Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

FEBRUARY 16, 2005

by James Scully

Saturday's Risen Star S. (G3) served as a coming-out party for SCIPION (A.P. Indy). The well-bred colt earned his first stakes victory with a

last-to-first rally at Fair Grounds and appears headed in the right direction

for trainer Patrick Biancone.

A three-quarter brother to undefeated champion Vindication, Scipion was

highly touted last summer after capturing his career bow at Saratoga but

finished his juvenile campaign with two uninspiring stakes attempts. He didn't

return with much luster in his sophomore debut, finishing third in an

entry-level allowance at Santa Anita in mid-January, but Saturday's effort

marked a major turnaround for the dark bay. Given his appealing pedigree and

room for improvement, Scipion could continue to develop into a major contender

for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

That's the good side, but the Risen Star didn't impress us for several

reasons.

Pedestrian sums up the final time of 1:44.54 when compared to a pair of

faster-run stakes at the 1 1/16-mile distance within an hour of the Risen Star. Scipion received only a 95 BRIS Speed rating (he's never earned a triple-digit

figure), and the lightly raced Summerly (Summer Squall), who raced greenly while

weaving in and out through the stretch drive, did not flatter him when

needing nearly a second less to complete the Silverbulletday S. (G3) two races

earlier. Despite being a nice three-year-old filly, Summerly wasn't expected to

upstage male counterparts with a much better final time.

Little separated the top six finishers at the wire. Runner-up REAL DANDY

(Yankee Victor) jumped up in class to surprise at 44-1. Third placer STORM SURGE (Storm

Cat) made the lead in deep stretch, but the three-time stakes winner doesn't

want to go any farther than a mile at this stage in his career despite a

distance friendly pedigree.

The bubble burst for HARLINGTON (Unbridled), who finished sixth at 6-5, but

this would be the wrong time to sell the Derby futures. He finished only three lengths back

of the winner and owns as much upside as any of the Risen Star

contestants. The precocious colt won his first two career starts, but he had

never raced over a fast track and got caught wide

on both turns from an outside post. Inexperience finally caught up with Harlington on Saturday.

Look for him to improve significantly for Todd Pletcher.

Saturday's Whirlaway S. attracted pre-race attention due to the presence of

Remsen S. (G2) runner-up GALLOPING GROCER (A.P. Jet), but the speedy gelding

could do no better than fourth as SORT IT OUT (Out of Place) rallied from off

the pace to the lead in midstretch and then dug in gamely to withstand runner-up

NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Quiet American) by a neck at Aqueduct. The winner impressed

with his tenacity and a 103 Speed figure, and there's plenty to like about the

female side of his family. He's out of the Kris S. mare Vex, who is a

grand-daughter of stakes winner File (Tom Rolfe), the dam of Forty Niner.

Bred in New York, Sort It Out will have to be a late nominee to the Triple

Crown and still has a lot to prove. Naughty New Yorker may have hung some in the

final sixteenth, but the winner deserves kudos for his first stakes victory and

has now won three straight for conditioner Allen Iwinski.

Sunday's seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2) lost ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi

Pegasus) to a quarter crack, another setback for the talented Grade 2 winner who

had health issues last year. Breeders' Futurity (G1) victor CONSOLIDATOR (Storm

Cat), who was last seen finishing a good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

(G1), went to the gate as the even-money favorite, but FUSAICHI ROCK STAR (Wild

Wonder) proved much the best on the front end, establishing a clear early lead

en route to a one-length decision.

After being unplaced in two juvenile stakes attempts, the Bob Baffert-trained

Fusaichi Rock Star looked much improved in 2005 and could go on to be a top-class

performer. However, he's never been two turns and isn't bred for 10 furlongs.

His forte could prove to be at shorter distances.

Consolidator didn't exactly fire over the wet-fast track, but he was beaten

only 2 1/2 lengths by the winner in finishing last of four. Given the colt's

back class, trainer D. Wayne Lukas probably didn't care much about winning this

seven-furlong race. He was just giving Consolidator a race to set him up for the

future.

As opposed to many contemporaries with accomplished horses from last season,

Lukas wants to have a fit three-year-old on the first Saturday in May. Other

trainers are intentionally keeping their runners in the barn until March and are

seriously risking bringing a short animal to Churchill. No horse in the last 20

years has won the Kentucky Derby off only a couple of preps at three.

DON'T GET MAD (Stephen Got Even) made a good impression with his runner-up

finish. The bay colt closed from far off the pace to win his first two starts

sprinting at Churchill Downs last November and offered a strong late run up the

rail to grab second here in his three-year-old bow. Bred to run long, Don't Get

Mad earned a 116 Late Pace rating and will finally stretch out to two turns in

his next start for Ron Ellis. He's a promising individual who could develop

rapidly.

Given the wide-open nature of this year's Kentucky Derby picture, this is a

good year to look for a late bloomer. Many top contenders will have little room

for error while waiting on the sidelines until March for their sophomore debuts,

and there are plenty of speed-laden candidates with questionable pedigrees for 1

1/4 miles.