Saratoga Daily Notebook

SARATOGA DAILY NOTEBOOK

OPENING DAY EDITION, 2005

by Dick Powell

I'm not good at waxing poetic about Saratoga. All I can tell you is that

I like this place so much I moved here in 1984 and will never leave. Unless, of

course, I am asked.

Luckily for me, I live exactly 18 minutes away from the Nelson Avenue gate

(seven-eighths pole) and because of the direction I come from it doesn't matter

if it's a Thursday or Travers Day - I don't have to deal with the normal

Northway/Union Avenue traffic problems. Saratoga is a city of 26,000 people that

expands, according to the Saratoga Chamber of Commerce, to close to 75,000

during the racing season.

Many locals send their kids to top colleges by parking cars on their lawns

for 36 days. Customers are both loyal and superstitious and often times park at

the same house each year. The guy whose house you are parking at might tell you

about a tip on a hot firster he got earlier in the morning and by the time you

get to the admission gate, after running the gauntlet of tout sheet hawkers, you

probably have enough inside information to get you through the day.

However, here at Bloodstock Research Information Services, we like to take a

more rational approach to Saratoga handicapping. There are very few secrets at

Saratoga and even if you haven't been clued in by someone the tote board usually

gives it away. The 20-1 morning line horses that are 3-1 two minutes before post

time must have some buzz coming from the stable that has spread like wildfire

and you can take advantage.

But day in and day out it is going to be hard work, preparation and

flexibility that is going to make Saratoga a success for you. And all three

attributes are tested each day because of the ever-changing weather we have

here. You can work hard, prepare for the day's races and with a sudden downpour,

all your work is down the drain unless you are a flexible player. Saratoga

requires quick thinking and going to plan "B" on a moment's notice.

First, plug zip code 12866 into any weather web sites you want to check. BRIS'

Handicapper's Edge gives you weather forecasts in advance but it pays to check

as late as possible. Even then, there have been times when it has been pouring

at my house from an afternoon thunderstorm and not raining at the track, or,

vice versa. Thunderstorms are always a possibility, especially late in the

afternoon on hot, humid days.

Thus, when doing your advance handicapping, check for wet track statistics

and anticipate turf races coming off the turf. If you are at the track, NYRA

does a good job on its matrix toteboard giving you all of the day's changes. If

watching at a simulcast site, watch the crawl at the bottom of the screen. If

following on the internet, brisbet.com gives you all the latest up-to-the-minute

changes.

One thing customers get frustrated with is keeping track off all the changes

and then re-handicapping the race. Even a turf race with 12 entrants that has

seven scratches after being switched to the main track will still have five

horses that need to be handicapped in terms of speed, who can get the distance,

trainer intent, etc.

If the weather is bad, there's still money to be made if you pay attention.

Plus, when these horses run back you should have a big edge.

*****

I don't want to give the impression that it always rains in Saratoga, but

another tool you can follow is to pay attention to which trainers work their

horses out when the track is wet in the morning. Some trainers like to wait a

day for the weather to get better but others, like Shug McGaughey, work their

horses no matter what and they often benefit from their rainy morning works when

they encounter a rainy afternoon.

NYRA does a good job on its simulcast feed with shoe information and this can

be critically important. Many trainers now use bends or turndowns but others use

mud caulks as well. Allen Jerkens, Nick Zito and Mike Hushion will usually equip

their horses with four-wheel-drive and they have an edge when there's moisture

in the track.

Finally, NYRA, with the permission of the New York State Racing and Wagering

Board, has instituted a new Pick 6 rule to deal with days when a turf race is

switched to the main track after the Pick 6 pool has closed. Now, when a turf

race is switched to the main track after the Pick 6 pool has closed, that race

becomes an "all" race for the pick-six. If more than one turf race is switched

to the main track, any carryover money from the previous day will not be part of

that day's Pick 6 payoff but will be carried over to the next day.

*****

The logistics of the NYRA detention barn will be severely tested at Saratoga

this year. With stalls at a premium, NYRA has erected tents with temporary

stalls to houses horses for their six-hour detention before the post time of

their race. It should go relatively smoothly, but it

will be interesting to see how some of the two-year-olds handle it when making their

first start on days with severe weather. The only way to protect yourself is pay even closer attention to

the televised shots of the paddock and post parade to see if any of the

youngsters have melted down.

Another factor with the detention barn rule is look for fewer horses shipping

in from out of state. If you enter a horse and it winds up in race one, you have

to have that horse in the detention barn six hours before post time -- 7 a.m.

(EDT) in this case. This would mean leaving Delaware Park or Monmouth around

midnight to ship in the cooler weather and arrive in Saratoga in the morning for

a six-hour wait in the detention barn. As we saw at the recently-concluded

Belmont Spring/Summer meet, field size was down and this trend should continue

here at the Spa.

*****

Trainers have been given fewer stalls for this year's meet so it's unlikely

that Todd Pletcher can approach last year's 35-win total. He has divisions at

Monmouth and Delaware and with their purses being only 20 percent less than

Saratoga, look for Pletcher to start fewer horses. He'll still be loaded as

usual, but the gross numbers might not be there. The same goes for Bobby Frankel.

Rick Dutrow comes off his 60-day suspension on August 1 but with the success

of assistant trainer Juan Rodriguez, would anyone even notice? Dutrow's barn

hummed along without him and he should be a factor in the trainer's standings

with higher-caliber stock and the likelihood of more claiming races being

carded. Plus, as we saw with Golden Man (Suave Prospect), Dutrow can always run

the same horses back the next day.

*****

Horses that train at the Oklahoma Training Track across the street usually

work about two seconds slower than if the work was on the main track. A five

furlong 1:01 breeze at Oklahoma is a huge work that would equate to around 59

seconds on the main track.

Okalahoma also has a turf training track that often times gets baked by the

sun if there are no showers and will yield extremely fast times despite working

around the dogs. A horse who breezes 1:01 (d) on the Oklahoma training turf

course probably wouldn't go that fast if the weather has been dry.

*****

City Zip is off to a fast start at stud and it should continue

during Saratoga. Now standing in Kentucky at Lane's End, he began his stud

career here in New York and will have many precocious youngsters racing here.

Plus, he loved the Saratoga main track, winning all three juvenile stakes that NYRA used to schedule here

-- Hopeful S. (G1), Sanford S. (G2) and Saratoga

Special S. (G2) -- plus he came back at three to win the Amsterdam S. (G2).

On opening day, he has a filly, LITTLE MISS ZIP, who blitzed New York-bred

maidens in her career debut going five furlongs in fast time and earned a BRIS Speed figure of 94.

*****

Pencil in August 27 as a day to be here or play from your local simulcast

site. Yes, it's Travers Day and AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) will be

here. But now, trainer Nick Zito is planning to run Kinsman Stable's BELLAMY

ROAD (Concerto) in the King's Bishop S. (G1) going seven furlongs against

undefeated sophomore sprint sensation LOST IN THE FOG (Lost Soldier). There

should be no complaints about NYRA raising ticket prices on Travers Day if these

two hook up in a long sprint on a fast track.

Tomorrow's Outlook

-- Opening Day

Wednesday's 5TH race kicks off the first Pick 6 of

the meet and is an 11-horse maiden special weight event going 5 1/2 furlongs for

two-year-olds. Many Saratoga handicappers have trouble with these types of races

since there are more horses that have not started than have raced. However, if

you use BRIS products you start out with a huge advantage. In the Ultimate Past

Performances that I use, BRIS now gives you a three-year synopsis of the class

and distance of the race in terms of how the favorites do and what they paid.

For example, for Wednesday's 5TH race conditions,

there have been 26 races run in the last three years here and 46 percent have

been won by the favorite. That is a staggering number with unproven horses. The

field size has been a healthy 8.8 per race and 81 percent of the winners went

off at less than 5-1 odds. What this tells you at a glance is that this class

condition is very formful and in a multiple-race wager you might want to use

fewer horses than normal.

Upon further inspection, this is a very competitive

race and will be hard to narrow down to a few. Nature versus nurture. I believe

that nature overcomes nurture more than nurture overcomes nature. In other

words, a horse that is bred to do something naturally (first time starter, turf,

wet track) will succeed more often than a horse that needs to be trained to do

something. Manuscript (Carson City) is a perfect example. Bill Mott only wins

with 7 percent of his first time starters, but Carson City sires a tremendous 19

percent first-time winners. When confronted with a circumstance where the horse

has one attribute but not the other, I tend to give more weight to nature - in

this case, a very precocious pedigree. If the trainer is exceptional nurturing

young horses to first out success but the pedigree lacks the ability to win

first out, I am more likely to take a pass.

Checking those that are making their career debuts in

race five, CAT CRIMINAL (Tale of the Cat), trained by Steve Klesaris, has both.

EXPRESS NEWS (Storm Cat), trained by Graham Motion, has nature. SECRET TIME

(Gilded Time), trained by Mark Hennig, is average on both counts. MANUSCRIPT

(Carson City), trained by Bill Mott, has nature. OVERLAND TRAIL (Gone West),

trained by Wayne Lukas, has nature. VELVET CAT (Cat Thief), trained by Todd Pletcher, seems to have both with a strong dam-side pedigree and a young sire.

And, AGAIN AND AGAIN (Honour and Glory), trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, has both.

Of the four horses that have raced, all have

shown serious running talent. WRIGLEY (Grand Slam) raced the best when he chased

the classy STONERSIDE (Giant's Causeway) in very fast time on June 30. Luckily, I

am not a Pick 6 player so I don't have to worry about going too deep and using

up too many bullets. However, race five is the final leg of the early Pick 4 and should provide a pool that will be very spread out.

As tempting as the first-time starters look, I am

going to key Wrigley in race 5. He made a nice middle move in his first start

before weakening and trainer George Weaver is not known for first-out success

anyway. The two-year-old bay cost $250,000 last year as a yearling for Dogwood

Stable, who always points their horses for this meet. Wrigley breaks from post

8 and shows a good half-mile breeze here 10 days ago, and if he improves any

off his debut he'll be tough in here.

Of the firsters, I like Cat Criminal the best despite

breaking from post 1. He'll be the first to load, have to wait for everybody

else and faces the possibility of being shuffled back into traffic if he's

a half step slow out of the gate. But, he's bred to be a fast one, worked quick

when sold for $400,000 this February at Fasig-Tipton Calder and has continued to

work well at Fair Hill Training Center. Steve Klesaris and the Puglisi Stables

have been big spenders at the juvenile sales the past few years and this one

looks to be a good one.

Edgar Prado rides a lot of live horses for Klesaris

and if he breaks this one well he'll be right in it. If race 10 stays on the

turf, I like HE FLIES (Concorde's Tune) for Dominick Schettino. He was an even

third last out at this class and distance, draws well and gets Ramon

Dominguez, who wins an unconscious 22 percent on the turf.