 24.

Cowboy Cal owns a terrific dirt pedigree, but what are the chances of two

notable turf performers in a three-year period making a seamless transition to

dirt that results in Kentucky Derby glory? In one sense, Barbaro was an

aberration: he was arguably the best horse foaled in 2003 on both dirt and turf.

That's a real rarity. In fact, Barbaro's the only Kentucky Derby winner to win a

turf stakes race beforehand in my lifetime. I would rate Cowboy Cal higher than

any three-year-old turf horse in North America at this point in the season, and

I won't dismiss his chances on the main track because he's obviously very

talented. I just have a hard time believing it until I see it.

Here's a look at some recent allowance and maiden special weight winners with

Kentucky Derby aspirations:

LEGACY THIEF (Cat Thief) opened his three-year-old season with an impressive

showing at Gulfstream on Saturday, winning a six-furlong allowance by 4 1/4

lengths in the slop. A 5 3/4-length maiden special weight victor in his previous

start at Aqueduct, the Lukas-trained colt notched excellent Speed figures (102

and 98) in his last two outings. Legacy Thief hasn't tried two turns yet, but

he's by a Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner and out of a Broad Brush mare.

CROWN OF THORNS (Repent) crushed his maiden special weight rivals at Santa

Anita on New Year's Day, extending a one-length margin at the top of the stretch

to seven lengths at the wire. The Richard Mandella pupil made his second career

appearance in the seven-furlong heat and registered a very promising 96 Speed

number. This is the same female family of champion sprinter and sire Smoke

Glacken, but there is plenty of stamina on both sides of his pedigree.

IRON WORKS PIKE (Five Star Day) made a splash at Fair Grounds on December

28, drawing off to a three-length score in his career debut. The Al Stall Jr. runner netted a 93 Speed

figure in the six-furlong event. I'm not sure how far he wants

to go, but Iron Works Pike looks like a colt with a bright future.

READY SET (Touch Gold) and VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam) are a pair of recent

allowance winners in South Florida for Michael Matz. Ready Set, an $800,000

yearling purchase by Lael Stables, broke his maiden by 10 lengths at Delaware

Park last September and wrapped up his juvenile season with an easy score at

Calder on December 28, overcoming a stumbling start to win the one-mile and

70-yard test by 4 1/4 lengths. He's a full brother to Grade 1 winner Composure. Visionaire displayed a dynamic finishing kick when capturing a one-mile

allowance at Gulfstream on Friday, turning a 10-length deficit into a 1

1/2-length advantage in less than a half-mile. The chestnut colt wound up

winning by 5 1/2 lengths and received a 98 Speed rating. Visionaire is

definitely one to follow.

COAST GUARD (Stormy Atlantic) looked good when rolling to a 2 1/2-length,

front-running maiden special weight score at Santa Anita on December 29, posting

a 91 Speed rating in the one-mile event. The dark bay colt is likely headed to

stakes company for David Hofmans.

STUNGBYTHESTORM (Vindication) broke his maiden in resounding fashion at Fair Grounds on January 1, stretching out to two turns for the first time in his

third career outing. A close second in his previous start at Churchill Downs,

the Steve Asmussen charge dominated this 8 1/2-furlong affair on the front end

and recorded a 91 Speed rating. The bay colt hails from a classy female family.

REFLECT TIMES (Jpn) (French Deputy) remained unbeaten with a one-length

allowance score at Santa Anita on December 28, closing from far back to win the

6 1/2-furlong test. The John Shirreffs trainee has registered century-topping

BRIS Late Pace numbers in both career starts, and the chestnut colt is out of a

Seeking the Gold mare.

UNBRIDLED REFRAIN (Unbridled's Song) broke his maiden first time out for

Allen Jerkens at Calder on January 2, taking a 5 1/2-furlong event by 2 1/2

lengths over only three rivals. He's bred to run all day on his dam's side, and

the gray colt displayed some precociousness here, registering a 91 Speed figure.

His granddam is champion Outstandingly.

Upcoming

Saturday's one-mile Lecomte S. (G3)

at the Fair Grounds will feature an intriguing cast of eight, including TEXAS FEVER (Victory

Gallop), BLACKBERRY ROAD (Gone West) and THE DARP (Proud Citizen). Texas Fever exits a close sixth in the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and captured the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3) two

starts back at Turfway Park. Trained by Michael Stidham, the bay colt will make

his first dirt start after competing exclusively on turf and Polytrack.

Blackberry Road checked in third behind Texas Fever in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile

and rounded out his juvenile season with a hard-charging second in the Kentucky

Jockey Club, missing by only a half-length. The Darp will make his stakes debut

following an impressive 9 1/4-length romp over maiden special weight rivals at

Fair Grounds on December 14.

Santa Anita will host the San Rafael S. (G3) on Saturday, and seven

sophomores are entered in the one-mile event. The unbeaten EL GATO MALO (El

Corredor), an easy winner of the Gold Rush S. at Golden Gate Fields last out,

and Grade 3 hero and CashCall Futurity (G1) third-placer MASSIVE DRAMA (Kafwain)

are top draws.

Top 10

A Kentucky Derby top 10 list in early January is subject to radical change,

but let's get the ball rolling.

1) MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) -- A.P. Indy has been represented by a

Preakness (G1) hero (Bernardini) and Belmont (G1) heroine (Rags to Riches) in

recent years, but the Kentucky Derby still eludes him. Majestic Warrior could

fill the void. A superb winner of the Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga, the Bill

Mott-trained colt has all the tools to be an outstanding three-year-old. Eagerly

awaiting his return to the worktab.

2) COURT VISION (Gulch) -- Another Mott trainee with an outstanding pedigree

for the Kentucky Derby. His BRIS Speed ratings could be a little higher, but

loved his winning effort in the Remsen S. (G2). A stakes victor two starts back

at Churchill Downs, Court Vision will bring a three-race win skein into his

sophomore debut.

3) COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) -- A smart winner of the Real Quiet S. two back, the

Eoin Harty runner didn't enjoy a clean trip in the CashCall Futurity but

still offered a strong rally for second. He's by a two-time Breeders' Cup

Classic (G1) winner and out of a mare by Turkoman, the broodmare sire of Point Given.

The classy colt has earned triple-digit Late Pace numbers in three of his four

career starts. It will be interesting to see whether he remains in California through

the spring or his connections elect to ship in order to give him a race on dirt

prior to the Run for the Roses.

4) INTO MISCHIEF (Harlan's Holiday) -- Another California-based runner with

no dirt experience, the Richard Mandella-trained colt recorded a commendable win

in the 1 1/16-mile CashCall Futurity in his third lifetime outing. Talented colt

owns excellent tactical speed and even though his broodmare sire is the

unheralded Tricky Creek, this female family is laced with class and stamina.

5) PYRO (Pulpit) -- Maiden winner concluded last season with a

solid runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), closing from far back

to be 12 lengths clear of third. That was his first start around two turns, and Pyro is eligible to show much more this season for Asmussen.

6) TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) -- Futurity (G2) winner never appeared

comfortable when finishing fourth over the sloppy track at Monmouth Park in the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Expect him to return at a high level this year for

Barclay Tagg and won't be surprised to see him be a serious force in the

division. Note that he's out of a Sunday Silence mare.

7) WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) -- There's no doubting the speed and class of the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and likely champion, but can't rate him higher due to concerns about his ability to navigate

10 furlongs.

8) VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam) -- Late runner is a dark horse at this stage, but

the Matz pupil owns a terrific turn of foot and may continue to develop into a

serious player.

9) MUSHKA (Empire Maker) -- What is a filly doing on this list? See the

November 24 Demoiselle S. (G2).

10) COUNTRY STAR (Empire Maker) -- Another miss crashes the top 10. From the

first crop of classic winner Empire Maker, the Bobby Frankel-conditioned filly

broke her maiden in the Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland and was a smashing

winner of the Hollywood Starlet S. (G1). Both wins have come on synthetic tracks

and Frankel may not be in too much of a rush to send a filly to the Kentucky

Derby, but Country Star looks very special.