Southwest J

AMERICAN

GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) has a few questions to answer in Saturday's $250,000

Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park, but we believe that he'll come up with the

right responses to boost his standing on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail. A

massive colt, he nevertheless showed precocity for D. Wayne Lukas, who has made

no secret of his high regard for him. Dublin was a closing fourth in a key

Churchill Downs maiden last June -- won by Backtalk (Smarty Jones) over

Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa) -- and he promptly broke his maiden with an

impressive rally next time out at Saratoga, with Eightyfiveinafifty (Forest

Camp) back in third. Dublin uncorked a similarly powerful kick to capture the

historic Hopeful S. (G1), defeating such smart rivals as Aspire (Tale of the

Cat) and Aikenite (Yes It's True) and convincingly turning the tables on

Backtalk.

Although his reputation has been tarnished by two disappointing efforts to

conclude his juvenile campaign, we are encouraged that he has since undergone

corrective surgery for an entrapped epiglottis, and even more so by his strong

series of works at Oaklawn. The fact that Lukas is firing on all cylinders right

now is another plus. He should get a legitimate pace to set up his late run in his two-turn debut.

Terry Thompson, who has been aboard Dublin during training hours, picks up the

mount on the stalker.

DRYFLY (Jump Start) has all the ingredients of a first-rate front runner,

combining early speed, tractability and stamina with toughness and a determined

attitude. The Lynn Whiting pupil displayed all of those traits in an allowance

at Churchill two back, where he appeared to hit the rail at the top of the

stretch, lost the lead, yet fought back to win convincingly. Last time out,

Dryfly wired the field in the Smarty Jones S. at this track and trip. He looked

to be tiring late that day, but it was still an authoritative two-turn debut.

Dryfly promises to take another step forward, if he can avoid an early speed

duel beneath Calvin Borel.

Undefeated Southern California shipper CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) looms as

the most serious pace threat to Dryfly. The Bob Baffert trainee has blazing

early foot, as evidenced by his maiden and allowance scores in sprints, but he

proved that he could ration that speed effectively in the one-mile San Rafael S.

(G3). Conveyance shrugged off a brief challenge and drew off in the San Rafael,

despite his obvious greenness through the stretch, and extended his mark to

three-for-three, all on synthetic tracks. If Conveyance handles the transition to dirt, and does not

expend too much energy in vying with Dryfly, he can last a long way.

PLEASANT STORM (Pleasant Tap), last early on in the Smarty Jones, rolled home

late in eye-catching fashion for second. The dark bay defied his pedigree to win

his first two going six furlongs, including the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile S.,

and is clearly crying out for longer distances. Short of an utter pace meltdown

in the Southwest, it's hard to see the Joe Petalino colt getting up to win over

a flat mile at Oaklawn, but he's well qualified to rally into the superfecta. We

like him as an intriguing long-term prospect.

MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled's Song) invades from Florida for the

ever-dangerous Todd Pletcher barn. While we respect the gray, who has yet to run

a bad race from three starts, we're a little concerned about backing him off a

huge comeback race at Gulfstream. Making his first start since a troubled third

in the April 30 Kentucky Juvenile S. (G3), he argued the pace with stablemate

Three Day Rush (Harlan's Holiday) throughout a January 9 allowance and was just

outdueled by a head. Perhaps the 37-day layoff has given him enough time to

regroup, but he could regress a bit, especially in his first attempt at two

turns. We'll still use Mission Impazible underneath in the gimmicks, though.

KITTY'S TURN (Langfuhr) has been holding his own in useful company in this

region, and he comes off a rallying third to Dryfly and Pleasant Storm in the

Smarty Jones. On the down side, this is a tougher spot, and we're not convinced

that he has a lot of upside at this point. CARDIFF GIANT (Yankee Gentleman) and

DOMONATION (Maria's Mon), respectively second and third to Conveyance in the San

Rafael, would need to improve markedly off that effort to factor here.

Domonation arguably has a better shot of doing so, partially because he has less

experience than Cardiff Giant, and also because he had some trouble in the San

Rafael. Still, Domonation doesn't look like one of John Sadler's leading lights

right now.

COOL BULLET (Red Bullet) ships up from Fair Grounds, where he battled to a

game score in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. two back. Most recently, the Steve

Margolis gelding chased a hot pace before retreating to third in the Lecomte S.

(G3) in his two-turn bow. A similar scenario is likely to unfold here, and we

envision Cool Bullet's future is in sprinting. CRIDER (Closing Argument) raced

evenly for fourth in the Smarty Jones in his first try at a route, and the only

point in his favor is that he is trained by Steve Asmussen.