Three-year-olds & Up Diary

THREE-YEAR-OLDS & UP DIARY

SEPTEMBER 27, 2006

by James Scully

The Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) is five weeks from Saturday and the next two

weekends will have a major impact. Two races will take place this Saturday, the

Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) and Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), and LAVA MAN (Slew City

Slew) will run the following Saturday in the Goodwood Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at

Santa Anita. However, no prep carries more significance than the $750,000 Jockey

Club Gold Cup (G1) on October 7, with three-year-old sensation BERNARDINI (A.P.

Indy) as the center of attention.

Bernardini will make his first start against elders with a five-race winning

streak in tow, blowing out the competition each time, and he's already being

labeled a superstar in some corners. That's still premature, but another

smashing victory from Bernardini will only enhance his reputation and provide a

major boon for the Breeders' Cup. It may hurt the field size, but people will

tune in for the opportunity to see the special horse.

Relatively unknown and too inexperienced for the Kentucky Derby, the Darley-owned

colt burst into prominence with a 5 1/4-length romp in the Preakness S. (G1),

but his impressive victory was overshadowed by the breakdown of Barbaro (Dynaformer). Instead

of pursuing the Belmont S. (G1) three weeks later, Bernardini went to the

sidelines for more than two months. Forgotten about until late

July, he then lit up Saratoga with magnificent wins in the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and

Travers S. (G1), earning a 111 BRIS Speed rating each time.

The scary thing

about Bernardini is his room for improvement. With only six starts, he keeps

getting stronger. With easy wins at 1 1/4 and 1 3/16 miles, distance isn't a

problem. With Speed ratings of 110 or better in his last four starts, the bay

colt is proving to be one of the fastest members of his generation. He's a

superstar in the making.

Like Achilles, Bernardini hasn't shown any initial weakness, but that doesn't mean

he isn't mortal. The Tom Albertrani charge has been able to knock out his challengers

early, running unopposed through the stretch to record easy wins. He led by 5

1/4 lengths at the stretch call in the Preakness, by seven lengths in the Jim

Dandy and 4 1/2 lengths in the Travers. So far, he hasn't had to look another

horse in the eye when it counts most. Change is inevitable, and

eventually, with a quality rival pushing him hard into the stretch, his inexperience

could finally catch up to him. Maybe.

The Jockey Club might prove to be a real test. South American import INVASOR

(Arg) (Candy Stripes) opened his U.S. campaign with solid wins in the Pimlico

Special H. (G1) and Suburban H. (G1), but he really proved his mettle last time

in the Whitney H. (G1), overcoming a less-than-perfect trip to gamely post a

nose decision over a fast-closing rival. Invasor earned an excellent 115 Speed

rating that day, and he owns a terrific turn of foot, registering E2 Pace

ratings of 111, 113 and 114 in his last three outings. He's got the class to at

least make a run at Bernardini.

European invader DYLAN THOMAS (Ire) (Danehill), hero of the Irish Derby

(Ire-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) this season, is a very talented turf

performer, and noted Irish conditioner Aidan O'Brien believes his charge can

transfer his form to the main track in the Jockey Club. SECOND OF JUNE (Louis

Quatorze) could have an impact upon the complexion of the race. Making his third

start off a lengthy layoff in the Woodward S. (G1), Second of June set a solid

pace before weakening only slightly to finish second, beaten only a half-length,

and he'll probably show speed again in the Jockey Club.

The stakes are high for Bernardini. The Breeders' Cup may be the ultimate

objective, but a setback in the Jockey Club would take a lot of luster off the

scintillating colt. Beating him will be an imposing task for his rivals. Bernardini looks good enough to keep rolling, but he still has to prove it.

Lava Man, who is six for six this year and the leading contender for champion

older male honors presently, will cutback to 1 1/8 miles in the Goodwood off his

professional win in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic (G1). If the five-year-old

gelding passes this test, he's expected to be supplemented to the Classic.

BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark), winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1), will step up to

face his older rival and looks like serious pace factor. I fully expect

Brother Derek to play catch-me-if-you-can, but it's difficult to go against the

admirable Lava Man.

The Kentucky Cup Classic and Hawthorne Gold Cup have both produced Breeders'

Cup Classic winners before, but the Kentucky Cup looks like the only race of any

merit this year. Classic mainstay PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer), who has contested the

past four runnings, including a third in last year's Classic at Belmont Park,

will receive his final prep over the Polytrack at Turfway, and Woodward winner

PREMIUM TAP (Pleasant Tap), who isn't Breeders' Cup eligible, will also be in

the line-up. A victory Saturday will likely earn him a supplemental bid.

In other developments, STRONG CONTENDER (Maria's Mon) earned a trip to the

big dance with a one-length triumph in the Super Derby (G2) last Saturday.

Trained by John Ward Jr., Strong Contender rated comfortably in midpack before

launching his rally around the far turn, collared a headstrong LAWYER RON (Langfuhr)

in midstretch, and gradually pulled clear late, finishing 1 1/8 miles in 1:48

3/5. He earned a 106 Speed rating for his best performance to date.

Strong Contender was a leading Kentucky Derby contender earlier this year,

but he fell off the Derby trail after finishing a well-beaten third in the Blue

Grass S. (G1) and skipped the Belmont S. (G1) following another dull third in

the Peter Pan S. (G2). After a brief freshening, Strong Contender easily

triumphed in the Dwyer S. (G2), but he didn't beat much. He suffered a bit of

trouble when finishing third in the Haskell Invitational (G1) and finally put it

all together in the Super Derby. Ward hasn't committed his charge just yet, but

the improving Strong Contender deserves his chance.

Lawyer Ron is an extremely classy individual, but 10 furlongs is probably a

bit beyond his scope, especially when he refuses to settle like he did in the

Super Derby. He pulled the entire way and still managed to open a clear lead at

the top of the stretch, but his early exploits took their toll.

There will be plenty to discuss in two weeks.