Three-Year-Old Diary

THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY

APRIL 18, 2007

by James Scully

CURLIN (Smart Strike) overwhelmed his Arkansas Derby (G2) rivals in stunning

fashion. He looked like a superstar, winning off by 10 1/2 lengths, and

established himself as the Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite. The Blue Grass S. (G1)

was quite a contrast, with a ridiculously slow pace and a four-horse blanket

finish that was taken by a Polytrack specialist. DOMINICAN (El Corredor) is

three-for-three on artificial surfaces, but winless in four dirt starts.

Curlin turned in a

very professional performance in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby. Now

three-for-three by a combined 28 1/2 lengths, the chestnut colt tracked the pace

through the opening six furlongs. The Steve Asmussen charge effortlessly moved

to the lead turning for home and turned on the afterburners at the eighth pole,

stylishly cruising to the finish line under a hand ride from jockey Robby

Albarado.

"Curlin obviously is a brilliant colt, and he'll get better with experience,"

Asmussen said.

Curlin finished his final eighth in 12 seconds, registering a 110 BRIS Late

Pace rating, and he notched his third straight century-topping Speed figure

(102). A March 25 foal, Curlin's got the talent to win the Kentucky Derby, but

he lacks the seasoning, making his career debut in early February. It's been

more than 100 years since an unraced two-year-old captured the Run for the

Roses.

Comparisons to Bellamy Road are inevitable. Like Curlin, Bellamy Road was a

lightly raced colt who suddenly became the Derby favorite with a smashing 17

1/2-length score in the 2005 Wood Memorial (G1). He finished seventh at 5-2.

Pulpit was an unraced two-year-old who entered the 1997 Derby off a convincing

victory in the Blue Grass S. (G2), but he finished fourth at 5-1. The Derby

wasn't kind to either horse, with Bellamy Road making only one more start and

Pulpit never racing again.

Curlin will attempt to overcome all barriers with his talent. He's the most

impressive three-year-old we've seen this year, and he's the only one who

appears capable of winning the Triple Crown. It's easy to be blown away by his

accomplishments. But I can appreciate horseplayers who take a stand against him,

preferring to wager on a horse with more seasoning that fits the profile of a

Derby winner. It has nothing to do with ability.

The Blue Grass delivered a thrilling finish, with the top four finishers

separated by about a neck, but it seemed like a false race. The pace, with

opening splits in :26, :51 2/5 and 1:16 3/5, was preposterous, and TEUFLESBERG

(Johannesburg) was loose on the lead during the opening three-quarters of a

mile. But an unopposed lead on a soft pace means little over Keeneland's

Polytrack. Dominican rated in fifth nearly the entire way, passing four rivals

in deep stretch to win by a nose.

Runner-up STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) was forced to move early, and

ZANJERO (Cherokee Run) and GREAT HUNTER (Aptitude) were also taken out of their

game by the dawdling pace. I'm inclined to draw a line through the Blue Grass

and ignore it in their past performances. Dominican loves Polytrack and ran his

race on Saturday. After missing nearly the first three months of the year, he's

come on with victories in the Rushaway S. and Blue Grass. However, the chestnut

gelding has never earned a triple-digit Speed rating, and you'll get a big price

on him on Derby Day.

Street Sense probably regressed a little off a hard-fought victory in his

seasonal bow, the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but he still performed admirably,

surging to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile before being passed in the

final jump by Dominican. Following rail-skimming trips in his last two outings,

Calvin Borel kept his mount wide on both turns, and that experience should

benefit him in the Derby. Street Sense is eligible to move forward off this

effort, similar to his improvement last fall from the Breeders' Futurity (G1) to

the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Based at Churchill with Carl Nafzger, the

champion is very comfortable with the feel under the Twin Spires.

Zanjero had trailed by double-digit margins at the first call in his first

two starts this year, but he was only 1 1/2 lengths back of Teuflesberg at the

same stage on Saturday. The Asmussen trainee offered a bid turning for home and

held gamely through the stretch while nearest the rail, which wasn't the place

to be at Keeneland on Saturday, to be beaten only a head. Zanjero will enter the

Derby on the upswing, but he's never earned a triple-digit Speed rating.

Great Hunter wound up fifth, beaten less than two lengths, and he'll probably

be a good price on Derby Day off this effort. I'd recommend throwing the race

out. The Doug O'Neill trainee has the breeding to handle 1 1/4 miles, displayed

excellent two-year-old form and ran well in his first start this year, winning

the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) by 1 1/4 lengths. With his acceleration, Great

Hunter remains an interesting prospect for the Derby.

We witnessed two vastly different prep races on Saturday. We didn't learn

much from the Blue Grass, and the Arkansas Derby left us wondering whether any

horse can derail the Curlin locomotive.

The Lexington S. (G2) and Federico Tesio S. are on tap this weekend.