Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

MARCH 24, 2006

by James Scully

Right approach -- Give trainer Eoghan O'Neill credit for providing

SILENT TIMES (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby (G1).

The horse might not be good enough, but O'Neill recognizes that a European-based

runner needs at least one three-year-old prep race in the United States before

attempting 1 1/4 miles on the dirt at Churchill Downs. He's watched Arazi and

Johannesburg as well as Godolphin-owned horses fail miserably without one, and it's

been strictly an

egotistical approach where an American prep race didn't serve their connections,

never mind the best interests of the horse. O'Neill has paid attention. Bold

Arrangement, who never won a graded or group stakes race in his career, is the best

example of what it takes for a European horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Trained

by the outstanding horseman Clive Brittain, Bold Arrangement probably wasn't as

good as many of the European horses who tried to win the Kentucky Derby after

him, but he outperformed them in a big way when finishing second to Ferdinand in

the 1986 Kentucky Derby. Brittain shipped Bold Arrangement to the United States

for a start in the Blue Grass S. (G1), in which the colt finished third behind

Bachelor Beau and Bolshoi Boy. The horses in front of him that day were nowhere

to be found in the Kentucky Derby, but Bold Arrangement moved forward

significantly. Silent Times will run in Saturday's Lane's End S. (G2).

Discreet -- Here's the perfect example of the other approach. DISCREET

CAT (Forestry), who appears to be a much more talented colt than Silent Times,

will be one of the favorites in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) and could earn a trip

to Louisville, Kentucky, with a victory on Saturday. He ran once last year, a 3

1/2-length victory in a six-furlong maiden race at Saratoga, and didn't reappear

under silks until March 9, stylishly winning an about one-mile allowance at Nad

al Sheba. With six weeks left until May 6, the Blue Grass (April 15) or

Lexington S. (G2) (April 22) would both offer Discreet Cat the perfect opportunity for

a U.S. start to enhance his chances at winning the Kentucky Derby. Godolphin has

hinted that they may bypass the Kentucky Derby regardless, but a strong

performance on Saturday could convince them to send Discreet Cat to Churchill Downs with

only three starts under his belt.

Brass -- Nobody wanted BRASS HAT (Prized) when he made his career

debut in a $15,000 maiden claiming race at Turfway Park two years ago. The

former claimer now has the opportunity to capture the richest race in the world,

Saturday's $6 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1). The Fred Bradley homebred has

overcome a broken ankle, suffered during the 2004 Lone Star Derby (G3), and

earned his first Grade 1 win in the Donn H. last out. That's the beauty of

Thoroughbred racing -- horses from the most humble beginnings can eventually

rise up and become among the best of their generation. The long list includes

notables such as John Henry, Charismatic, Megahertz (GB) and even

one of the favorites for this year's Kentucky Derby, Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr), who

finished second in a maiden claiming race at Turfway Park last September. Brass

Hat will add another incredible chapter to his rags-to-riches story with a win

in Dubai.

Resurgence -- What a difference a change in scenery made for A. P.

WARRIOR (A.P. Indy). After disappointing with unplaced finishes in the Hollywood

Futurity (G1) and El Camino Real Derby (G3), the $1.3 million yearling purchase

rebounded to capture the San Felipe S. (G2) under the direction of new trainer

John Shirreffs. Despite the breakthrough, critics remain. Now 3-2-1-0 at Santa

Anita, A. P. Warrior has failed to hit the board in his last three starts elsewhere,

generating sentiments that he is a horse for the course. The dark bay colt has

also been criticized for his come-home time, with a final five-sixteenths in

:32. I'm not buying the criticisms. A. P. Warrior earned a much better Speed

rating than Lawyer Ron in his first true performance of the year and is just

rounding into his best form presently. He's eligible to improve greatly in his

upcoming starts. Runner-up POINT DETERMINED (Point Given) and third-placer BOB

AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold) shouldn't be discounted either. Point Determined

offered a good rally for second, threatening the winner in midstretch before

weakening slightly late, and his best days are strictly ahead of him. Bob and

John was bumped soundly at the start, didn't appear to like having dirt kicked

in his face, and came rolling into the stretch wide before flattening out.

Following easy wins in his previous two starts, the Grade 3 victor needed a

stiff test and received it. Brother Derek (Benchmark) is the standard bearer out

West, and the California contingent looks strong for the Kentucky Derby.

Memories of Valhol -- Lost in the shuffle of Saturday's Rebel S. (G3)

was the surprising effort from maiden FILM FORTUNE (Indy Film), who recorded a

fast-finishing fifth, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths for second and 5 1/2 lengths

back of Lawyer Ron. Trainer Jack van Berg noted the trouble his charge suffered

on the backstretch and believes it cost his colt runner-up honors. Film Fortune

is now 0-for-5 in his career, with his best BRIS Speed rating being a 92, and

he's never gone off at odds of less than 11-1. He's expected back for the $1

million Arkansas Derby (G2) on April 15 and might continue to show more in the

Midwest.